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It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book [Kindle Edition]

Baseball Prospectus , Steven Goldman
3.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)

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Book Description

Pennant races are arguably the most important aspect of baseball. Players, teams, and franchises are all after one goal: to win the pennant and get into the post-season. But what really determines who wins? Statistical analyses of baseball abound: different ways of breaking down everyone’s individual performance, from hitters and pitchers to managers and even owners. But surprisingly, team success-what makes some teams winners over an entire season-has never been looked at with the same statistical rigor. In It Ain’t Over ’Til It’s Over, The Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts introduce the Davenport Method of deciding which races were the most dramatic-the closest, the most volatile-and determine the ten greatest races of modern baseball history. They use these key races (and a few others) to answer the main question: What determines who wins? How important are such things as mid-season trades, how much a manager overworks his pitchers, and why teams have winning and losing streaks? Can one player carry a team? Can one bad player ruin a team? Can one bad play ruin a team’s chances? This fascinating and illuminating book will change your perception of the game.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

From the authors of the popular statistical analysis site comes a rare bird, a sports book that's both thoughtfully written and brimming with drama. Dissecting 13 of the most compelling, down-to-the-wire pennant races in baseball history, from the 1908 National League to the 2003 National League Central, the authors first use flowing, novelistic prose to detail what happened, and then their own statistical formulae to illuminate why the race ended as it did. Regular readers of Baseball Prospectus will find some of this book repetitive, such as lengthy comparisons between teams from different eras, but there is much here for fans of all interest levels. One chapter examines the development of the modern farm system, while another illustrates how failure to integrate crippled some franchises for decades. Along the way, myths are debunked (infamous goat Fred Merkle gets acquitted, having been victimized by the inconsistent umpiring common in the early 1900s) and legends are re-examined (would Bobby Thompson have hit his "Shot Heard Round the World" if Dodger manager Charlie Dressen hadn't been in "a kind of fugue state throughout that ninth inning"?). With clear prose and surprising wit, this book is a perfect end-of-summer read for fans.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Booklist

If you are a baseball fan, there's a high probability you are a nerd for statistics. You may even know about, a stats site in which irreverent humor exists in perfect harmony with sometimes impossibly complex mathematical formulas. For those who don't know the site, here's the perfect introduction: a statistical analysis of the 10 greatest pennant races in baseball history, as determined by the Davenport method. Along with the statistics behind the selections, the contributors identify the key players on each team, set the context (on the way up or down), and describe the key moments in each pennant race. More importantly, they provide reasons for the surges and/or the collapses. Included are the Philadelphia Phillies collapse in 1964, the Boston Red Sox miracle in 1967, and the Detroit Tigers half-game victory over the Red Sox in 1972. Baseball Prospectus is a popular brand name, and this may be its most easily accessible book for the casual fan. And since it's examining the past rather than predicting the future, it has a long, long shelf life. Don't miss it. Lukowsky, Wes

Product Details

  • File Size: 4028 KB
  • Print Length: 480 pages
  • Publisher: Basic Books (August 1, 2007)
  • Sold by: Amazon Digital Services, Inc.
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B009W743DW
  • Text-to-Speech: Enabled
  • X-Ray:
  • Lending: Not Enabled
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,361,813 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
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Customer Reviews

3.1 out of 5 stars
3.1 out of 5 stars
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
20 of 21 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars entertaining August 17, 2007
This is a good book for those who enjoy baseball stats--the WARPs, VORPs, pythagorean expectations and the like. It looks at a number of pennant races and has analyses of those races. It also has some very interesting analyses of related and unrelated topics as well. One of the more enjoyable sections involves an "antipennant" to see who would "win" the rating of the worst baseball team (not surprisingly the 1899 Cleveland Spiders). Unlike many (much) older books, It Ain't Over often features computer replays--millions of replays to get a better statistical view. Hence when they say that Team X should have won the pennant, or that the 1899 Spiders were musch worse than the other worst teams, it carries more weight. (If you want to read more extensively about the worst teams, try the wonderful "On a Clear Day They Could See Seventh Place"--used, through Amazon).

I did have a couple of problems with the book. First, it's edited, not written by one person, and so the writing is not always uniform--a bit like an anthology of short stories by different authors. Second, I would myself probably have picked some different races here and there. I found myself asking "What makes a pennant race exciting?" Suppose you have three very mediocre teams in a weak division--and all three finish closely
with a record of, say, about 78 wins and 84 losses. It may be close, but is it exciting? It reminds me of some Monday Night Football games between
two teams that are 4 and 10 in which there are 8 fumbles and 10 interceptions. The game may be close, but I probably wouldn't call it exciting, except in a kind of morbid way.

The 1908 National League race which featured the "Merkle boner" is of course included in the book.
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13 of 13 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars Great content, lousy editing November 2, 2007
This latest book from the baseball statistical wizards at continues what has become a pattern with Baseball Prospectus printed matter: absolutely first-rate analysis of baseball's most interesting subjects, compromised by an editing job that would make a high-school English class retch.

The good part first. Steve Goldman and his Baseball Prospectus colleagues examine the tightest pennant races in (US) major-league baseball history and try to help us understand why those races worked out as they did. Their studies are not only statistical, as usual for BP products, but also historical and personal, and the whole package "works" -- the reader can see not only how so many races were swung by human error (for example, inability to build a roster soundly, a persistent BP theme), but also *why* the errors came about, one of those things that a purely statistical analysis can't accomplish, and an example of how the self-styled chewing-gum-and-tobacco "analysts" underestimate the BP crowd. Some standard BP prejudices are evident, for example tendency to dismiss the running game as inconsequential (fair enough in the era of power baseball, but not so obvious in the pitcher-friendly 60s and 80s) and belief that Dick Allen belongs in the Hall of Fame (this reviewer, who's old enough to remember what a mess he made of his teams, disagrees strenuously). On the whole, however, the analysis is excellent, well-integrated, thought-provoking, and well worth a read, at least if you don't mind long tables of statistics.

Unfortunately, the editing job is so poor that there are places where reading the analysis is frustrating. Somebody really needs to teach these people to spell, or at least to hire editor/proofreaders who can.
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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars A Second-Place Finish January 2, 2008
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
As the other reviewers have indicated, this book is full of choice details and interesting analysis about some of baseball's great pennant races and memorable teams, players, coaches, and managers. However, the book is badly edited and poorly written at times -- the price paid for trying to quickly slap together contributions from numerous contributors.

I think the book also suffers from confusion about whether it is aimed at the serious baseball fan or the casual fan. There's a lot of advanced baseball analysis terminology and numerology in the book that is familiar to the perhaps 200,000 people who are fascinated by sabermetrics. But the authors want to cast a wider net, so they spend a fair amount of time explaining these concepts to the newcomers in the audience. Trying to serve two audiences weakens the flow for those of us who already are on the bandwagon.

Yet, the book has significant strengths. The stories of how certain teams were built and reached their pinnacle during a particular pennant race (or staved off collapse for one more year) are frequently compelling. In fact, they're stronger than the data and statistics, which is usually BP's strength. I'm not a softie for the stories about a particular player's "manhood" or "ability to play in pain" or whatever, but this book highlights those achievements without being hyperbolic about it.

In conclusion, it's a decent addition to my baseball library, but far from a grand slam.
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7 of 10 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars a disappointment September 17, 2007
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
This book contains several factual errors, most notably in the chapters on the 1967 AL race and the 1972 AL East race (including a continual misspelling of Denny McLain's name). Given the number of easily-found mistakes in this book, one starts wondering if there are other errors embedded in the statistical analyses that aren't readily apparent. Many of the chapters also skim the surface and don't delve into issues surrounding teams that didn't win; for example, the chapter on the 1964 NL race just about ignores the Reds, arguably the best team in the league that year (and the team with the highest Pythagorean won-lost mark, presuming they did the math right), led by a manager dying of cancer. In short, this book was a bit of disappointment, and certainly not Baseball Prospectus' best work; there are still some neat things in here, but this book is not worth paying full price for.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
3.0 out of 5 stars Not for everyone
It starts with an interesting idea. Take the boys and girls (those words are used fondly) who put together the annual Baseball Prospectus book, and sick them on pennant races of... Read more
Published 19 months ago by WDX2BB
2.0 out of 5 stars It might have been
If you're really into baseball stats & second-guessing history, then this book is for you. Most of the pennant races have been talked about before in better books.
Published on January 10, 2012 by Arthur H. Hahn
2.0 out of 5 stars Too many errors to enjoy this book
As other reviewers noted, they definitely needed a good editor for this book. I lost interest after coming across several errors on the 1964 pennant race. Read more
Published on May 4, 2011 by S. M. Stenby
4.0 out of 5 stars Plenty Of Data
As would be expected coming from the statistical Baseball Prospectus group this entry is chock full of data and analysis concerning a number of past close pennant races. Read more
Published on October 27, 2008 by Michael L. Slavin
5.0 out of 5 stars another Baseball Prospectus homerun
Baseball Prospectus is a premium web-site that engages in both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Read more
Published on September 16, 2008 by Frank L. Greenagel Jr.
3.0 out of 5 stars errors
Terrence is correct-a lot of errors.A few examples--Steve Goldman has Bob Lemon as a left handed picther.He also said Lemon came up as a third baseman.Didn't it occur to Mr. Read more
Published on September 21, 2007 by beach
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