5 of 6 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Albert K., February 1, 2010
This review is from: Accelerating out of the Great Recession: How to Win in a Slow-Growth Economy (Hardcover)
While I am usually rather sceptical about Consultants who are explaining the world - this book truly does add crystal clear insights. It not only puts the financial and economic crisis into a historic perspective, it also seperates root causes from secondary fallouts, it distinguishes temporary symptoms from longlasting changes.
All very readable and easy to digest, rather entertaining - particularly the elaborate company case studies and analogies from last century - and their (non-)relevance to the current situation. I found the authors' analysis and outlook to be extremely helpful in order to define what the "new normal" we all will have to adjust to is going to look like. Mandatory reading for everyone who has to make long range and global investment decisions (or who is affected by them).
Help other customers find the most helpful reviews
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
No
14 of 19 people found the following review helpful:
2.0 out of 5 stars
Superficial -, February 9, 2010
This review is from: Accelerating out of the Great Recession: How to Win in a Slow-Growth Economy (Hardcover)
David Rhodes and Daniel Stelter are Europe-based senior partners in the Boston Consulting Group. In "Accelerating Out of the Great Recession" they purport to offer solid advice on how American businesses can survive and thrive in these trying times. They begin by observing that it would take a 32% increase in China's private consumption to offset a 5% reduction in U.S. consumer spending - something they believe is not going to happen. Thus, when combined with various spending inhibitors, they conclude business leaders should instead look for growth in the U.S., albeit slower than the past. Accompanying that slower growth will be unwanted increased efforts at government regulation, anti-immigration action, and trade protectionism. Other economic drags include downward price pressure due to deleveraging, and bank reluctance to lend due to their failure to recognize the extent of their potential losses and recapitalize.
Continuing, the authors point out that U.S. household wealth shrank an estimated $13.9 trillion (22%) in the last few years, while the savings rate rose from -2.7% in 2005 to +5.9% in 2009. Both factors reduce demand. Meanwhile, the GDP-boosting U.S. trade deficit (4.6% of GDP) cannot continue, unemployment and underemployment remain high, and most surveyed business leaders are not optimistic about soon returning to record 'pre-recession' profits.
Soaring U.S. health care costs (17.3% in 2009, expected to hit 25% in 2025 and 37% in 2050 absent fundamental change - Congressional Budget Office) receive almost no attention in "Accelerating . . .," despite the obvious fact it cannot continue. (Suffice it to say, health care reform will not occur on its own, and will have major impact.) Rhodes and Stelter continue, finally concluding that consumers will become more "value-conscious," obvious old news to most. Eg. Guess what has driven Wal-Mart from nothing to become the world's largest public corporation in 40 years and the U.S. largest grocery retailer in 21 years, while department-store market share fell from 38% in 1995 to 19% in 2002? Home equity financing reached almost $1 trillion in 2006 (7% of GDP), before home values began tanking - guess what that does to demand, especially for big-ticket items? Up to 70% of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages in some areas - those homeowners will not lead any economic recovery, period. Just two years ago the U.S. finance industry generated 41% of corporate profits - that won't be repeated soon either.
Worse yet, Rhodes and Stelter are oblivious to the reduced impact and opportunity from today's consumer sales. Decades ago when Americans bought a car, toaster, toy, shirt, tank of gasoline, or a shrimp dinner they not only boosted retail sales, but generated added activity for the U.S. auto, appliance, textile, toy, oil, and fishing industries and their U.S. employees as well. Today, that second level of activity is largely gone, both in the preceding areas and many, many more - mostly off-shored to China. Thus, adding a dollar of U.S. consumer sales not only requires more credit than before ($1 in the 1950s, $3 in the 1990s, and $5 in the last decade - per the authors), but also has far less impact on total GDP. Regaining that stronger impact requires protectionism, despite Rhodes and Stelter's unconvincing counter-arguments, unless one proposes ballooning the trade deficit - which they also oppose. What does this mean for business leaders - that major economic improvement requires government to reverse course on 'Free Trade.'
The second section of "Accelerating . . ." covers suggested business strategies. Those looking for new, sophisticated strategies and insights, however, will not find any. The material is simply a superficial rehash of Finance 101 - protect your cash position, negotiate with suppliers, focus on inventory management and reduce debt levels, divest non-core businesses, focus on bloated R&D, focus on innovation, . . .. Easy to say, not so easy to do when surrounded by excess world production capacity (U.S. - 20%, Japan - 15%, European Union - 18%, India - 30%, China - 40%, Brazil - 30%), with Asian producers especially advantaged by much, much lower operating and capital costs. Clearly, America's economic future will not be found through just working harder at more of the same.
Bottom-Line: The U.S. cannot accelerate out of the great recession without creating a new, significant, sustainable, strategic advantage, or at least a similar defense - especially in the industries of tomorrow. The New York Times (1/30/2010) reports that China is already the world leader in green energy wind and solar power, and pushing hard to build nuclear reactors and more efficient coal-fired plants. It also is leading in electric bicycles, and the "smart money" (Buffett's Berkshire) is betting on a Chinese state-owned company developing electric cars and their batteries. Meanwhile, China is also significantly boosting R&D efforts in nanotechnology and bio-sciences. All this while erecting trade barriers to outside competition in new areas, and refusing to revalue its currency - thus protecting old areas as well. Little, if any of these current (or former) initiatives occurred through purely private initiative, or simply across-the-board Chinese business tax-cuts. Nonetheless, "Accelerating Out of the Great Recession" ignores or takes a negative posture on the potential role of U.S. government, probably because many Americans believe it should have no role in private enterprise.
China became a modern power by facing down its anti-capitalist roots en route to a heavy government role in lifting private businesses; further, its on-going economic vibrancy is assisted by much, much lower health care costs (admittedly the government is working to expand this area) and an undervalued currency. The U.S. similarly needs to face down its anti-government roots to help maintain our modern status through government-led health care reform, severely limiting illegal immigration, imposing tariffs to counter China's under-valued currency, and guiding/helping the development and protection of nascent industries.
Help other customers find the most helpful reviews
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
No
3 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars
A Playbook For The Future For Business Owners And Entrepreneurs, February 19, 2010
This review is from: Accelerating out of the Great Recession: How to Win in a Slow-Growth Economy (Hardcover)
The authors do an exceptional job of describing the current economy and economic decisions leading into the current situation in layman terms. They also effectively layout the potential future outcomes based on actions being taken worldwide right now. The book also does a great job of explaining the global impact of U.S. economic decisions as they relate to the bailout and more.
This book is essential reading right now because it is one of the best reviews of the changing consumer mindset as well as building a road map for the future for businesses. They show what businesses that expect to grow in the future must do now. They don't offer pie in the sky take profit approaches, rather they focus on the solid opportunities that exist for companies to build a foundation for a solid future.
The authors use examples from the great depression, the recessions of the 70's/80's as well as Japan's lost decade to build a model of the future. They are also quick to point out that while the bailout of the U.S. economy probably stopped us from sliding into a deep depression, that those ideas were floated during the Great Depression but not implemented, so we have no idea what will happen as a result, it may take a completely different path and we could see another deeper depression in the short term, especially if there (and there likely will be) another huge round of foreclosures.
An interesting fact from the book was that in 1950 it took one dollar in credit to create one dollar of Gross Domestic Product, today it takes five dollars of credit to create one dollar of GDP. With tightening credit restrictions it makes it much harder for the economy to grow.
The study of the new consumer behavior is very astute (though some would say you might have already observed some of the behavior) and will help those in retail particularly thing through new strategies.
My only criticism of the book is that I'd have liked to see a much more detailed section on how different sectors could respond and a section on projected growth segments. Exceptional book, quick read, and there is something for every business owner in the book.
Help other customers find the most helpful reviews
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
No
