Customer Reviews

After Fidel, Updated Edition: Raul Castro and the Future of Cuba's Revolution

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1 star:		(3)

 

 

Before I write this review, I would like to state that I am a former student of Brian Latell. As an undergraduate at Georgetown University, I attended his class, "Cuba & The Great Powers", which was a once-a-week, three-hour long lecture. While I certainly open myself up to charges of bias by saying this, it was probably one of the best classes I have ever taken, and four years later, it has tremendously influenced my formation as an intellectual and historian of Latin America. While Professor Latell and I disagreed on a number of issues (I am very much a "liberal"), I found his lectures and expertise on Fidel's Cuba to be impressive and well-reasoned.

The aim of Latell's book, simply put, is to shed light upon the lesser known Castro--Raul--who, for the last forty six years, has lived in the dominating shadow of his older brother. To do this, he contrasts Raul's personality and abilities with that of Fidel, thus authoring a dual biography of sorts. "After Fidel" is a compelling title for this book because, rather than focus exclusively on questions of succession, he uses the history of the brothers' relationship and their policies to differentiate their styles of rule and to suggest that for many years, Raul has ensured the continuation of the Cuban Revolution and its most dramatic successes, such as the various internationalist projects. Without Raul, Latell asserts, Fidel Castro could not have achieved the dramatic military mission in Angola, when thousands of Cuban soldiers, projected Cuban power thousands of miles from their small Caribbean island. Raul is the manager, the adept organizer, "the Prussian", yet he lacks the charisma and connection with his people that Fidel clearly possesses. Thus, his abilities and faults raise interesting questions of how and where Cuba will go. Without this revision, these questions would not be anywhere near as salient.

I strongly recommend this book both for beginners and those deeply acquainted with the history of the Cuban Revolution and its jefe maximo. It is clear, concise, and written in a manner that is both engaging and accessible. It's a strong work of historical revision that challenges many preconceived notions, and while some may disagree with its premise or disdain the author's background, it should be given a chance.

Let me conclude this review by stating that I, myself, have travelled to Cuba, and legally as well. To understand the Cuban Revolution, one must thoroughly challenge all notions of it. It is probably one of the most dramatic, polarizing political events of the twentieth-century, and its truths have either been torn by competing ideologies, or obscured by the Cuban government's adept use of "smoke and mirrors". Cuba is a beautiful island, yet one that must struggle day to day under the most enormous pressures of the embargo and the dictatorship. I, for one, hope that many of the dreams of the Cuban Revolution--equality, education, and justice--can survive long after the uglier side of its repression and megalomania dies.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER FIDEL?
By Rafael Aguirre Sacasa

Few books are as timely as Brian Latell's "After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader." The book, which was recently released, but has been in the works for many years, is a masterful and insightful analysis into the personalities of and relationship between Fidel and his younger brother Raul, Fidel's designated successor.

Few people are as qualified to write on this subject as Brian Latell. A 35 + year CIA veteran, he spent much of his career studying Castro and his actions; he attempted to "get into his shoes" and, after many years, became the foremost expert on Fidel in the United States Government. He culminated his career by becoming the National Intelligence Officer for Latin America, the crown jewel for an intelligence analyst.

The book is engaging, well crafted and researched. From the outset, it draws the reader into the private life of the Castro Ruz family. It provides the reader with an intimate view into the lives of both Fidel and Raul. It's full of personal anecdotes, which provide a unique and unvarnished insight into their personalities, emotional underpinnings, motivations, and thought processes. This peek into their private lives weaves a rich tapestry that permits the reader to get a real feel for the Fidel behind his "public persona" and sheds light into the very secretive life of Raul. Whereas Fidel has always strived for attention and is jealous of anyone who tries to upstage him, Raul has shunned publicity, carefully working behind stage. Whereas Fidel has proven to be an unparallel political strategist and propagandist, Raul's strengths lie in his organizational and managerial abilities. Latell has come to the conclusion that in order to understand Fidel and his success in consolidating his position of power and the revolution you must understand the relationship between the two brothers. As he says early on in the book "the truth is that if the depths of the brothers relationship could ever be understood, the secrets-the innermost workings of the Cuban Revolution through its entire history- would become transparent. Each brother demonstrates unique leadership qualities, personalities and character traits that seamlessly compliment the other's. They fit perfectly, like the stone walls built by the Inca civilization in Peru hundreds of years ago."

The book is timely because it deals with a topic that is getting more and more attention with every passing year....what happens in Cuba after Fidel. Watchers of Fidel have noticed that he is showing signs of accelerated physical deterioration. After more than 46 years in power it is becoming evident that his final curtain call is approaching. Since 1959 he has been a thorn in the side of 10 US Presidents, brought the world to near nuclear Armageddon, survived the collapse of the Cold War, seen the demise of the Soviet Union, his staunchest allie, and more recently been the guiding force behind Hugo Chavez. If his goal has been to defy the United States he has been successful. Fidel remains in power and is still viewed by many as the noble David who has stood up to the "Yankee Imperialist" Goliath. Despite his age this image is still strong. I have vivid memories of seeing Castro's triumphal entrance into a standing room only auditorium during the 2002 UN sponsored summit on Financing for Development held in Monterey Mexico, his speech being continuously interrupted by loud and sustained applause of many delegations.

The book should be read by not only from a historical perspective but more importantly by those who are interested in the future. Will his demise be followed by succession, transition or chaos? This question is more than just an intellectual exercise. With a population of more than 11,300,000, the majority who have known no Cuba other than the one ruled by Castro, less than 90 miles from the United States coastline, what happens in Cuba after Fidel will definitely impact both Cuba and the US as well as other countries in the Caribbean basin. Latell explores the most likely scenario, a succession by Raul, Minister of Defense and First Vice President of the Council of State, supported by the military, the institution, which he has led since the early days of the revolution, and the one institution that is the "nearest thing to a true meritocracy among Cuba's revolutionary institutions." However Latell cautions that "a praetorian regime dominated by Raul and the generals seems all but certain to succeed Fidel, though for how long is impossible to know." Cuba is a powder keg; it has undergone a revolution, it has been under despotic rule for over 46 years, there are few working institutions other than the military and security forces, and there is much popular discontent. It is being held together by a mixture of charisma, fear, repression and nationalism. The death of Fidel will be a traumatic event.

From a US government perspective Cuba has slowly evolved from being a foreign affairs issue to a domestic issue. The Cuban exile community has made Cuba policy a litmus test for their domestic political support and for obvious reasons, no administration is more beholden to it than the current Bush administration. The recent establishment of a Transition Coordinator within State Department "whose mandate it is to design and implement a comprehensive strategy for advancing freedom in Cuba" is a tall order, particularly in light of poor track record that the US government has had in trying to deal with Castro. I hope that US policy makers read Latell's book carefully so as to avoid repeating the mistakes that went into the planning for a post Saddam Iraq. Faulty assumptions about what would happen in an Iraq free from Saddam were based on faulty assumptions and unrealistic expectations. Rather than being showered by roses and received as liberators as was being touted by many Iraqi exiles, US forces are suffering casualties on a daily basis with no end in sight. Far from being the panacea the removal of Saddam did not lead to a democratic society, rather the latent tensions that existed have surfaced and have made governing tenuous at best and costly both in terms of blood and gold.

The challenge will be for the US to base its policy not on preconceived ideas of what the Cuban people want or what is in their best interest but rather to find a way to assist the Cuban people during this critical period. As Latell says "whether a raulista regime will survive for just a few months or for many years will likely depend on how skillfully he and his associates deal with this coalescing independent civil society." The main threat to stability in his opinion will be "that the country's new leaders will miscalculate as they deal with an increasingly restive population desiring change." Like it or not,US policy will play a major role in a post Fidel Cuba. The question is: will it play a stabilizing role or will it permit Fidel to continue to plague the US beyond the grave?

With the advent of neo-leftist movements all over Latin America, Brian Latell's "After Fidel" is certainly essential reading for any businessman, observer or diplomat involved in Latin America.

Latell provides insightful analysis into the governing of Cuba by Fidel Castro and his brother Raul who Latell projects will take over the island nation after Fidel.

The sucession is important as Latin American enters a period of neo-leftism lead by Venezuela's Chavez and marked by movements in Bolivia and Mexico. Cuba's potential support and possible involvement in these movements is at the top of the agenda for any analysis of the Latin America's political economy today.

Raul is a compelling character - living for the most part away from the public eye - yet obviously holding critical influence and sway over government deliberations in every area of Cuba's domestic and foreign policy.

Contrasting the two brothers is psychological as well as political theater - it is clear that some day Raul will certainly be able to direct policies his way independently of his brother and free of any rivalry which exists in any close relationship between brothers. Latell's key contribution is to project Cuba's future policies based upon his insights into the interactions between the two in the past. Latell leaves us hungry for the sequel which will certainly come soon: Cuba After Raul.

With Fidel Castro, nearing eighty and in a precarious medical condition, the mind reels as to what will become of Cuba the day after his death. Former CIA analyst Brian Latell has done a fairly thorough job in his book of painting the possible scenarios. Giving an easily understandable perspective to the magnitude of the regime change is much needed at this juncture since Castro has been in power for nearly half a century. That's an astounding four times longer than FDR's presidency to provide a comparison. Latell examines the profundity of Castro's sociopolitical influence in great detail and how significant events in his life built the fortitude of his leadership and contributed to its longevity.

The author is particularly enlightening when it comes to the heretofore enigmatic figure of Raul, Fidel's brother and next in line to succeed. It is only recently that the international media has paid that much attention to him. Unlike Fidel, Raul Castro does not have an intractable relationship with the ideologies that initiated the revolution so many years ago and consequently, we are unlikely to hear him as a mouthpiece for Fidel's dogmatic, long-winded speeches. Latell paints a portrait of a pragmatist who will put greater focus on the widespread socio-economic hardships that could cause another revolution. So preoccupied with popular support is Raul that he apparently advocates strongly for economic reforms despite past indiscretions. But this does not mean there is a new utopia in a nascent stage. Latell describes a Raul Castro regime as one that continues to restrict political freedoms for ordinary Cubans with relentless control over the society and only as-needed concessions.

The author offers an intriguing variation on the Raul scenario given the reality that Raul is only five years younger than Fidel. If Raul were to die before Fidel, the leadership vacuum would lead to even greater political instability since there appears to be no consensus among the central government, the Communist Party and the defense ministry as to what the succession plan should be. Latell forecasts the resulting chaos to lead inevitably to a greater flux of illegal immigrants into Florida and American military intervention to halt the inflow. His most penetrating insights show a post-Fidel Cuba most different in the way existing legacies would subside in favor of the harsh current realities of the government's human rights violations and the pervasive military dominance. He makes a strong case in showing how the Cuban military, the country's most powerful institution, will be the most instrumental factor in forging whatever identity Cuba will have long after either Castro brother passes. This is highly recommended reading and most timely.

Latell's book is a vital reference for anyone interested in how Cuba is led and how the succession to Fidel Castro is likely to play out. It provides a compelling political portrait of the Castro brothers: their formative experiences, ideological convictions, leadership styles and evolving views of the outside world. Remote leadership analysis, though, is an imperfect explanatory and predictive tool, and we must keep in mind the wider context. The United States did not create the Castro phenomenon, but U.S. policy has had much to do with legitimizing and perpetuating the Cuban regime. How Cuba evolves post-Fidel will depend less on permutations of personality (whether the "compassionate Raul" or "Raul the Terrible" is in charge) than on policies made in Washington..Dropping the economic embargo and flooding Cuba with U.S. money, capital investment, entrepreneurship, technioal experts, culture ambassadors and other agents of change is certain to hasten the demise of the Communist regime or transform it beyond recognition.

The book disappointingly glosses over Cuba's drug connections, important to an understanding of the Ochoa-de la Guardia trials (see chapter 11) and their aftermath. Drugs have been a focal point of both conflict and cooperation with the United States since the Carter administration as well as a source of painful divisions within the Cuban hierarchy.. Also. one wishes that Latell had included a more extended and nuanced discussion of modern-day Cuba, especially of the faultlines within the major power institutions and within Cuban society at large. Still, the book is timely, an excellent read and eminently worth the 5- star rating conferred by this reviewer.

In this book Brian Latell records his views of Fidel Castro and his brother Raúl, as well as the relationship between the two. It is the first such record available. It provides a unique perspective of the early roots of Fidel's ideological formation and the impact his own social situation as the illegitimate son of the household maid had during his attendance both to grammar school and to the Belén Jesuit High School in Havana. As to Raúl, it points to the fact that he was doomed to be a second fiddle, not only by his own personality but by the possibility that he was the son of Raúl Mirabal, a Batista army officer stationed in the area of the Biran household, who later became a notorious repressor. Their father never gave Raúl the financial support, education and attention that he provided Fidel.
It is not surprising, therefore, that, as Latell points out, all his life Raúl felt subordinate and deferential to his taller, stronger and much more charismatic brother, complementing his anarchic ways with a systematic approach to managing the Cuban military that has no equal in any other country. The question is, will such a lifelong subordination prepare Raúl to be his own man? Latell raises the question for those exploring what may happen after Fidel Castro is no longer in charge.
Latell draws on his broad familiarity with the history of the Cuban revolution, both as a CIA analyst and as a Georgetown University professor for 25 years on the subject of Cuban history. He also provides the only revelations known so far on the actions of Castro's top DIA mole, arrested on September 21, 2001, Ana Belén Montes. She entered into a plea bargain and is at present serving a 25 year sentence, without parole, given by a Federal judge on October, 2002. That is a bonus that, combined with his insightful analysis of the behavior of both brothers and their interactions, makes this a must read book for anybody interested in getting an understanding of events in Cuba.

AFTER FIDEL: THE INSIDE STORY OF CASTRO'S REGIME AND CUBA'S NEXT LEADER is an important assessment given Fidel's recent health issues: it provides both a political history of Fidel's regime, an analysis of his approach and impact, and new information on his brother, their family life, and how Raul is growing more powerful. In analyzing Fidel and Raul Castro's relationship and evolving influence on Cuban history and culture, AFTER FIDEL provides all the historical and psychological analysis needed for an informed consideration of modern Cuba's future.

Diane C. Donovan
California Bookwatch

For many years Cuba has been an arid subject, of interest to scholars, various intelligence agencies, and, of course, and rightly so, to Cubans living on the island and in the diaspora. Fidel's long hold on power has rendered Cuba immutable: everything happens, but nothing happens. There have been invasions, betrayals by former Soviet commissars, assasination attempts, massive emigrations, disenchantments, old allies lost, new allies won: all to naught, as Cuba remains Cuba, firmly under the wiles and charms of a brilliantly charismatic leader. Fidel's endlessly resourceful commedia dell'arte gives the illusion that Cuba has reached the end of history.

Brian Latell reminds us that Fidel's tropical Hermit Kingdom is soon coming to an end, though the transition to a non-Stalinist state may be more complex than conventional wisdom would have us believe. He musters impeccable research on Fidel the man (as oposed to the icon), and allows us to better understand the longest-running play in the history of modern political theater. But he also sheds light on the more obscure second fiddle of the Revolution, Raul, and suggests that, with Fidel gone, Raul may discard his opaqueness and long subservience to his living elder brother and lead Cuba in new directions.

The experience of the former Eastern Europe Soviet satellites, as well as the extraordinary transition to democracy taking place in post-Sandinista Nicaragua, seem to suggest a similar fate for post-Fidel Cuba. Lattel, however, sees Raul as a leader in his own right, capable of steering Cuba into waters that will not be revealed until power has devolved into his hands.

Lattel's book is a must for anyone with an interst in Cuba: he has brought fresh insights into a debate that had become somewhat stale. His crisp, elegant language make it a delightful read.

I must say that I am not a admirer of Fidel or the revolution in Cuba, but despite that, Fidel has his name printed in History, whether for good or bad -- you decide that. In any case, I found this book totally readable and, in my opinion, you can make an idea of Raul's character and the future of Cuba. Cuba's Revolution is Fidel's revolution, he invented it and he is the driving force of it, so to replace him is quite difficult task, even impossible. The fact is that there is no reason to continue with Fidel's stubbornness, Cuba is a beautiful country, full of history, and deserve better, deserve freedom for its people, prosperity and with real social justice. Let's see what the future holds ...

This is a well written bio. No histronics, no preaching, no selling of a viewpoint. The author is a former CIA officer and current teacher of the Cuban Revolution at Columbia U. He credits his sources by name, noting each person's relation to the events, which is welcome for the layman. While the title implies that the book is about "After Fidel", this topic comprises less than 1/4 of the text. While to predict the future, you need to know the past, the subtitle works better.

Latell defines how Castro, through extraordinary intellect, a sensitivity to competition and a lack of moral restraint was able to take over a small island country and make it his fiefdom. He was a svengali to his brother, Raul, who's unacknowledged skills were necessary to Fidel's rise and continued dominance. Raul, like the rest of Cuba, is compelled for pyschological and practical reasons to cater to Fidel's paranoia.

Raul ascends to head the military by demonstrating his loyalty through leading ruthless prosecutions including that of a good friend and confidant... a popular and successful general... who's crime was to "dis" Fidel in a private conversation. Unlike Fidel, Raul has a modicum of conscience regarding this particular execution. Raul had been known to have shown some humanity at least once before, in visiting his father while the revolution expropriated the family homestead. Raul is not seen in public and the author says he's an alcoholic. If Fidel were to die today, w/could the 75 year old Raul be the Deng Xiaoping of Cuba?

The situation of Lina (Castro's mother) and her children (Fidel, Raul + 5 others) living in a shack while Angel (father) and his legal wife live in the comfortable "big house" is reminiscent of a pre-Civil War US plantation. Eventually the children are recognized by their father but, I presume, the psychological damage had been done.

Latell gives details of some things of which I was only vaguely aware. One was Casto's early obsession with "liberating" Puerto Rico. Another was the group of "non-aligned" nations, which through design Castro leads. Fidel and the entire organization are later sidelined by his necessary statement of alignment with the Soviet Union when it invaded Afganistan.

There are insights on the workings of international information systems. I didn't know that the lack of coordintion of the FBI and CIA was that FBI cases lead to criminal trials and CIA material, witnesses, etc. must be confidential. A Cuban mole, now in prison, provides information to Fidel, and disinformation to us, for 8 years. An anecdote about a mango tree illustrates, not only Fidel's inability to deal with criticism, but also how international information systems keep tabs on each other.

While there is little text on the eventual succession, I recommend this highly readable bio. I don't know how it measures up to the many other Fidel bios, but the author has an interesting and clear style. He is precise in his language and labels what is known and what is speculative.