Customer Reviews

2009 Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster

5 star:		(16)
4 star:		(2)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

I am a big Forecaster fan but the one thing about the book is that it rarely breaks much new ground. Usually there is a new idea or two that is presented - some kind new strategy or new statistic - but that's about it. The rest is just updated player profiles and stats to reflect the coming 2009 season, as well as the glossaries that explain everything. Personally, as someone who buys the book every year, I wasn't disappointed, but they didn't exceed my expectations either.

That's not necessarily bad, and if you've never read the Forecaster before, you will definitely get a LOT out of it. There are a ton of stats you might not have known about before (strand rate, line drive rates, hit rates, etc) and the book does a great job explaining how to use them. This book is definitely a "teach a man to fish" book rather than "give a man some fish" book - Shandler's methods will change the way you look at baseball statistics for the better.

For people who are more concerned with fantasy baseball projections and useful fantasy info than commentary and analysis for "real baseball" this might be a better book than the Baseball Prospectus. But I personally like the Prospectus better and I think there's enough info in there that you could use it for fantasy prep, albeit with a bit more difficulty.

OK, that was heresy.

Nonetheless this book is the standard by which other Fantasy books should be judged. Shandler and his merry band at Baseball HQ continue to explore the ways in which on-field results can be reflected statistically. Then they pursue new methods to interpret the data and project future on-field performance.

If you already visit the Baseball HQ website, then some of the essays may be redundant. They are still worth reading and are as entertaining as ever.

The player descriptions are light and pithy, yet full of insight. I pore over this book for hours and enjoy every minute of it.

Let the record show that I am not a fantasy baseball participant: I have only participated in one such league, and it was a season long home run derby. I think I finished third or fourth, if it's of any consequence to you. I've only participated in one other fantasy venture - a hockey league that I drafted my players and promptly forgot about it. I don't even know where I stand in that league.

While I don't participate in fantasy sports, I certainly appreciate the analysis and insight that those who do have brought to the table for discussion. When you are serious about the league you are playing in, and by serious I mean willing to put money out on your predictions, you want the best information as possible.

That is what Ron Shandler and his crew are trying to deliver, and is what they once again succeed at doing, of course with the all important disclaimers.

When I spoke with Mr. Shandler last year about his 22nd edition, he was careful to remind all of us that right now, the best projection systems are only able to achieve about 70% accuracy. That number is still in effect with the 23rd edition, so bear in mind that there is still a fairly large amount of space that can't be nailed down.

Along with that, it's tough to be critical of the projections that the book puts forth because we won't know their accuracy until after the season, which isn't the best time to put out a review of a book such as this. So I'm leaving the projection side alone, and focusing on the commentary and analysis portions of the book, which I find to be the real juicy parts and the ones that almost any fan can get into, regardless of whether or not they participate in fantasy baseball.

For me, the first 50 pages of the 271 in the book are where the goodies lie - Shandler and his contributors do a remarkable job explaining their thoughts and strategies in a way that makes it easy to understand and gives the reader an understanding of the trends that shape player performance and valuation.

If anything, the book is brutally honest - case in point, The Gravity Principles, mentioned on page 23, which basically state that it is incredibly hard to be good, and that all levels of success are susceptible to disappearing at any time. Likewise, it's much harder to get yourself out of a slump than it is to maintain a level of success.

The Baseball Forecaster also establishes age and performance markers that help you really see if a prospect or player is worth picking up or not. Having crunched the data on thousands of players over many, many years, they have developed a fairly accurate way to look at a player and see what he might be capable of. Again, by no means a definitive set of criteria, but something that does provide a guide tempered by historical research.

As I read the book, I began feeling that I could make the argument that this is as much a life philosophy title as it is a baseball book focusing on fantasy projections. It strips down the task of trying to predict player performance to looking at "component skills analysis," a much easier thing to wrap your head around.

Which is why I enjoy the book so much - while it deals in statistics and projections, it maintains a level of approachability that other books don't. It also manages to throw in a good amount of humor - some laugh out loud funny, some not - but it manages to keep the book from getting too heavy. Instead of just being page after page of numbers, it helps you look at the traits a player exhibits, both good and bad, and how that fits into his makeup and thus affects his performance.

Using a good amount of well-known players as examples, they clarify the concepts even further, something that will be appreciated by those both familiar with fantasy baseball and those just wanting a better understanding of how players get valued for what they bring to the park everyday.

The Baseball Forecaster 2009 presents the opportunity for any fan who wants to better understand the performance side of baseball to do just that, and in a format that should keep you engaged while not bogging you down with too many numbers. Not to say that there aren't a good amount of stats and terms put forth - but think of it like this: remember when you had to take a class in college that was taught by several professors? You'd ask your friends which professor made the material more enjoyable, and you tried to get his or her class. The same goes with this - Professor Shandler and his book make player valuation an approachable subject for those who might otherwise be intimidated by it, while keeping his credibility with his upper-level students who want more information and knowledge.

Shandler asks you to leave antiquated statistics like ERA and batting average behind in favor of looking at performance rates - but he doesn't expect you to make the jump on your own. The explanation for his requests are always present, and his rationale is clear. If you're still looking at the scoreboard to see what a guy is hitting or how many wins the starting pitcher has, this will be a bit of a departure for you, but the net is never taken away; you're just reminded why you won't need it.

I've been buying this book annually for better than a decade. I've always considered it a valuable resource in preparing for table and roto baseball drafts.

But I'm very disappointed with the 2009 edition. It's loaded with errors. For example, it lists a 2007 line of MLE's for Daniel Murphy of the Mets being calculated based upon his stats supposedly compiled in AA ball. The problem is that Murphy played his entire 2007 season in A ball, for which they don't do MLE's because A-ball stats aren't projectable under the system. So God only knows where these numbers came from.

I've found a lot of other errors - players being listed as having played AA when they actually played AAA, or vice versa. These are serious erros for a guy like me, who conducts his own independant evaluation of the info provided and expects 100% accuracy.

Economic downturn or no, they need to bring back the proofreaders they apparently laid off. I'm very disappointed. This is not the quality I've come to expect from Shandler Enterprises.

Can't put it down.
Breaks the previous 5 years into pieces that help you track trends.
Advice: Don't always go by what the projections/blurb says, make up your own mind and this book will be far more use to you.
A must read.

I have bought this annual for the last 4 years and I am more amazed year after year. Shandler comes as close as possible to predicting the final numbers for every major leaguer while giving you all the numbers you could possibly need to predict who might be in-line for a breakout and who might be in for a "down" year. His love for the game is shown on every page and if you value your fantasy baseball team then this is a must own item. Great book!

This is the best of the best, and still improving. This is my 7th year buying the book and they have all been great. Many years ago I had a number of similar ideas about using component skills, but they never jelled until I ran across this. Every year new and newer subtle strategies and studies grace the pages of the book. Even if you're not a numbers cruncher, it's a great read. I agree, this book is the standard by which other fantasy books should be judged. No fluff here!

I have used Ron Shandlers predictions for years and one of my leagues most dominating teams. Some points I would like to share. Ron does a great job of finding the key factors that contribute to a player either bouncing back or breaking out. I have noticed though he is a lot better on the pitcher side then the hitter side. I use Rotoman's Fantasy Guide for the hitters. Still this is a great book to find sleepers.

This is a great book for everything baseball. Shandler and Bill James are two of the best at forecasting and I usually buy each of their books every year in anticipation of the upcoming Baseball seasons. They are great for reference when drafting fantasy lineups and such.

i annually buy most all of the baseball books related to fantasy, and imho this is the single best such resource. shandler is more likely to offer meaningful comments about a player, and less likely than other authors to put forth the hedging, balking commentaries that seem designed to avoid going out on a limb in any way. in an imprecise field, this book is the first and often the only one i refer to during the season.