Customer Reviews

The 500 Year Delta: What Happens After What Comes Next

5 star:		(11)
4 star:		(4)
3 star:		(2)
2 star:		(3)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

You really have to approach this book with your baloney detectors on 'High.' There's a lot of excellent, insightful analysis on what's going on with the change 'jerk' (where 'jerk' is defined as the rate of change of the rate of change -- the acceleration of acceleration) of recent years, where changes in technology drive societal changes at an expanding pace. There's also a whole lot of unfocused hogwash and one-true-wayism; these kids take themselves quite seriously, in that bedrock way that people who think they *don't* take themselves too seriously sometimes do. You can sift through the bullpuckey to find a good haul of useful nuggetry, but if you swallow this book whole, you'll find that the sharp corners don't go down so easy.

In short the book could have been about 60% shorter. At times the hypothesis drawn are illuminating but very often the authors are spending entirely too much time to support their insights. My feeling is that anyone reading a book such as this doesn't necessarily need a whole lot of convincing as long as there is some sound rationale and telling examples to support the theories.

Having just completed the book I would recommend that anyone interested in picking up the book just look at the last 15 pages to get a sense of the nature of the book where the authors make predictions regarding the next 500 months and the next 500 years.

There are however some very keen insights on the power and use of technology (connectivity), tribalism, the role of corporations and government, business and social constructs, the importance of constant education, the nature of chaos, the power of the consumer... and almost all of this is addressed from primarily a marketing perspective.

There was very little that was written that I disagreed with but I feel like the same thing could have been said in many fewer words.

I couldn't agree more with the reviewer from "Sodom-on-the-Bay." Beware authors whose self-esteem rests so strongly on their image as iconoclasts. Beware them particularly when they resort to "paradox" as an explanation for any line of reasoning that leaves them painted into a corner. On the other hand, these guys are trying to take a fresh look at business and marketing conundrums, and their stories often yield interesting insights which, unfortunately, they're not so great at articulating or generalizing from. Instead, they opt for sounding "deep" by claiming that the stories defy traditional analysis. A useful rule of thumb might be to skim any paragraph that deals in abstracts (high balderdash quotient there) and pay more attention to the anecdotes.

The book does what good books should: it makes you think.

However, the authors are (1) derivative in some cases (much of their work can be found in Thomas Handy's explorations of how the world of work is changing, such as in his book, The Age of Unreason, c. 1989); (2) don't footnote/cite their statistics (eg, 12 percent of Americans trust public-interest messages from large corporations - says who?); and (3) are somewhat "new-agey" (Part Four uses subheads pulled from the Noble Truths of Buddhism, not to imply that Buddhism is a new age religion).

They criticize macroeconomics, stating "when consumers control the market equation, they can have whatever it is that they want." Huh? Consumers have unlimited resources? Since when?

A good fast skim if you are familiar with changes in the world of work. Neat trivia (list of things that existed in 1960 that no longer exist today). Wild projections for 500 years hence.

I found on my second review that I argued more with the authors (in the margins of the book) than on the first take (which was on an airplane). That said, I'm surprised the book is not on Amazon.Com's top 50 business or computing lists.

Good start, but lacks coherent thought.

What a book! Anyone looking for Answers or to know what the future will be need not apply. The author's whole point is that there are no answers, and we have to manage our way through the paradoxes as best we can. This is important, unfortunately this point is not always clear in the text - sometimes one is left hanging, wondering whether a question has been asked or a statement made. (hence the lost point, chaps) Maybe I just don't translate American all that well, being English and divided only by language! What Paradoxes? Things are getting bigger. And smaller. Things are going faster. And slower. Things are going global. And local. So the key is to know your self (a point they do make) and this puts me in mind of a quote I read (and can't find so I'll misquote it if I may:- "Give me the strength to change the things I need to change, the perserverence to put up with the things I can't change and the wisdom to know the difference." I am also intrigued by the 'back to the future' angle the authors use - 'futurists better be good historians' sounds like another paradox to me. Overall a good read - a waypoint on the journey with a few good hints and tips. Some other waypoints I have found on mine- Having a few good heros helps (strangely there are not many of these in this in the book) - so check out Horatio Nelson (Christopher Hibbert) - how can one so flawed become so great? The Art of War by Sun Tzu (full text is on the net), I have a printed version with a forward by James Clavell - again notable in its absence. Built to Last (Collins & Porrass - two more Stanford Alumini) which treats the Paradox question as a dualistic concept from Chinese religious philosophy (!). Bon Voyage!

I read this book when it was first published. It changed my view on everything that was going then and was a catalyst for creating a totally different life that I am so much happier with now. I ran across this book the other day while looking for my cat, I sat down to read for a while and still find many relevant and comfy thoughts. I still use matras I learned from the 500 year deltra today and they serves me well in my everyday professional life. This is a good book to read if you need to change your prespective, life or need courage in your decision making.

While centered somewhat on marketing perspectives and therefore containing the inevitable irritating references to current brilliant gambits in this field, this book is an intriguing read and draws some very interesting conclusions about trends in our behavior and the possibilities for our collective future. The Delta metaphor is quite apt and provides an understandable premise for what might otherwise be a very complex idea. The actual predictions for the near and distant future contained in the book are unexpected and thought provoking. This book is well worth reading if you seek some insight to the warp and weft of the fabric that makes up today; and what the pattern of the cloth may look like for tomorrow.

Originally, I became interested in this book by reading an excerpt printed in Wired magazine. Wired only printed the glossary of the book but that was enough to pique my interest. In general, I think that is how the book should be approached. It is thought-provoking and interesting but should not be taken too seriously. It is certainly enjoyable, especially if you enjoy Wired.

Making sense of our world, never an easy or a completed task (our pretensions regarding the latter notwithstanding!), just got substantially easier with the appearance of The 500 Year Delta. The book works on several levels, not the least of which is its utility as a survival guide to the new ways and definitions of work and relationships which await us as our separate rivers dump us into the roiling, clear-as-mud, yet nutriemt-rich waters of that Delta. The authors' uncommon sense (e.g., that corporations will have embassies, not governmets; that governments' chief values will be to effect transfer payments and provide entertainment, etc.) hit at the very foundations of our value systems. They are, nonetheless, cogently and coherently conceived and presented. Accepting their theses will lead the reader along seemingly tortuous paths, and will require several iterations of what the literary critics used to term the "willing suspension of disbelief." Those suspensions will be frequent, and some will be of serious length. Particularly challenging will be the authors' insistence that the utility of reason has played itself out, and their consigning of hierarchies to the dustbin of history. A must read for those of us in government service (an emerging oxymoron?), but not recommended for those therein in management positions!