Customer Reviews

Americans at Risk: Why We Are Not Prepared for Megadisasters and What We Can Do

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Dr. Redlener talks about the following five megadisasters and what can be done to improve our response to them: an outbreak of avian flu in New York City; and earthquake in Seattle and the Puget Sound; the detonation of a nuclear bomb in a major city; an accidental chlorine release in a tornado-risk zone; and, finally, the targeting of American children by terrorists. After the interesting discussion of each megadisaster, Dr. Redlener points out the many things we can do to improve our response to them.
He very thoughtfully discusses the four barriers that prevent Americans from being in a state of optimal readiness. The first barrier is the lack of goals and accountability assigned to the monies given by the Feds. The second barrier is the failure to imagine the consequences of situations before they happen. In one example of this barrier, he talks about the fact that all nursing homes in New Orleans were required to have an emergency evacuation plan, and they did. However, all the plans called for evacuating residents to other nursing homes. After Katrina 80% of the nursing homes were damaged and the flooding made them inaccessible. The third barrier is the lack of leadership as demonstrated by DHS Secretaries Brown and Chertoff. The fourth and final barrier is what he calls the strange psychology of preparedness. For example, one in three Americans believes a terrorist attack will happen within a year; however, fewer than half Americans have a family emergency preparedness plan. The thinking follows the line of there will be an attack, but it wont happen me.

We are introduced to Prochaska's "Stages of Change " model to help us better understand how people normally modify their behaviors. By understanding this model we will be better able to create a culture of readiness. We are also introduced to the efforts other countries have undertaken to better prepare and deal with megadisasters. I enjoyed reading about what other countries were and are doing to better prepare for handling megadisasters. I did particularly like the Chinese example that he used. A major earthquake happened in the Qinglong district of China in 1976. It was between a 7.8 and an 8.2 magnitude on the Richter scale. The disaster claimed 240,000 lives and injuring another 165,000 people. The city of Tangshan was virtually destroyed. Qinglong, a community close by, suffered from the same quake, however, the outcome was very different. Two years earlier, Qinglong was warned about the possibilities of an earthquake striking their city. They took the warning seriously and prepared for the day when it might happen. The death toll in Qinglong on July 28th, the day of the quake? ONE --- a man died of a heart attack!! As Dr. Redlener said, "the lesson is overwhelmingly important: mitigation, education, and planning work".

The only megadisaster that could happen now is not getting this book, and the answers it provides, into the hands of our politicians!!!

George Dumigan

Certainly the author is an expert in the field but I thought that the book had three shortcomings. The author, as he admits in the preface, rushed the book out the door, relying on others to do much of the work. Political diatribe displaced accurate facts and sound reasoning in several parts. Finally, the author stumbled at the end, which was perhaps the most important part. Despite these flaws it is an important book which should be read, but with some reservations.

It's a fast read for a variety of reasons. I purchased it just prior to a 2-hour flight and was finished before they collected the coffee cups.

What the author does contribute is a variety of scenarios and the consequences.

Redlener's political orientation is left of Hillary and friends and it shows. My guess is that some of his Columbia associates also sprinkled their venom into the text. Some of the many examples where his bias influences the analysis include flu vaccines and New Orleans.

The author concludes that some profit driven scheme is resulted in the flight of vaccine producers from the US to foreign shores and the concentration of the world's production of flu vaccines into two plants. If there is a scheme it is simply one of survival. Flu vaccine production is a low margin product, rushed to production each year just ahead of the flu season to serve an uncertain demand. If the demand is there (and the author is correct that the public does not take responsibility for basic stuff) they make a little money. However, if there is an allegation of a problem, years after the vaccine was produced, the maker is going to get sued. US courts are the preferred venue where the rules of evidence are lax, joint and several liability is common and the juries are generous. Therefore, only high margin drugs whose primary market is to Americans are manufactured in the US. Attempts at tort reform have of course been blocked by Redlener's friends in government, thanks to the abundant cash contributions of the trial attorneys.

Redlener concludes that New Orleans wrote a disaster plan and then forgot about it. He then goes on to place most of the blame at FEMAs doorstep. What he does not share with the reader is that FEMA paid for and sponsored a full-scale exercise involving local government the year before the hurricane hit and which exercise contemplated exactly the scenario that happened.

The author covers the importance of media cooperation in the efforts to prepare and then a few chapters later dismisses the Bush administration's recommendations that people obtain the materials to shelter in place. He says that the flaw in the process was not with the concept of sheltering in place but rather the fact that it was subject to jokes on late night TV. Guess why? His political friends attacked the concept not because it was ineffective, but because they wanted to attack the administration and the press jumped in on the effort. This was the perfect opportunity for one or more of his political pals to have put the country first and reminded the press of the research done by RAND, which concluded that sheltering in place was both effective and important in a number of scenarios. The author does in other sections refer to some of the other work done by RAND on this area and recommends reading it.

The author's scenario of a terrorist attack using children is excellent. However, it misses the propensity of the most threatening terrorist groups to incresase the scope and sophistication of attacks. Redlener does understand that unlike most conventional wars the purpose of the attacks are not to cause strategic damage but rather to create terror and to show the inability of the government to stop them. It is far easier to create terror than to stop terrorists, but the public sees it as a "fair fight" so if terror continues the terrorists must be stronger.

Redlener complains that people refuse to prepare but makes no mention that his friends need to stop conveying the message that the government can do everything.

His analysis of the consequences of a nuclear attack is abbreviated and while valuable does not include some of the more important risks. The chapter leaves the victims long before the full extent of the effects are discussed. Again this is probably the consequence of a rush to publish prior to the elections.

Redlener spends pages describing a Seattle earthquake using the techniques of a newscast where the impacts are personalized. While this focus provides drama it misses the enormous importance of critical factors like the time of the earthquake. Both the San Francisco and Los Angeles earthquakes of the early 90s occurred outside of normal business hours. While the San Francisco earthquake affected commuters it did not occur while people were working in high-rise buildings, factories, warehouses, schools and retail stores.

Also missing from the book is a serious look at the impotence of government in the face of a widespread disaster. In military terms there are simply not enough boots on the ground. Consider Los Angles where 3.8 million people (plus vast numbers of uncounted illegal aliens) are protected by a thin blue line of less than 10,000 police officers, 90% of whom live outside the city. In the event of a flu pandemic many will be off duty and if the pandemic is national there will not be other community resources to augment the depleted ranks. Citizens are going to need to be responsible for their own protection.

Perhaps the greatest shortfall is the failure to spend a few more days on the last chapter detailing the development of a family disaster plan, preparing and the need to act. Far too much emphasis is given to what government must do and not enough to what people need to do, especially with respect to taking action early. An example of this was the night prior to the Mayors' order to evacuate New Orleans. The bloggers had access to the information that the city employees were fleeing, that it was critical to begin evacuations prior to the Mayor's announcement and that immediate action was required.

To his credit Redlener recognizes that the military is far better prepared to deal with disasters than most government officials. Some of the greatest advantages of the military are that they are mission oriented rather than PR oriented and their culture rewards leadership.

Not a criticism but rather a suggestion for what hopefully will be a revised version is that our entire disaster relief system appears to ignore the fundamental changes which have occured in our capabilities to communicate and react. If there is one element of New Orleans that displays the failure of imagination it is the failure to instantly create an accessable information system/database for affected persons and families. Craigslist, church groups and local papers filled the gap but in a fragmented approach. Here is an example where the government could have asked one group to create and maintain the system overnight.

The author dwells on the problems of refugees without medical records but does not consider the simplicity of a solution - give emergency physicians access to the programs that were paying for the resident's prescriptions and to the major drug store databases. The information is there, instantly accessable but hidden for a lack of imagination.

The failure to use our resources goes far beyond the simple but highly effective database of the missing, lost, family members and folks offering help. The bureaucratic Red Cross wanted to dominate managment of the relief efforts but focused on New Orleans, a tiny fraction of the affected area. In other areas church groups became the focus of relief efforts in many areas. Unlike the Red Cross they operated a peer to peer national organization and were able to identify needed supplies and workers. Operating at no cost to the taxpayer, happy to recieve most any support they were the stars of the recovery.

I was saddened to see the author comment that his daughter probably did not have room in her tiny apartment for the basic emergency kit. Perhaps he would ask himself what would she do if presented with 6 pairs of highly desirable shoes, find a place for them or refuse the gift.

Had Redlener cleansed the manuscript of excess political diatribe, taken the time to more carefully examine the scenarios he developed and finally and most importantly spent a little more time on development and implementation of personal plans and acting on the plans in time of crisis the book would have been a 7 star homerun.

Redlener might pause to measure his attitude and efforts against the Boy Scout philosophy - be prepared, be honorable and do good deeds.

The coming Armageddon is quite realistically covered by author Irwin Redlener, the Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, in a variety of forms in his foreboding tome. In meticulous, sometimes bitingly dramatic detail, he paints five fatalistic scenarios - an avian flu outbreak in New York City; a major earthquake in Seattle; a nuclear attack; a train wreck that causes the release of toxic chemicals; and a terrorist attack that targets elementary schools in Arizona. Within each scenario, we see a chaotic morass of bureaucracy, and Redlener points out real-life examples of such deficient actions that make the aftermath he describes of such disasters feel palpable.

For instance, in mentioning an actual attack on a school in Beslan, Russia, the author brings to light the possibility that terrorists could go after soft targets, specially women and children, since such sacrifices are more typical in Muslim. He also discusses the threat of nuclear detonations. Just as North Korea proved today, terrorists could use newer technology to assemble small nuclear weapons covertly. Moreover, there are liquid explosives and other such low-tech threats that can be used in even more clandestine ways. The variety found in the possible onslaughts is daunting, especially to the reader, and sadly, no one, from Redlener's informed perspective, seems prepared to handle these disasters optimally. Starting with FEMA's lethargic response to Katrina, there is a wellspring of stories about how Homeland Security has mishandled both money and expertise.

In the most prescriptive section of the book, the author describes a nine-point strategy which amounts to validating good common sense and a more disciplined approach to organization by the government. The author is particularly critical of the random nature of American preparations as opposed to the more pivotally positioned and prepared European nations. Redlener begins his recommendations with having the 9/11 Commission reconvene to address preparedness efforts, and including the expansion of the military role in planning for and responding to major disasters. He also discusses the key role played by volunteer organizations in recovering from mega-disasters with little organized support from the government.

Most tangibly, Redlener discusses citizen preparedness and our sometimes surprising history of lapses in this area, even when such efforts were highly publicized during WWII. Despite common belief, little was actually accomplished in this area at the time. The current threat of WMDs is quite different from the A-bombs of yore since they are so focused in devastation, but the need for personal preparedness is still quite evident. While it may come across as prosaic to tell citizens to stay healthy and fit, Redlener knows full well that it comes down to the individual to ensure larger plans can be mobilized. This is a hard read at times but most worthwhile.

This is absolutely one of the best disaster preparedness books I've ever read! Written by a physician with active experience in disaster preparedness and response, it brings to the table a refreshingly genuine call to action that it unmarred by political aspirations or partisanship.

Dr. Redlener deals capably with the complexities involved in mega-disasters, explaining in layman's terms what Americans can expect and why. He addresses both large-scale and small-scale challenges and opportunities, from a crumbling national infrastructure to the psychology behind Americans' wide-spread failure to take responsibility for basics like having three days of food and a flashlight with working batteries on hand in their own homes.

Especially enlightening were his disaster scenarios, all real-to-life, demonstrating the hows and whys of disaster impact and response. Each one illuminates the many facets of preparedness and emergency planning that daily go overlooked or unconsidered and brings to light ways we can act as individuals and communities to improve our standing before we find ourselves in such an untenable position.

Put this one at the top of your list!

> This provocative and often disturbing book reveals that Dr. Redlener has certainly acquired an impressive grasp of the potential horrific catastrophic events that
> > our country may have to face in the future. His experience
> > as Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness and vast
> > research on the topic make this book likely the #1 most credible account of
> > the potential catastrophes our country may confront going forward and insights
> > into what the government and we as United States citizens can do to help
> > damper the effects of such an event. Redlener's book, while undoubtedly frightening, is as real as it gets.
> > Any one of us could be effected by some sort of megadisaster at any given
> > time and Dr.Redlener at least provides hope that the outcome of such an event
> > is not completely out of our hands. This book is a must read for anybody
> > who has any interest in learning real ways to not only protect oneself but
> > to contribute to a more successful response by our country as a whole in the
> > wake of such a disaster.
> > -
Robert H. Reiner, Ph. D.
Executive Director
Behavioral Associates

Dr. Redlener is, now undoubtedly, the leading expert in the field of Disaster Preparedness. His approach, more than simply theoretical rhetoric, is an excercise in pragmatic problem solving. Dr. Redlener's book should be read by anyone who considers him-or-herself an intellectual, a serious student or a concerned American.

JDC -- Sophomore, Stanford University

I can understand why this movie may have been too violent for mainstream American movie theaters. However, those were violent times and this movie is both complex and dazzling. It is certainly not one that you will ever forget. There are similarities to "Curse of the Golden Flower." Both are visually stunning and full of political intrigue.