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The Age of Aging: How Demographics are Changing the Global Economy and Our World

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Demographics is Destiny

Despite the "aging" in the title, this 313 page text is more of a practical tour d'horizon of global demographics. Greater longevity or aging of mankind turns out to be only half of a huge future problem. The other half of the problem is that women around the globe are not making enough babies. The fertility rate is so low in most countries that humans are not replacing themselves. The problem is acute where the work force is actually shrinking. Fewer workers generate less global economic growth and wealth creation. Not good.

In my research, I contend these two demographic markers (more longevity, less fertility) are foretelling the disastrous equivalent of an asteroid hit on earth. Magnus skillfully presents lots of data and concepts to help you understand this crisis. Bravo!

Unfortunately, the public does not seem to care. Witness the fact that even though his book has been listed in Amazon.com for over six months, I am the first to review it.

You should care. Check out his first three chapters where he foretells the breadth and depth of the problem. I guarantee you will be mumbling over and over: "I didn't know that!" Chapter 4 cuts to the chase and briefly describes how these trends will impact the

economics of your life. Chapters 5,7 and 8 analyze the impact on different blocks of countries. Industrialized areas such as Europe and Japan will be crippled by this double whammy of fewer workers to support more elderly. The United States, except for the help of immigration, limps closely behind. Remember China's "one child policy"? Guess how well they fare. Only a few emerging and developing areas may survive unscathed.

Magnus also drives down three fascinating side roads with comments and data on the impact on religion, the military, and your personal wallet(note his association with UBS and its money management arm). A tip from George to us in the U.S.: don't look for housing prices to get back to previous heights if prime-age buyers decline in numbers. He suggests that if U.S. boomers want to protect their wallets, they may want to be more open to immigrants. I need to put George in touch with Dowell Myers. I recently talked with Dowell about this very issue of the economic impact of immigration. You may also want to check out Dowell's 2007 book, "Immigrants and Boomers".

I have one small gripe about the book. Early on, we are assured by the author that he will not spend time laying out "...a blueprint for policymakers" or offering "...any particular legislative agenda". But he fails the reader. He succumbs to the controversies of global warming and the need for more governmental intervention. Aside from this minor shortcoming, this text should be required reading for any private or public planner. In an ideal world, it ought to also be required reading for college graduation. mysite.verizon.net/SidhuGroup

George Magnus' "The Age of Aging" is more than just about demographics in book form, but a truly global account of the upcoming population transitions that are slowly taking place around our fine planet. While strictly demographics in book form can be a very dry subject, Mr. Magnus writes an exceptional review in a thought provoking form which is not dry at all. So why should one care about the world of demographics anyway? One very good reason is that we have no precedents to guide us for our current situation of a rapidly aging population because the world's population has always statistically been young and growing in the past. Yes, the world's population will continue to grow on the whole for a number of years, but many industrialized countries actually will soon start to have population decreases and some are already in decline.

This book is not an alarmist treatise, but the worry and concern is that many institutions are just not prepared for the aging population which might bring with it strong political currents when seniors do not get what they were promised. In addition, when you want to regain your Super Power status but your population is shrinking, this also has potential geopolitical repercussions (i.e. Russia). How these themes, and others, play out is anyone's guess, but one should at least be aware of the potentialities.

On the whole, a thorough look thru the global prism of the forthcoming demographic shifts and their probable pocket book economic repercussions.

For reference and for those that may want to research more from an economic perspective, I would also recommend

Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future by Ben J. Wattenberg

Boom, Bust & Echo: How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Shift by David K. Foot and Daniel Stoffman.

I love this quote from one population researcher :

""Maybe tinkering with the retirement age and making other economic adjustments is good," he said. "But you can't go on forever with a total fertility rate of 1.2. If you compare the size of the 0-to-4 and 29-to-34 age groups in Spain and Italy right now, you see the younger is almost half the size of the older. You can't keep going with a completely upside-down age distribution, with the pyramid standing on its point. You can't have a country where everybody lives in a nursing home.""

Yes, but they won't let you live in a nursing home, they will kill you and say 'better you should go'.

In 2009 the governor who said in the 80's of the elderly that ""Old People Have a Duty to Die and Get Out of the Way" was still at it in 2009. See his rationing and ObamaCare speech. Should make your heart stop.