Customer Reviews

The Age Curve: How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm

5 star:		(37)
4 star:		(5)
3 star:		(3)
2 star:		(3)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

No, really, it is.

When I come across a book, speaker, slideshow or tv show that takes a complicated or mundane topic and explains it as clearly as Ken Gronbach has explained the essence of demographic transitions in "The Age Curve," I applaud the author. When the writing is not only clear and concise but also entertaining, I stand up and cheer.

Gronbach uses stories from his years of experience in the advertising and marketing business to explain what is important about basic data like how many babies were born in which years during the last century or so in the USA. Instead of being an actuary's idea of a boring meeting (no offense to actuaries!) it is a lively and humorous read, with lots of slap-your-forhead, "well, DUH!" moments. With real-life applications like blue-jean and motorcycle sales, stories about leftovers at the dinner table, and discussion of current events like immigration and China, Gronbach makes what some consider a dry topic into something you'll talk about at cocktail parties, with your spouse as you plan your future together, and, perhaps most importantly, at the conference table with your business associates.

After reading this book, you will start to see every issue that attracts or confounds you differently. You will analyze every business challenge, measure every political argument, and make every investment decision from a new perspective. And whenever you run into some executive making a lame excuse about not being able to predict the future and how it might affect stockholders, you will want to slap them with a copy of this book.

This book is a 250-page "a-ha moment." I recommend it to everyone who thinks or cares about the future of our culture, and who wonders why big businesses sometime run aground on issues that seem later to have been completely predictable.

Want bonus points? Hire Gronbach to speak to your business or trade group -- he's a great presenter with a show that will keep you awake -- even after a big lunch!

Have you ever gone to a movie because it had a really funny trailer - but been disappointed after viewing the entire film? You feel ripped off because all the good parts were shown in that three minute preview and now you'll never get that two hours of your life back. That's how I felt after reading The Age Curve.

I visited Kenneth Gronbach's website before purchasing his book. He had some interesting things to say so I bought the book. Don't make the same mistake I did: all the worthwhile info is on his website / blog.

Out of 241 pages he has only a few dozen pages worth of good material (evidenced by the larger-than-average font size IMHO). The book is also very repetitive - something I could forgive if it weren't for other glaring problems.

Okay, here is his thesis in a nutshell: the US population we call Gen X doesn't consume as much because there are fewer of them (roughly 9 Xers for every 10 Boomers). This causes beer sales, motorcycle sales, home sales, etc to decline. Things will stay in decline until Gen Y is old enough to start buying homes, cars, etc.

So what does Gronbach suggest? Retailers should write off the Gen Xers entirely. Ignore 69 million people approaching their prime spending years and prepare for the Gen Y gravy train. What idiocy. Besides, what's a struggling retailer to do for the next five to ten years while Gen Y slugs through college and their 20-something poverty years? Gronbach has been consulting with big corporations for too long.

To make matters worse: Gronbach doesn't give any worthwhile suggestions for how to market to Gen Y. He spends page after page hammering into the readers head that we must market to Gen Y and then has little "how to" advice.

I DID read the whole book; however, I almost had to put it down after reading Gronbach's description of how (due to high unemployment) Gen Y will take jobs now held by immigrant labor. He says, "once again a blonde-haired blue-eyed girl will take your order at a fast-food restaurant." Ha! This guy needs to visit Southern California. I've met those blonde teenagers and I've gone to those fast food joints. This guy is a few tacos short of a value meal.

While Gronbach's basic premise is sound:

#1 If your primary customer is between the ages of 30-45 (a Gen-Xer) reduce your short-term sales goals. Gen X will never consume at the rate the boomers did. There aren't enough of them.

#2 Make plans for how and when you'll target Gen Y.

... and you can get this info from his blog. Save yourself three hours of reading.

Full disclosure: I'm 29 years old. Depending on how you slice it, I'm either the first part of Gen Y or I'm the tail end of Gen X. My degree is in marketing and my job is small-business consulting with a focus on online marketing.

This book is an easy-to-understand guide to population trends that will affect every organization. I work with faith-based nonprofits and I have seen them so focused on reaching the 24-40 Gen-X segment, they miss the basic fact that that generational cohort is much smaller than people think.

The infrastructure (and mind-set) of the nation's largest faith groups and faith-based nonprofits are fit to the size of the Baby Boomers and I fear leaders in these institutions and organizations are setting themselves up for disappointment when population realities are realized in the very near future.

All these ministries and organizations need to respond to a realistic understanding of population trends and become more aware so they can get ahead of the population "parade." I will recommend my clients read this book as a resource to hep them open their eyes!

Very disappointing book. Although I did not disagree with some of the authors conclusions, they were presented mostly as opinion, without data to support his points. The book was self serving, highlighting many great insights and decisions the author made in his personal business. If you are looking for substance (UN Data, Census Data, Historical Context and refernces), look elsewere. I would recommend Peter Petersons "Running on Empty", Ben Wattenberg's "Fewer" or Kotlikoff/Burn's "The Coming Generational Storm" if you are interested in understanding the underlying issues of how demographics are changing our world and what we might do to meet the challange.

Most run so fast the daisies go by unnoticed. Why does the noise coming from the restaurant's ceiling sound like Chinese water torture..... no melody, no harmony, unintelligible lyrics?

The Deli is located on South College Street, that's why. I'm 72, that's why. The manager isn't willing to change stations. I ask for the Kingston Trio or the Limelighters. Who? She asks. I don't go there now for lunch. She doesn't miss me. I found a cafe associated with a book store. Nice. Soft background music playing.

Gronbach's "The Age Curve" showed me there was a rational reason for my satisfaction with the move and using his method of applying that data makes clear the significance of age group preferences and why demand shifts with time. Why wouldn't everyone prefer Pavarotti against the repetitive strumming of 3 guitar chords over and over accompanied by indistinguishable screaming, without melody or harmony for 3 whole minutes?

Enter "The Age Curve". Adding the principal of Ken's research into things like "what age group buys motorcycles" provides the answer to the mystery as to why growing motorcycle sales fell suddenly off the cliff. His method of applying these factors makes clear reasons for behavioral, buying and/or taste changes that can greatly affect your business success and where you go to lunch.

This text book reads like a hard-to-put-down novel, as the author recounts many fascinating product marketing cause and result, success and failure case studies from his own extensive international marketing experiences.

The Age Curve is an interesting and surprisingly easy-to-understand demographic study. Although written with a view towards sales and marketing, my wife and I found the book to be a useful tool in understanding how the changing population impacts our daily living, (insurance, manufacturing, food industry, local government, education, etc.).

First, the author identifies the generations (GI, Silent, Boomer, Gen X & Y). Then, compares and contrasts them - not strictly by numbers and percentages but more importantly, by attitudes and behaviors. His personal, often humorous examples make the facts, figures and preferences of each market group easy to remember.

The Age Curve is fun reading and has something to offer everyone. We've purchased several copies for family and friends - a great gift for thinking people!

I'm not sure if there is a higher superlative that I can give a written work than to say it is the most resistant to being put down of anything I've read in a decade. I was entertained and completely engrossed within seconds.

The most important business book I've encountered in at least the past five years, The Age Curve's every page contains useful information about the who, what, when, where, why and HOW of our current marketplace and provides an eye-opening vision of the near and not so near future of our fragile global economy.

Generational shifts are about to change business... all business... and those who are most familiar with Kenneth Gronbach's work are going to be the ones best prepared to handle the struggles and profit from the opportunities of those shifts. If you enjoyed Blink or Freakonomics here is your chance to read a book that shares a similarly interesting style and tone, but with the invaluable bonus of having the information within be applicable to everyday business - which is something I found sorely lacking in the case of these other best sellers.

The bottom line? Get this book. Today. You'll be finished and better prepared for a profitable future tomorrow.

Reviewed By: Mark Snow, VP HRD Press

The Age Curve does a great job of explaining the cause and effects of demographics on economic fundamentals. If you are in the business of marketing to consumers, this is a must read. His case history on motorcycle sales really illustrates how and why it will affect your business.

As a B2B type business owner, it's important for me to learn shifting trends in the marketplace. This book opened my eyes to the demography in the US and encouraged me to look at trends in a different way. Sure, no one will agree with every point made in the book, but isn't that the beauty? The author gives his view on what business owners should consider when marketing to the different generations. I never got the impression he suggests that demography is the ONLY thing dictating the market, but it is a huge piece of the puzzle.
Only halfway through the book, I had a meeting with a key account for my business. I was able to discuss the shift in generations and explain why certain marketing methods would be of great help to their business. (Yes, I'm a marketer - social media and internet.) I was hired on the spot! Thanks Ken, for making me look good!
This book is full of interesting and unique ideas on how businesses can change their thinking to succeed in the marketplace. It is eye-opening and quite funny, which was a pleasant surprise. I definitely recommend that every business owner, marketer, consumer, heck, everyone, read it!

Kenneth Gronbach's book contains demographic information that can be applied to any business. I concur with another reviewer who said that some of the author's insights are not to be found elsewhere. Every chapter is filled with "common sense" observations that will ring true with the intelligent reader. The author presents the "big picture" in easy to understand language. The book provides the tools to look ahead and see what is coming for your business. this allows any business who knows the demographics of its customer base to plan for the future, instead of simply reacting to past events.