How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 - Russell Napier sets out to answer these questions by analysing every article in the "Wall Street Journal" from either side of the market bottom. In the 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging. By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best financial provisions for the future. This new edition includes a brand new preface from the author.
Anatomy of the Bear
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Book Description
--This text refers to the
Paperback
edition.
Editorial Reviews
About the Author
Russell Napier is a consultant with CLSA writing on issues affecting global equity markets. After studying law, he began his investment career at Baillie Gifford in Edinburgh managing funds in the Japanese, then the US and finally the Asian markets. Moving to London he was responsible for managing Asian portfolios. In 1995 he relocated to Hong Kong to become the Asian strategist for CLSA. He occupied that position full time until 1999 during which he was ranked number one for Asian strategy in all major industry polls. Since 1999, apart from fulfilling a consultancy roll for CLSA, Russell has created and established a new course called A Practical History of the Financial Markets which is taught through Edinburgh Business School.
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
47 of 47 people found the following review helpful
By Edster
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Another classic of this type is "Manias Panics and Crashes".
This one is specific to the four big Bear markets of the last century. The author goes through each one as an example. He identifies each stage and has clippings from the markets on peoples sentiment. Shows pricings and looks for what was the best indicator at the bottom. There is no hype, predictions, or false systems in this book. It's more presenting information and presenting patterns that occured.
All the bears follow similar patterns where there is froth, leverage, money sloshing around and everything is priced up a bit. Then some triggering event happens and people either re-evaluate or are forced to change their minds on valuations. Prices drop until they hit a bottom. Things uptrend for a while even though the news is still bad.... The author goes over each bear and how it's the same and how it's different.
Until reading this book, I did not understand or even think about using commodity prices as a leading indicator. Did not know that the stock market turned up before the economy did. Did not know that the great depression involved multiple stages, an international banking crisis, and a late move to gold.
After reading this book, now when I see someone on the TV saying that "They've never seen anything like this before" about LTCM, Bear Strerns, or the price of oil or gold... I have a better perspective. When someone tells me that "the market has definately found bottom" or "Can't go down from here"... I kind of chuckle now.
I do know that when people say "This is a great time to buy stocks..." they often don't know what they're talking about, or they're making it up.
If the credit crisis worsens this year, this summer or the next may be the best buying opportunity in the US stock market in the last 30 years. Hopefully what I've read will be some help. Every downturn is different, and Banks/Fed/Investors act differently each time based on past exp and history... It may be that we've already hit bottom... It may be that nothing in this book will call the next bottom... Only time will tell.
Many won't read this book because it doesn't say "Get RICH QUICK" on the front... LOL
This one is specific to the four big Bear markets of the last century. The author goes through each one as an example. He identifies each stage and has clippings from the markets on peoples sentiment. Shows pricings and looks for what was the best indicator at the bottom. There is no hype, predictions, or false systems in this book. It's more presenting information and presenting patterns that occured.
All the bears follow similar patterns where there is froth, leverage, money sloshing around and everything is priced up a bit. Then some triggering event happens and people either re-evaluate or are forced to change their minds on valuations. Prices drop until they hit a bottom. Things uptrend for a while even though the news is still bad.... The author goes over each bear and how it's the same and how it's different.
Until reading this book, I did not understand or even think about using commodity prices as a leading indicator. Did not know that the stock market turned up before the economy did. Did not know that the great depression involved multiple stages, an international banking crisis, and a late move to gold.
After reading this book, now when I see someone on the TV saying that "They've never seen anything like this before" about LTCM, Bear Strerns, or the price of oil or gold... I have a better perspective. When someone tells me that "the market has definately found bottom" or "Can't go down from here"... I kind of chuckle now.
I do know that when people say "This is a great time to buy stocks..." they often don't know what they're talking about, or they're making it up.
If the credit crisis worsens this year, this summer or the next may be the best buying opportunity in the US stock market in the last 30 years. Hopefully what I've read will be some help. Every downturn is different, and Banks/Fed/Investors act differently each time based on past exp and history... It may be that we've already hit bottom... It may be that nothing in this book will call the next bottom... Only time will tell.
Many won't read this book because it doesn't say "Get RICH QUICK" on the front... LOL
44 of 45 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
This book is a detailed history of the financial markets in the US, particularly the 4 bear markets in the 20th century. The style is a little technical, but still fairly readable. It could have used a little more editing (typos) but it's still a well-researched and very thoughtful book.
The author's main thesis is that stock markets move from periods of overvaluation to periods of undervaluation, and that there are certain signs that can be found at the end of any bear market. This information would be extremely valuable to any serious investor - rather than listening to a lot of the chatter on the internet or on TV, which often amounts to little more than cheerleading and wishful thinking, the information in this book will help an investor analyze at what point in the bull-and-bear cycle the market is at.
Obviously a lot more money can be made when buying at the bottom of the market, and the author did extensive research to uncover the indicators of a market bottom, so that you can apply them when the time comes.
Most recent investors have only seen bull markets, and so don't recognize the signs of a real, steep bear market - often losses can exceed 50% or more, perhaps 70%. Sometimes it can take decades to recover from the losses. This book will open the eyes of anyone who has believed the mantra, "it doesn't matter when you buy, just get into the market anytime, since stocks go up forever."
The author's main thesis is that stock markets move from periods of overvaluation to periods of undervaluation, and that there are certain signs that can be found at the end of any bear market. This information would be extremely valuable to any serious investor - rather than listening to a lot of the chatter on the internet or on TV, which often amounts to little more than cheerleading and wishful thinking, the information in this book will help an investor analyze at what point in the bull-and-bear cycle the market is at.
Obviously a lot more money can be made when buying at the bottom of the market, and the author did extensive research to uncover the indicators of a market bottom, so that you can apply them when the time comes.
Most recent investors have only seen bull markets, and so don't recognize the signs of a real, steep bear market - often losses can exceed 50% or more, perhaps 70%. Sometimes it can take decades to recover from the losses. This book will open the eyes of anyone who has believed the mantra, "it doesn't matter when you buy, just get into the market anytime, since stocks go up forever."
20 of 20 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
This book is rare in that it examines the four greatest bear market bottoms that would have made you the most money if you would have entered them at the right time, instead of the endless books out that show how to buy the hottest stocks in a perpetual bull market. What I like about this book is that the author stays away from his own opinions and simply shows the facts by examining the Wall Street Journal articles during each of these periods, August 1921, July 1932, June 1949, and August 1982. These were the actual bottoms when the market finally began to reverse. You will surprising see that unlike common Wall Street myths the bottom is not when things are the worse and everyone has a negative outlook, actually the WSJ article show that there was hope of a turn around, volume had dried up, P/E ratios were obviously absurdly low, and car sales were beginning to pick up. You will do very well to buy and read this book and add its information to your arsenal of trading and investing. While most of us sit out bear markets to keep our gains it is very important to know when to buy back in for the next up leg, this book can help you do just that.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
4.0 out of 5 stars
Time the troughs
This is a study of the four best moments to buy American stocks in history, namely 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. These occasions were followed by long secular bull markets. Read more
Published 4 months ago by eqtbooks
1.0 out of 5 stars
The book is not from 2009 as indicated on amazon
The author has interesting and sound views in terms of cycles in the marketplace. This book is a historical review and probably deserves three or four stars where it not for the... Read more
Published 23 months ago by Jackal
5.0 out of 5 stars
Great Study of Long-Term Bear Markets
The main thing I learned from Anatomy of the Bear is that at the bottom of a secular bear market, the news is pretty good. Read more
Published on November 21, 2010 by Citizen John
5.0 out of 5 stars
Worth reading.
Although some times the reading becomes a bit "heavy", the author did a great job in making this matter affordable everyone. Read more
Published on October 12, 2009 by Erminio Di Lodovico
5.0 out of 5 stars
Fantastic book
it's a fantastic book that covers not only the four biggest US bear market but also the whole history of US stock market. Read more
Published on September 10, 2009 by Kou Zhiwei
4.0 out of 5 stars
10 signals to success
Imagine being a stock investor during the roaring twenties. The Dow Jones Industrial Index gained around 420%. Read more
Published on June 29, 2009 by Jim Hunnington
3.0 out of 5 stars
Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's Four Great Bottoms
It is more of a stock market history book and can be
boring to read at times. The conclusions
basically summarized the 290+ page of material.
boring to read at times. The conclusions
basically summarized the 290+ page of material.
Published on March 12, 2009 by A. Chan
5.0 out of 5 stars
If you're thinking about investing now, read this book!
Its now 2009, and we are already in the midst of one of the greatest bear markets in history. It only makes sense to read this book before deciding whether or not to jump back into... Read more
Published on January 24, 2009 by Avi Cohen
5.0 out of 5 stars
Clear insight to help one bear it
This book, written before the melt down, is a must read in these times. The events leading up to the falls are reviewed and more interesting now, when things bottom. Read more
Published on December 2, 2008 by Doc
5.0 out of 5 stars
Must read for anybody interested in investing
This is an excellent book on the history of stock market in U.S.
I remember somebody said something like this:
If you want to know the future you need know the history... Read more
I remember somebody said something like this:
If you want to know the future you need know the history... Read more
Published on May 26, 2008 by Minifig
