Customer Reviews

America's Bubble Economy: Profit When It Pops

5 star:		(21)
4 star:		(4)
3 star:		(5)
2 star:		(6)
1 star:		(3)

 

 

You can give this book a pass. There's really nothing to it, so save your money. While one might agree wholeheartedly with its premise and conclusions, the exposition here is not the best. For comparison, take a look at Stephen Leeb's Chapter 5 in his "Oil Factor" of 2004 and you will see a much cleaner more informative discussion of just about everything in the "Bubble" book. Leeb is far more succinct and authoritative and manages to avoid what is becoming the most overused word in the language -- "bubble." And he does it in 11 pages.

The investment advice in this book, once you get past all the padding, is to buy gold and euros. The advice on gold at least comes with a cursory analysis of the supply and demand situation, but the advice on the euro is given without support. There's no discussion whatsoever of the economic realities facing the European Union and how they might impact the dollar/euro exchange rates. I'm not saying there isn't a good reason to run to euros, just that it appears nowhere in this book.

One of the other reviewers was as annoyed as I was about the poor editing in this book. In addition to misspelling Warren Buffett's name numerous times, including in the index, there is a general carelessness that made reading each chapter a hunt for mistakes. I expect more from Wiley.

If this is your first exposure to discussion of the multiple problems facing our economy from housing prices, government debt, consumer debt, and foreign exchange risks, it may serve as a readable introduction. However, don't expect too much depth and be prepared for typos and misspellings. A two star rating is pretty generous.

It's a quick read -- big type, cartoons and relatively simple concepts cut it down to one or two evenings -- and not too brain-bending ones at that. The authors feel quite confident about their points, and present them swiftly, without delving deeply into statistics or high-level economics (most points take a common-sense, "when x people do y with z, z goes up or down" approach...often with heavily simplified charts and graphs to illustrate).

If they were trying to sell me on a massive investment plan to get-rich-quick right now, I wouldn't feel sufficiently convinced by their approach. But they're not -- this is a practical guide to a possible future scenario: if the Dollar tanks, and tanks big (and the first half discusses the reasons why that's likely sometime in the coming years), they present sound advice as to what to do with your investments; and, in light of that, what you may want to do with some percentage of them now, as a hedge.

While this isn't Eric Janszen's (of predicting-the-internet-bubble-burst fame) book (he only provided one chapter), the authors' philosophy mirrors that of his "iTulip" Web site -- if you find it intriguing, this will provide background and practical applications. If they're right, and you play it well, things will go very well for you. If not -- even if their reasoning is wrong, their recommendations belong in a well-balanced portfolio at times, anyway.

In-a-nutshell contents:
1) Active bubbles (overinvested sectors, most especially the American currency itself) at play in the American/world economies -- how they formed, how big they are, and what happens if they deflate in tandem
2) What sectors would survive or thrive in the several-year global recession that would result
3) A somewhat tangential last-chapter on the likelihood of the global electronic markets someday evolving out of the current bubble-generating multi-currency morass into global monetary unit

Rather annoyingly, the hyperlinks referenced by the book (most sections have at least one "see x on our site for more information") are all dead at the moment -- but it's a new release, so hopefully they'll finish the site soon.

In the 1930's, without any warning, a major hurricane roared in over the Connecticut and New England coastlines and wreaked havoc. The storm's horrific effects were multiplied by the fact that the weather experts had taken a conservative line and issued no warning - despite the best scientific evidence to the contrary. A financial storm of category 5 dimensions appears to be headed for the U.S. in the not so distant future. The real estate and stock market bubbles are due to pop, causing a dollar crash. Excessive consumer credit and governmental deficits of unprecedented dimensions will add to the fire. Based on sophisticated new economics, the book America's Bubble Economy gives us advance warning of the "bubble pop" before it happens - and in time to restructure investments not only to weather the storm, but to profit from it. Fortunately, the book does not attempt to be a long, drawn out hyper technical academic treatise. It is easy to understand, has clear logic, and is not overly complex. However, the book has more depth than the surface writing would make it appear. For example, some books on the dollar crisis, or prospective crashes, predict a depression along the lines of the 1930's. Modern economists are unlikely to repeat the mistakes of the 1930's and restrict the money supply in the face of a major downturn. Instead, they will likely increase the money supply dramatically which will produce inflation in response to a major downturn. It will not be a classic depression composed of excess production and labor capacity which was deflationary in the 1930's. The book explores a future downturn from the bubble perspective, based on deeper historical insight into the nature of bubbles, rather than a simple depression model. It leaves the reader with little doubt about the need for investment restructuring to deal with a bubble pop situation. It gives tell tale warning signs to be on the look out for and lays out a clear path as to how the bubble pop will likely occur. While a lot of financial analysis revolves around what not to put money into, this book gives clear and positive investment actions to take to weather the storm, such as purchasing gold. It even gives interesting insights on the future of foreign exchange and the nature of the changes the "bubble pop" will cause. There may be rays of hope and much better weather after the long storm ends - it will be a much more global and electronic economy than today. Don't let the book's easy reading characteristics fool you - the economics behind this book are very sophisticated. In any event, when dealing with future events, high precision is hard to obtain. We can predict for sure that it will snow this winter in Colorado, but it's hard to predict on exactly what minute of what hour, of what day the first snow will occur. We can predict an economic hurricane in the next few years in the form of a bubble pop, but it's hard to predict the exact time and location of its landfall. This book takes the excellent approach of describing the forest without getting lost in describing too many trees. This book is an essential addition for the library of any reader who seeks to understand and prepare against a future collapse of America's housing, stock, and dollar bubbles, and their interaction with the rest of the economy to produce a truly historic bust.

Concerned Investor

I agree with the other reviewers who have not rated this book high. If the authors are experts they surely have not convinced me of this. Unlike other reviewers, I see the lack of proper editing as less of an issue, as the book was rushed out into the market because of its timely content which is understandable.

The problem I have with the book is that it focuses on America's debt as the only main issue, similar to "Empire of Debt. Unlike "Empire of Debt" this book is more informative, but not by a big margin. While America is in a huge credit bubble, there are many other issues the authors do not address. As a result, they repeat the material over and over and I lost interest.

A much better book (and the best book by far I have read on the topic) is "America's Financial Apocalypse." It details all of the major problems in America and is lacked with an enormous amount of data to support the arguments. The author of this book is clearly an expert.

If you are think the economy is in good shape then "America's Bubble Economy" might be a good place to start your reading. But if you already know about the bubble, you should skip this one and head straight for "America's Financial Apocalypse."

The authors' thesis is correct. Yes, the real estate market, the stock market, and the dollar are part of one big bubble, and America will have gum on its face when it pops.

But the book is a repetitive, unimaginative bore. Points are repeated again and again, ad nauseum. After a couple of chapters, I concluded that the authors, motivated perhaps by fast money, slapped this project together, stretching what could have been a one-page magazine piece into a book. "America's Bubble Economy" is largely bereft of original ideas. The statistics and charts are simple-minded, the writing uninspired. Several times, exasperated, I threw the book down and went to sleep. But, almost certain that their thesis (though hardly original) is correct, I plodded on and finished it, like someone forced to take his medicine.

The only bright spot is Eric Janszen's engaging chapter on gold. Recognizing that gold's value will be as a hedge against inflation, Janszen, slyly placing the words in quotes, says that investors can "make money" on gold. That is, until, at some distant time, gold itself becomes a bubble and pops.

And so the book earns a single gold star, rather than none.

I've read several books recently about profiting from real estate, economic theory, the future of the US economy, etc, and I am more than a little freaked out to report that this book is both the most scary of the bunch and is also panning out to be the most accurate.

I've been recommending "America's Bubble Economy" relentlessly to my friends, and I've changed my investment strategies accordingly. Now I cross my fingers, bite my nails, and hope that Wiedemer, against all common sense and logic, is overexaggerating.

This book examines the American economy in a clear and straightforward way and is a valuable learning tool for investors who wish to understand the likely impact of economic changes in the U.S. and it takes into account America's closest trading partners and offers basic solutions for observant investors to protect and defend our assets.

Normally, most of us get our information about financial investments from respectable business dailies, our brokers, and friends who pay attention. On the rare occasion that I actually check out or buy a book on the subject, I am mindful that the authors point of view is expressed either to confirm their stations as experts or to illuminate one aspect of the economy, whether it be macro or micro-focused and offer specialized analysis. What is refreshing about this book is that the authors are unafraid to tackle a very big (and Gorean 'inconvenient') subject; America's cluster of deficits and the bubbles that have become manifest because of them and are willing to define and summarize a dangerous situation and offer a prognosis and a few thoughtful solutions. The tone is less WSJ and FT and more Economist.

The authors predict that while it may look great today with an expanding stock market and continually inflating real estate values, we should all be mindful of history and not get caught up in the hubris of today's earnings which might quite literally disappear tomorrow. Eric Janszen's clear eyed view (albeit colored by his families good fortune) about gold "for those who hate gold" were particularly riveting. The book uses a kind of "you know this but what if" Socratic method to make you think about the interconnected "bubbles" and how we can "profit when they pop."

I enjoyed the book very much and it was extremely well written. There is humor (and funny illustrations to amplify the points which can be inherently dry) and a confidence about their facts and conclusions (with a few mistakes that any author or speaker inevitably cringes at ex post facto. :) Chapter Two, "How we Got Ourselves Into this Mess" and Chapter Five, "How to Cover your Assets and Make Big Profits with Alternative Investments when the Bubble's Burst" are particularly stimulating. And the conclusions in Chapter Eight (which was long and a tad repetitive) are sound and very thought-provoking. The authors are not just "crying wolf" they seem to understand how in a few years time, transition and upheaval can become stability and wealth creation for "the rest of us." Sandra Halin-Adams, Barnes, Richmond, UK (U.S. Expat accountant and grateful reader.)

This easy-to-read book provides valuable insight into recent economic trends that threaten the U.S. economy. The authors have done an excellent job of presenting the big, somewhat alarming, picture. They also provide valuable advice on protecting your assets when the bubble does pop. America's Bubble Economy is a must read. Don't wait until it is too late.

This book is a refreshing departure from both the dry and "scholarly" tomes that burden most booksellers shelves and the 'hey, I got rich; you can too' indulgences that many would-be wisemen put forward for those of us curious to make sense of a very complicated global economy. Smaller investors a/k/a regular folks will be wise to buy and read this book. While one of my friends said "scary, perfect for Halloween" about the piece, he agrees we can-should-must ponder the excellent thesis that these four co-authors have posited. My best friend is an economist, I am not. In that light, as a true amateur among students of the 'dismal science' this book re-taught me the oft-learned lesson that we have to think, not feel our way to making a solid, safe and remunerative portfolio/nest-egg/estate. What I like about this book the most, is the common-sense-for-the-common-man approach that the authors employed. And as others have observed, it is a great read. It is not as funny as Borat but the book consistently makes you smile. The humor is part of the charm of this entertaining yet enlightening "little" book. Another friend lauded the big type and "many pictures" or as Borat might say "make complicated think-piece big sexy."

If one were "feeling" their way, to profiting from the markets, one would rapidly feel their head aching. This book is must reading because it stimulates rational thought and analysis. It is also an excellent primer on how the U.S. has built a bit of a house of cards and while my heart told me it would be "unpatriotic" to follow the advice of the authors' my pragmatic conclusion, like theirs, is to make smart moves and protect family assets, don't just bet on America Vs. Europe, or worry whether China will eventually become the next lone superpower; face facts and act accordingly. It will be plenty patriotic for Americans to secure assets.

If Papa were to write one true sentence about this book, he might have said; --this book confirms that it is far better to be rich than famous.

Expat George pinching pennies in London

I wish I read this four years ago.

For years I've wondered why no one predicted the bubbles in our economy and why no one is ringing the alarm bell about our nations deficit and debt; now I know someone did and is.

The authors are economists, not professional alarmists or corporate / government cheerleaders. Their observations and recommendations are sagely.

You will definitely want to read their follow-up tomb: Aftershock.