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The Age of Transition: Trajectory of the World System, 1945-2025

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This is an important albeit not uncontroversial contribution to the field of international political economy. The book tries to answer the question whether the world capitalist system is in crisis and the paths available for future world development. The works are firmly located within the world system thesis expounded by Wallerstein in many of his previous works.

The book intoruduces the concept of 6 vectors within which future paths can be examined. These are the inter-state system; world production; world labour force; human welfare; cohesion of states; and the structures of knowledge.

The book displays the weaknesses inherent in the world system thesis. These include overstating the degree of integration of the economies of the world and thus not taking into account the emergence of "non-states" run either by armed bandits or by organised crime.

The book does not deal adequately with the current state of the state. Given the debate around MNCs and their increasing expansion into areas which were the domain of the state this is an issue needing serious appraisal.

The depiction of this era as being a post US hegemonic era is also an area which will be contested by many writers, not least of all the Fukuyama's of the world.

Wallerstein concludes that the future depends onm how the following factors develop: * the extent to which there is loyalty to citizenship;

* the level of security through police order; the extent to which military orders are maintained; * level of welfare especially in relation to health and food distribution; * stability of religious institutions.

The period 1945-1990 was marked by a formidable expansion of the world economy and a massive decolonization of non-white populations. The period can be split into two phases: a surge from 1945 to 1967/73 and a stagnation/recession from 1967/73 to 1990.
These trends are explained by analyzing six complexes of processes (vectors).
Interestingly, this book makes also a prognosis for the years 1990-2025.

The Interstate System
The total disintegration of the USSR, bankrupted by Cold War military spending, economic mismanagement and unrest at its borders, made an end to the bipolar world order of the Cold War. The only hegemon left, the US, continued its leadership based on its military force. But, its high military spending made its economy less competitive.

Structure of world production
World production expanded enormously and became more integrated. US corporations dominated world commerce via liberalization (opening of national markets) and State intervention (agricultural subsidies).
In order to counter falling profit levels, production was delocalized in order to reduce the labor cost. From the 1970s on, there was also a shift from productive activities to financial operations (mergers and acquisitions) and a huge increase in military spending.

Structure of the labor force
Worldwide, wage employment expanded mightily, with a concomitant surge in female labor. Other important characteristics were the creation of `social wages' (e.g., redistributive allocations, health insurance), migration and urbanization.
From the 1970s on, the delocalization of production generated higher unemployment and falling real wages in the core industrial regions.

Patterns of human welfare
Welfare provisions are pre-eminently a State-level function. There was first a sharp acceleration of welfare programs (housing, education, public health). But, from the 1970s on, the welfare State came under attack for fiscal (taxation) reasons.

Social cohesion of the States
After 1945, the States monopolized violence. With the containment of internal violence, civilian life turned relatively peaceful. Nationalism became the primary mechanism of the uniformization of populations into modern States.
The collapse of the USSR and Yugoslavia created a sizeable number of new independent nations.

Structures of knowledge
Scientific knowledge was the driving force in the North. But, the old spiritual belief systems were replaced by the human and social sciences. Education was introduced nearly worldwide. Liberalism became the dominant world ideology.
From the 1970s on, fundamentalist religious movements assured a revival of religious beliefs.

Global prospect (1990-2025)
For I. Wallerstein, one possibility is a continuation of the capitalist business cycles of booms and busts. The other possibility is a systemic crisis.
Concerning the second possibility, there were until now no general price crashes, no major social unrests, no major inter-ethnic struggles and no creation of the dyad Japan/USA/China v. Europe/Russia.
Other prognoses were more accurate: continued migration, sharper ecological problems and an economic shift to East-Asia. Another dyad was created: Europe/USA/Japan v. BRICS.
There were no wars of the South against the North, but wars of conquest by the North.
Also, there was, in fact, a systemic crisis (the implosion of the Western banking system), but governments in the North stepped in with massive capital injections.

Although sometimes confusing, this book is still a very interesting and worthwhile read.