Customer Reviews

After the Fall: Opportunities and Strategies for Real Estate Investing in the Coming Decade

5 star:		(11)
4 star:		(1)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

This is the most dissappointing book I have ever read. Instead of "Opportunities and Strategies for Real Estate Investing in the Coming Decade" as the book advertises, this is just an extremely boring, drawn out, painfully trivial, detailed discussion of recent real estate markets. It's a history of what has happened in the last few years in real estate, not a discussion of how you can take advantage of the current situation to invest now. After reading the book you end up with a splitting headache, a feeling of vastly wasted time, and no clue how to invest in the current real estate market.

The book is organized into five parts, with parts one and two dealing with commercial real estate, parts three and four dealing with residential real estate, and part five dealing with leisure real estate. The book contains twelve chapters- wisely ending before chapter thirteen (get the pun?!?). Each of these chapters could easily be expanded into a book in and of itself. Each chapter is divided into three main sections- where we were in the space, where we are in the space and where we are likely headed in the space of interest. Bergsman relies heavily on insider anecdotes and commentary, particularly within the where we are headed sections. Each chapter also ends with a bonus box that highlights a particular property type or trend within the sector. I found some of these to be informative, but others to be, well, filler. Then again, others might find all of them useful, or perhaps find the ones I felt to be most useful to be filler. Still, the bonus boxes were very useful overall, and introduced quite a few key concepts that were new to me. Bergsman provides lot of critical insight in the introduction and afterword sections. One small demerit that I found with the book was that the notes were not very extensive. Additionally, at the end of the book, he also could have included a list of sources- books, references, websites and whatnot, on each of the key real estate sectors for further reading.

Bergsman makes a successful attempt at being even-handed throughout the book. He never boosts real estate in general, and he never cries doom and gloom. Bergsman remains realistic throughout, acknowledges the really challenging situation at present. Although I felt that he was a bit too sanguine about the future of real estate over the coming decade, I agree with his stance that the real estate cycle must be respected, and that eventually, things will improve (I just don't agree with his seven-year cycle, which I believe he incorrectly inferred from the last real estate fiasco; the forces at work in today's market are quite different from those that prevailed in the last Great Bust, so that leads me to think that the outcome will be a bit different this go-round. This slump will be a bit deeper and take a bit longer to work through than he optimistically predicts.).

In passing, the policy makers have narrowly avoided a hard landing this time around, and are hoping (and praying and begging) for a soft landing. However, the plane-that-is-real-estate still faces considerable headwinds and turbulence in the years ahead, and I fully expect a bumpy descent and a cock-eyed landing (after all, the airport-that-is-the-regulatory agencies sprayed foam on the runway- bailed out the major banks, sank interest rates to below-the-basement and pumped the economy full of cash- for a reason). A lot of what Bergsman had to say simply confirmed my own suspicions, but a few things in his book did stand out. These are:

Real estate prices in many sectors and geographic markets still have a ways to fall.
In keeping with this, a lot of the serious money is still on the sidelines.
When the dust finally settles, a lot of markets won't be coming back.
Some markets will restructure, and as a result will look radically different than they did pre-bust.
A select few markets will actually come out of this ongoing fiasco a lot stronger.

Astute readers of this book will pay very close attention to the recurring theme in each chapter of retrenchment and concentration. As to where and when and how to invest (ignoring issues of geography), with an eye to the small investor, in my opinion I would say that 1) going forward most small investors will be shut out of the better deals at least for the next two to five years, 2) most of the available deals will favor the investors willing to defer an eventual payoff for at least five to seven years and 3) as for making those few deals that immediately pay off based on the fundamentals, it's all about the timing and the time for such deals just isn't right yet. The time to get in is when you see the banks getting serious about putting this whole mess firmly behind them in their rear-view mirrors, the serious money gets deadly serious and starts making deals and the policy makers get a little sense slapped into them and start getting serious about job creation (a second incarnation of the Works Progress Association, anyone?). In short, none of the heavy-hitters are serious yet, and in such situation, losses are virtually guaranteed; remember, the banks and the policy makers are scared- quaking in their boots, for a reason. Until the big players get serious, I would say sit on your hands, hurry up and wait.

In sum, Mr. Bergsman has definitely proven his worth with this fine book, as he has successfully demonstrated to my satisfaction that he is a trustworthy source of useful and timely information on commercial real estate. Future editions of this book would do well to highlight broad demographic and economic trends in an additional chapter (much like what he did with the chapter on insurance and property taxes) and flesh out certain property types a bit better, such as health care facilities- skilled nursing facilities and senior housing come to mind here. Beyond this, I believe the book to be both solid and sound. I will definitely put some of his other books on my `to read now' list, and be certain to keep tabs on him and his writings from now on.

After the Fall is overall a very well written book. I know from reading the description and other reviews that it would only be an overview but, I was still wishing for more in depth analysis in some sections. By in depth analysis I mean more specific investing opportunities (say regional or metro) and maybe some interviews with investors that are taking advantage of current market.

I like Steve's writing style and everything is easy to understand with plenty of data. The layout of the book is broken down by type of real estate as you would imagine. If you are a new investor or need a basic overview of different types of real estate and how it's doing currently then you should read this.
Otherwise, look elsewhere as most of the information could be found by reading several WSJ articles and a few industry blogs.

I haven't read his other books yet, but, I will as I think they will be much more in depth than this one.

well defined chapters, i mean each chapter has a "Where we ARE" section i.e. how the sector in the study looks as of today, "where we WERE" - how did the sector market in question get here, and "where are we headed" - what the future holds for the current topic i am on, and Last but not least, each chapter ends with Bonus Box where author shares his learnings and experiences during his research of the current topic.

The book is divided into -
Commercial Real Estate Market that includes a chapter for each sectors like Office, Industrial, Retail and Multifamily.
Residential Real Estate Market includes Single-family and condominium,
Leisure Real Estate - second homes, vacation properties
With additional chapters on Commercial and Residential Real Estate extending the study of these markets.

I don't think i have read any book that even showed me these sectors before i read this one.There was a chapter at the end with a title "The Market for second homes" that explained why baby boomers are financially better than their parents' generation. The explanation was the first of its kind again, that i enjoyed absorbing, that i hadn't found anywhere in other books.
... read the full review at : [...]

I've read a few of Steve Bergsman's books and they have all taught me a few things about the real estate business. However, After The Fall does something different. It explains how we got into this property market mess and when each sector of the real estate industry will finally escape. Maybe the folks bailing out the banks should read this book?

I would like to highly recommend all of Mr. Bergsman's books, including "After the Fall." I have read them all and have learned something valuable in each and every one of them. As someone who works in the commercial real estate business, I enjoy these books for their educational and entertainment value. The first-hand accounts really add to the credibility of the topics tackled. As real estate continues to evolve and grow into an asset class as ingrained as stocks and bonds, we need more authors like Mr. Bergsman to explain the intricacies of the business to both those inside and outside of it.

"After the Fall" is a great source for ideas about positioning yourself or your company to take advantage of the current environment in commercial and residential real estate. While headlines continue to account some of the pain that has occurred in real estate, it is always important to see the other side of that coin...and that is Mr. Bergsman's specialty...

Bergsman has an uncanny ability in analyzing the commercial real estate sectors that may rise from the ashes in his book, After The Fall. The book is timely, extremely well-researched and written, and aids readers in discerning what looks to be up vs. down amidst the market chaos. It's a great read and very insightful.

After the recent subprime mortgage debacle and present crisis in our economy, one certainly could question the wisdom of investing in real estate! Yet, Bergsman's analysis of the various RE sectors and the opportunities that exist for investment both now and in the future is both very informative and quite reassuring. Whether for commercial properties or residential, Bergsman explains clearly how they've been impacted by the crisis, what to look for, and how to invest both wisely and cautiously in these challenging times and in the years ahead. Great insights! A great read!

Steve does it again. Another fantastic book about the current and prospective future of the commercial real estate market. Steve is one of the best writers in the country on commercial real estate. His knowledge and connections in this industry are spectacular. This book and Steve's other books are all must reads. Being a real estate developer and owner of a commercial brokerage firm I make sure that all my employees read Steve's books.

Most of us have yet to figure out what happened to our investments over the last two years, so it's fascinating that Steve Bergsman attempts to explain how different real estate sectors should play out over the next decade. His contentions seem very plausible.