The 90% Solution: Higher Returns, Less Risk [Hardcover]

David L. Rogers (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: October 6, 2006

The 90% Solution is about understanding the most important factors impacting today’s stock market, how they influence performance—and how they can be used to produce higher returns. In it, author David Rogers challenges traditional investment strategies, then points the way to new and alternative investment methods that can help you rise above the “expectations for mediocrity” that seem to dominate conventional investment thinking.

Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

Understand the market and then put it to work for you, rather than be its victim.

As much as 90% (and more) of the performance of today's mutual funds is explained by the concurrent performance of the overall stock market. For managers of these funds, even the so-called "5-Star" funds, that 90% is a problem because they are hard-pressed to outperform the market averages. Underperform, or just match the market averages, and they are certain to earn mostly mediocre returns. Yet, for those who know how to turn the market's influence into benefit, that 90% represents a potential solution toward earning exceptional returns.

The 90% Solution is about understanding the most important factors impacting today's stock market, how they influence performance—andhow they can be used to produce higher returns. Author David Rogers, well known for his skill in analyzing stock market trends, challenges traditional investment strategies, then points the way to new and alternative investment methods that can help investors rise above the "expectations for mediocrity" that seem to dominate conventional thinking.

Rogers starts by looking at how the financial services industry drifted away from the pursuit of superior returns. He challenges the old "buy and hold" investment model as, at best, specious reasoning and, at worst, a big con. By "weathering" market cycles instead of using them, he argues, investors subject themselves—and their returns—to the market's whims. Combine this with the financial services industry's "oversell" of diversification and you end up with a quasi-index fund—fine for what it is, but never a real winner and rarely a leader.

After demonstrating the 90% role the market plays in driving the performance of nearly every well-diversified portfolio—even 5-Star mutual funds—Rogers offers solutions for earning superior returns, including:

• The three primary paths toward superior stock market returns
• His personal path toward using overall market direction
• Investing for market ups and downs while better managing risk
• How alternative investments, such as hedge funds and mutual fund asset allocation strategies, are ideal for putting the market's power and influence to work
• Other market timing resources

Written in an easy, conversational style, yet conveying many sophisticated analytical methods,The 90% Solution is packed with Rogers's wisdom—hard won from nearly thirty years in the investment marketplace. Whether you're a fund manager or an individual investor, this book will be the cornerstone of your own new pursuit of superior returns.

From the Back Cover

Discover how to achieve superior investment performance

"I enjoyed this book on several levels. First: I appreciated the factual information about stock market behavior and the increasingly sophisticated packaged products being offered to mitigate market risk. Second: I was reminded how little I know about market timing and how it can help lower the risk exposure of any portfolio. Third, and most interesting of all: I really enjoyed the personal side of David Rogers's career."
—Binkley Shorts, Equity Portfolio Manager Wellington Management Co.

"I have followed David Rogers's market forecasting for many years. He is very good (not many really are). David's book, The 90% Solution is enjoyable and educational. I found the historical reviews particularly interesting and I agree with David's most important theme regarding the importance of market timing wholeheartedly. In an age where hedge funds and brokerage trading desks control over half of total market value, the adage 'timing is everything' is critically important to investors as well as traders."
—Otis T. Bradley, Managing Director of Research, Gilford Securities

"David is a very thorough and dedicated analyst, and everyone, both novice and professional, could learn something from reading this book. No one has all the answers when it comes to successful investing, however David's approach can help even the most remedial investor secure better-than-average returns in his or her portfolio. I highly recommend you read each page with care."
—Jack Norberg, Chairman, Standard Investment Chartered, Inc., and General Partner, Buttonwood Tree Value Partners

"This book demystifies the hocus-pocus and debunks the bad rap that market timing has attracted. Time will show why David Rogers is one of the unheralded investment gurus of our day."
—Craig Pieringer, Portfolio Manager, Wells Capital Management

"David Rogers breaks through the cobweb-clichés about 'buying and holding,' spun for years by most stock brokers and mutual fund salesmen. It is high time that market timing be revisited and its best techniques be shared with the investing public. Rogers is to be commended for spotlighting this timely need."
—William Schmidt, PhD, President, Tiger Software

"This book has to be on the reading list of every serious investor. David Rogers tells us why and how using the overall stock market's direction is the best way to improve portfolio performance. He knows what he is talking about because his performance ranks among the best in the world of active money management."
—Roger J. Schreiner, CEO, Schreiner Capital Management

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 256 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (October 6, 2006)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0471770817
• ISBN-13: 978-0471770817
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.3 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 15.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (12 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,197,409 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

17 of 18 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Read this before you buy, February 8, 2007

By 

T. Lynch - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The 90% Solution: Higher Returns, Less Risk (Hardcover)

This is an infomercial in book form. He definetly keeps you interested with all he talks about. Every chapter you finish reading makes you want to read more. Each chapter you wonder if the next will be the one the author will reveal his secret. Finally, he tells the reader he will not devulge his secret because he spent so many years developing it. He explains you can take 20yrs and develope your own system or use his investment firm to do it for you.
David Rogers is very brilliant. Instead of paying a TV station to advertise, he writes a book and people pay him to read it. His last chapter is filled with other sources where you can pay and receive similiar results (all are probably paid sponsors). What a genius.
His system sounded interesting and his results look good. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and sent for information about his investment firm. I recieved the package today. The minimum investment is $25000.
The bottom line: If you are looking for a book to help you with your own investing (as I was), this book is not for you. There are many other better books out there that actually give you useful information. Not this one.
Furthermore, you can get most of the information in his book for free. Just Google search his name and read the same information on his firms (Watauga Equity Management) web page ...free.
Hopefully you have read this before you purchased the book. I would at least like to think I have saved someone some money.

9 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars eyes wide open, October 3, 2006

By 

Matthew A. Papazian - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The 90% Solution: Higher Returns, Less Risk (Hardcover)

Fascinating insights into the cycles of the markets. Mr Rogers presents a compelling rebuttal to the "buy and hold" crowd. The premise of the book that 90% of a mutual fund / money manager's return is dictated by the market direction should be ignored by investors at their peril. He shows that there are actually long periods that being out and in cash is superior to holding the "market" when the "market" has decided that down is better than up. I wish he could have provided a little better insight to some of his methodologies, but I guess if he did they'd stop working. And finally the answer to that message about "if you missed the 40 best days in the market" propaganda we keep being fed. He demonstrates that thinking for yourself is always better than having someone do it for you. His independent reasoning has enabled him to achieve superior returns - a lesson we all can learn.

4 of 6 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars ACTUALLY THE 100% SOLUTION, December 14, 2006

By 

JOAN M ANDERSON - See all my reviews

This review is from: The 90% Solution: Higher Returns, Less Risk (Hardcover)

I WAS DRAWN TO 'THE 90% SOLUTION: HIGHER RETURNS, LESS RISK' BY ITS AUDACIOUS TITLE AND GOLD STAR ENDORSERS ON THE BACK COVER--AND I WAS NOT DISAPPOINTED. THIS BOOK IS BOUND TO BE CONTROVERSIAL BECAUSE IT IS IRREVERENTLY CRITICAL OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY'S SATISFACTION WITH ACHIEVING ''AVERAGE'' RESULTS. IT EFFECTIVLEY CHALLENGES THE INDUSTRY'S ''BUY AND HOLD'' MAINSTAY, EVEN DOCUMENTING WHY THE CORNERSTONE OF THE INDUSTRY'S PURSUIT OF MEDIOCRITY MAY EVEN BE A FARCE. SUPERBLY WRITTEN, THE AUTHOR MAKES A COMPELLING CASE FOR OVERALL MARKET TIMING AS THE SUREST WAY TOWARD SUPERIOR INVESTMENT RESULTS. HE RECOUNTS HIS OWN PERSONAL JOURNEY DISCOVERING AND EMBRACING MARKET TIMING. HE DOESN'T GIVE AWAY HIS SECRET FORMULAS, BUT DOES GO INTO CONSIDERABLE DETAIL ABOUT HIS CONCEPTUAL APPROACH TO CONTRARIAN THINKING AS A PERSONAL PREFERENCE THAT HAS YIELDED SOME PRETTY HEADY RESULTS. HIS DISCUSSION OF CYCLES AND CONTRARIAN THINKING ALONE IS WORTH THE PRICE OF ADMISSION, BUT THE INSIGHTS THAT HE SHARES FROM HIS PERSONAL EXPERIENCES ALONG THE WAY ARE AN ENRICHMENT FEW AUTHORS PROVIDE.