Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) [Hardcover]

Louis Anthony Cox Jr. (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0387890130 | ISBN-13: 978-0387890135 | Publication Date: May 15, 2009 | Edition: 1

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure.  This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

Editorial Reviews

Review

From the reviews: “The new results of this book include many real life applications especially in health management. … More applications to the specialists are given throughout the book. The book is written for practitioners but I think it is quite useful for anyone interested in risk analysis and assessment. … Concluding, this is one of the best books on quantitative risk assessment. I strongly recommended it to anyone interested in reducing risk in this highly volatile world.” (E. Ahmed, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1168, 2009)

From the Back Cover

"Tony Cox is among the most active and creative architects and users of quantitative risk analysis. This book is full of interesting equations, conceptual designs and conundrums that characterize QRA and its applications to risk management. Informed by trenchant thinking and perceptive writing, this is a timely resource for the risk analysis community."  Michael R. Greenberg, Professor and Faculty Dean, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University   "Tony Cox's impressive book applies both simple and cutting-edge risk models to a variety of fields.  It demonstrates creative but tractable ways to model real-world problems of great practical importance regarding biological, engineering, and social risks.  This book deserves to become influential and widely read by those seeking practical state-of-the-art methods for risk analysis."  Vicki Bier, Professor, Engineering Physics and Industrial Engineering & Director - Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis, University of Wisconsin-Madison   "Risk analysis is as old as the first cave dweller mulling how to survive winter or woolly mammoths. It remains essential today in our world of accidents, disease, climate change and terrorism.  But some say that quantitative risk analysis is too complicated or time-consuming, and that qualitative intuition is a better way to make decisions.  In this ambitious and meticulous book, Tony Cox makes the case that quantitative risk analysis is actually the antidote to uncertainty and complexity, superior to other modes of thinking, both practical and effective.  Cox raises the bar on a vital debate."  Jonathan B. Wiener, Duke University, and President, Society for Risk Analysis (2008)   "This is an excellent, approachable read for any risk manager. Simple but devastating examples show how not to do risk analysis.  Insightful case studies apply quantitative risk assessment to natural, random threats, and to terrorist threats posed by an intelligent adversary.  This is a timely and much-needed resource for skeptical consumers of risk analysis advice and products, and for those who need to improve upon current, dangerously simplistic, guidance on threat assessment and risk management."  Gerald G. Brown, Distinguished Professor, Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA   "This book provides a refreshing new perspective on quantitative risk assessment, and should be of interest to a wide range of practitioners. Drawing substantially on his own work, Tony Cox demonstrates that QRA can be applied even to challenging and complex systems."   Suresh Moolgavkar, Vice President and Principal Scientist, Exponent Scientific Consulting; Professor of Epidemiology, University of Washington  

Product Details

• Hardcover: 464 pages
• Publisher: Springer; 1 edition (May 15, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0387890130
• ISBN-13: 978-0387890135
• Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.2 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.7 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,889,252 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars real risk analysis, June 7, 2009

By 

Gerald G. Brown (Monterey, CA USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) (Hardcover)

This is an excellent, approachable read for any risk manager; understanding its examples requires only elementary probability, statistics and calculus, though the foundations are much deeper. The author uses direct language, and does not hesitate to declare a fashionable risk analysis technique "worse than useless." The author shows how not to do risk analysis, using simple but devastating examples to illustrate the weaknesses of prioritized investments, subject matter expert opinion, risk matrices and qualitative risk assessments, and the independence assumption. Then, case studies present constructive examples of good practice. Refreshingly, this text clearly distinguishes between threats from Mother Nature, and those posed by an intelligent adversary. There is unevenness, because this is an edited ensemble of papers originally published in a variety of technical journals; however, this is also a strength, because the appeal and scholarship underlying biological, engineering, and social science examples is broad. This is not a how-to guide, and won't help fill in a blank page risk analysis; however, this is an excellent source for the skeptical consumer of contemporary risk management advice and products, and hopefully will have some influence with policy makers who are the source of simplistic and dangerous guidance.

Gerald G. Brown
Distinguished Professor of Operations Research
Naval Postgraduate School
National Academy of Engineering
INFORMS Fellow

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Comprehensive and example-laden - Every issue is touched, November 12, 2009

By 

Douglas W. Hubbard (Glen Ellyn, IL) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) (Hardcover)

I have used Cox's research in my own recent book, . He is a colleague who has written numerous articles on this topic and has combined those along with his practical experience to write this critical book. It touches on every major issue in the area of risk assessment - which includes many issues that other risk assessment authors either dare not touch or are simply unaware of.

The most impressive feature of this book is the litany of examples in literally every chapter. He draws on a wide spectrum of different fields including public health, airline safety, engineering risks and terrorism. It is an extremely comprehensive treatment of quantitative risk assessment methods and each method is backed up with practical applications.

For me, the most important part of this book is the large section Cox dedicates to "Avoiding Bad Risk Analysis". He systematically debunks what I think are the most popular methods in business today. I even used his phase "Worse than Useless" to describe such methods in my book (properly attributed, of course) because nothing else says it better.

But Cox doesn't just endorse every method used in quantitative risk assessment. He is careful to point out the potential flaws and proposes specific solution. Debunking these popular methods is the first step. The second step is adopting an improved quantitative approach to risk assessment. This book covers all of it.

Highly recommended.