20:21 Vision: Twentieth-Century Lessons for the Twenty-first Century [BARGAIN PRICE] (Hardcover)

~ (Author) "THERE ARE many wonderful things about being a journalist..." (more)
Key Phrases: single prism, United States, Soviet Union, European Union (more...)

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Emmott, who predicted in 1989 that Japan's economic ascent would falter (in The Sun Also Sets), now applies his powers of conjecture again to project how broad historical forces will shape the 21st century, based on an analysis of the 20th. Editor in chief of the Economist, Emmott is a believer in the relative benevolence of American dominance and the relative rewards of unleashed capitalism. The two most important dynamics of the 20th century, he says, were the "United States taking over from Britain" as the protector of global order and capitalism's struggle against its authoritarian antagonists. Emmott believes the most crucial questions for the 21st century are whether America "will continue to keep the peace" and whether "capitalism will survive." Assessing the potential threats to American supremacy-China, Japan, the European Union, terrorism and the precariousness of America's commitment to internationalism-Emmott is cautiously optimistic about America's capacity to continue its leadership role. He is sometimes uncritical in prescribing freer markets as a panacea, but his endorsement of capitalism is carefully qualified. He identifies four flaws threatening its survival: Capitalism is "Unpopular," "Unstable," "Unequal" and "Unclean," in the words of his chapter headings. Despite limited government interventions to correct these dysfunctions, Emmott is hopeful that capitalism can expand its domain in the coming century. It is a wide-ranging and speculative project, and Emmott occasionally floats off into a breezy punditry. But mostly, his arguments are well grounded and his vision of the future is insightful.
Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Library Journal

As the Economist's editor in chief contemplates the shift from the prosperous Nineties to today's more sober clime, he asks whether capitalism and America itself will retain their power.
Copyright 2002 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 384 pages
• ISBN-10: 0374279659
• ASIN: B0009W8AWY
• Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 14.4 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 2.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (80 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #1,742,064 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

14 of 14 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars INTERESTING RUMINATIONS, AND NOT ONLY ABOUT CHINA!, April 20, 2004

By	Shashank Tripathi (Gadabout) - See all my reviews (TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

This review is from: 20:21 Vision: Twentieth-Century Lessons for the Twenty-first Century (Hardcover)

I guess I should be fairly glad that I bought this book before reading the reviews here on Amazon, because most reviews about this expansive thoughtpiece seems to veer around the issue of whether Emmott is right about China or not.

The book in fact covers a lot more ground, which could be a good thing (I enjoyed the breadth) or bad (it flip-flops around too many issues, readers who are looking for a definitive opinion on the Big Economic Questions may be underwhelmed.)

While I will admit that this is not as insightful as some of Bill's previous attempts (e.g., his super-accurate analyses of Japan) it book does move from theme to theme rather effortlessly and manages to pull off discourses on an impressive range of subjects, time periods and perspectives. For instance:

(1) JAPAN: The increasing cracks; how it may need to get more nationalistic; how it may need to to accumulate more military might to counter Pyounyang;or to reinvent itself once again to compete with quickly rising Asian neighbors; etc.

(2) CAPITALISM: A fascinating examination of objections to capitalism, which is thought to be Unpopular, Unstable and Unequal. I found this section to be somewhat weak. While the "American model" has pros, it also has cons, and to advocate it as THE model for the entire world to emulate is somewhat panglossian. (Come to think of it, America itself now has differing factions on this question, but we don't see that in this book).

(3) GLOBALIZATION: We get a healthy dose of how the conventional criticism of globalization is inspired by over-sentimentalism or just plain bad data. It's an interesting read though I'd still keep my "Globalization and its Discontents" handy.

(4) TERRORISM: Again, some interesting thoughts and predictions. For instance, Osama and Al Qaeda will be busted. We skimp on discussions of the key drivers of Islamic terrorism, or what American (and the world) needs to do to counter these goings-on.

...etc...

Long and short of it, if you are looking for highly insightful or fresh commentary, you may be somewhat disappointed. But if, like me, you like to sit back with material that eggs you on to think and ponder about the mushy labyrinth of politics and economics, you'll find 20:21 a very satisfying and enjoyable read. At the very least, it is surely NOT only about China.

19 of 21 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Author's further reply, March 13, 2004

By	W.J. Emmott (Melksham, Wiltshire United Kingdom) - See all my reviews

This review is from: 20:21 Vision: Twentieth-Century Lessons for the Twenty-First Century (Paperback)

A short factual note to all reviewers who have questioned my grasp of the FDI data. Check out UNCTAD's figures on FDI flows in 2003, which are now in. You will find that China has not in fact remained number one recipient. It is still a very big recipient, of course, just as I said in my book. But it was overtaken in 2003 by none other than the United States.

TO REPEAT: read the book. It doesn't say China doesn't matter, nor does it say it won't matter. What it does say is that China is growing rapidly from a low base, and will take several decades before it has enough heft to challenge the US. It is like Japan circa 1900, not Japan 1980. It will matter hugely, but has obstacles to overcome before it does, and does carry big political risks--just as Japan did. Bill Emmott

8 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Excellent review of geopolitical trends. But many errors., August 9, 2003

By	Gaetan Lion - See all my reviews (TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

This review is from: 20:21 Vision: Twentieth-Century Lessons for the Twenty-first Century (Hardcover)

Bill Emmott, Chief Editor of The Economist paints a broad brush on current world economic and geopolitical trends. He benchmarks the relative strengths of the U.S., EU, China, and Japan. He also covers Globalization and the challenge of the Islamic countries. His analysis is right on the mark. But, watch out for his facts and stats. They are often wrong. I disclose some of the most egregious examples within my review below. How can the Chief Editor of The Economist be so sloppy with stats and facts beats me. If he had his facts straight, I would have given this book a 5 rating, because otherwise his analysis is excellent.

Regarding the U.S., Bill Emmott is an enthusiastic supporter. He sees the U.S. as the most benevolent hegemonic power in the history of mankind. The U.S. is the first World power that does not attempt to dominate outright, but to prosper by making all other countries prosper. This is manifested by the U.S. ongoing support for international trade, and prosperity Worldwide. He recognizes that the U.S. in its effort to police terrorism will often use unilateral actions. Unlike other European commentators, he is perfectly all right with that. He sees U.S. unilateralism as the inevitable result of the number one power assuming its responsibilities in the World arena. If the World does not have a leading dominant power, it typically leads to chaos, tension, and warfare.

However, Bill Emmott grossly overstated the military power of the U.S. He stated that U.S. defense spending is nearly 10 times greater than the next 14 countries put together. This is absurd. The facts are that U.S. defense spending is 12% greater than the next 14 countries put together. Also, the U.S. defense spending represents nearly 50% of World defense spending. That is strong enough. It is unexplainable how the editor of The Economist could miss such basic stats.

However, he is right on regarding his analysis of the U.S. success. The U.S. economic success is due to its much higher risk tolerance in the business arena. This has created a superior climate for risk taking, innovation, technology, entrepreneurship, capital formation, productivity, and rising living standard. This risk taking mentality has created a virtuous cycle of economic growth. Along the same lines, the U.S. has far more flexible labor markets than anywhere else, as U.S. companies are much freer to hire and fire employees in response to the ups and downs of business cycles.

China is an emerging economic power. Its economic power will translate into stronger assertiveness in World Affairs. The U.S. will have to deal with this emerging political power, and it won?t be easy. The Taiwan issue will continue to be a thorn in the side of the U.S. China relationship. Over time, China wants to takeover Taiwan. And, an abrupt disruption of China?s communist party would make such a takeover increasingly likely. Obviously, this would be a great source of tension between China and the U.S.

Japan current position in World standing is steadily declining. It has a lot of economic resource and human capital. But, right now it is being wasted due the government?s refusal to clean up the country financial mess. Japan will be stuck in ongoing economic stagnation until it tackles its numerous financial problems, it deregulates its economy, and open its markets. This is a tall order for Japan, and the outlook is for ongoing economic stagnation for a long time. This may make the political establishment vulnerable to extremists.

Bill Emmott grossly overstates the economic performance of the EU. He suggests that the EU economy has grown much faster than the U.S. over the past two decades. Only in your dreams Mr. Emmott, the truth is just the contrary. During the past two decades, the U.S. GDP has grown by 3.2% per year vs. only 2.2% for the EU countries (per OECD data). Again, how can you explain that the chief Editor of The Economist would flunk this question. Besides that Emmott mentions a few European trends including their reliance on exhausting periods of "muddling through." He describes muddling through as finding uncomfortable (often ineffective) compromises to accommodate each country's concerns among an ever-widening group of countries and issues. He views this process as often maddening, and the main reason why the EU will not play a dominant role in World affairs.

His analysis of globalization is sound. He considers globalization as a positive economic force around the World. He notes that half a century ago there were few rich countries and a majority of poor countries. Now, the situation has nearly reversed itself because of globalization. He adds that poor countries have not been hurt by globalization and capitalism, but rather by their own poor government policies and their lack of institutional foundation to allow for progress.

He indicates that the Islamic countries are struggling for self respect, as they are obsessed by their historical memories of the Islamic Golden Age from 700 to 1200 AD when Islam was far ahead of the West. Unfortunately, poor government policies have set these countries backward, and has created a [influenced] by Mosques anti American teaching become terrorists.

Terrorism can't be fought adequately through the international institutional frameworks, as terrorists have no consideration for international laws and treaties. The author sees the U.S. unilateral actions as the only potent way to counter terrorism, and render our planet safer. This is a rather positive perspective coming from a European. I gather this reflects the author's British nationality, as the U.K. has a pro Anglo Saxon stand which is much different from Europe?s mainland.