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Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (Studies in Philosophy) Hardcover – July 12, 2002

ISBN-13: 978-0415938587 ISBN-10: 0415938589
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"From traffic analysis via a many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics and the problem of the fine-tuning of the universe to the purely philosophical problems of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem, Bostrom succeeds in shining a new and interesting light on all of these issues." --Wouter Meijs

"Bostrom presents a highly readable and widely relevant work which can be warmly recommended to everyone in philosophy of science."--Christian Wuthrich, Philosophy of Science

"Probably the worst thing one can say about this book is that it is too short....Anthropic Bias is a wonderful achievement, which should find place on the shelf of every serious student of modern philosophy of science, epistemology, and cosmology." --Milan Cirkovic, Foundations of Science

"Anthropic Bias is a synthesis of some of the most interesting and important ideas to emerge from discussion of cosmic fine-tuning, the anthropic principle, and the Doomsday Argument. It deserves a place on the shelves of epistemologists and philosophers of science, as well as specialists interested in the topics just mentioned."--Neil Manson, Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews

 

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Product Details

  • Series: Studies in Philosophy
  • Hardcover: 240 pages
  • Publisher: Routledge (July 12, 2002)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0415938589
  • ISBN-13: 978-0415938587
  • Product Dimensions: 0.8 x 6.2 x 9 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #4,608,386 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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More About the Author

Nick Bostrom is Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy at Oxford University. He is the founding Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, a multidisciplinary research center which enables a few exceptional mathematicians, philosophers, and scientists to think carefully about global priorities and big questions for humanity.

Bostrom has a background in physics, computational neuroscience, and mathematical logic as well as philosophy. He is the author of some 200 publications, including Anthropic Bias (Routledge, 2002), Global Catastrophic Risks (ed., OUP, 2008), and Human Enhancement (ed., OUP, 2009), and the groundbreaking Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (OUP, 2014). He is best known for his work in five areas: (i) existential risk; (ii) the simulation argument; (iii) anthropics (developing the first mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects); (iv) impacts of future technology; and (v) implications of consequentialism for global strategy.

He is recipient of a Eugene R. Gannon Award (one person selected annually worldwide from the fields of philosophy, mathematics, the arts and other humanities, and the natural sciences). Earlier this year he was included on Prospect magazine's World Thinkers list, the youngest person in the top 15 from all fields and the highest-ranked analytic philosopher. His writings have been translated into 22 languages. There have been more than 100 translations and reprints of his works.

For more, see www.nickbostrom.com

Customer Reviews

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31 of 34 people found the following review helpful By Milan M. Cirkovic on September 11, 2002
Format: Hardcover
Why the universe is just so? The question has been posed by scientists and philosophers for millenia, but only very recently have we accumulated enough physical and astronomical knowledge to be able to discuss these issues in a serious and quantitative manner. And, lo and behold! what modern cosmologists began to explore in earnest is a sort of necessary link between our own existence as intelligent observers evolved from the simplest procaryote lifeforms over billions of years and the properties of universe (and other universes!) at large. This link is technically called an observational selection effect, and if from now on anybody wishes to seriously study these matters, "Anthropic Bias" is without question an excellent place to start.
Bostrom's book makes amusing, although at times quite exacting, reading. Early on, he gives a splendid overview of the entire field of anthropic reasoning, much used and abused in the last quarter of century. Then, almost imperceptibly, he passes on to several instances in which the nature of the anthropic selection effect becomes clearer and clearer. From quantum cosmology to annoying traffic jams, from quantum mechanics to Adam and Eve thought experiments, from freak observers created by black holes' evaporation radiation to the (in)famous Doomsday argument of Gott, Carter and Leslie (not to mention future totalitarian world government and paranormal causation), the book reads as an exciting detective novel, as you rapidly change settings following the same thread of evidence to the main culprit: the universal observational selection effect, explained in detail in the Chapter 10, arguably the culmination of the drama.
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9 of 9 people found the following review helpful By Rob Zahra on April 10, 2009
Format: Hardcover
This is a powerful unification and expansion of a number of papers Bostrom has written. He's usually many steps ahead of most other thinkers on whatever subject he's considering, and this appears to me to be the case here as well. I'm not fully comfortable with the conclusions about the relativity of one's choice of reference class, but I don't currently see any better solution. This book has made it much easier to think about the issues clearly. Highly recommended.
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7 of 8 people found the following review helpful By Peter McCluskey on March 16, 2005
Format: Hardcover
This book discusses selection effects as they affect reasoning on topics such as the Doomsday Argument, whether you will choose a lane of traffic that is slower than average, and whether we can get evidence for or against the Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics. Along the way it poses some unusual thought experiments that at first glance seem to prove some absurd conclusions. It then points out the questionable assumptions about what constitute "similar observers" upon which the absurd conclusions depend, and in doing so it convinced me that the Doomsday Argument is weaker than I had previously thought.

It says some interesting things about the implications of a spatially infinite universe, and of the possibility that the number of humans will be infinite.

It is not easy to read, but there's little reason to expect a book on this subject could be both easy to read and correct.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By Tim Tyler on January 7, 2014
Format: Paperback
This is the second book on observation selection effects I have read. The first was Barrow and Tipler's book on the topic. The good news is that this book is better than Barrow and Tipler's book was. On the positive side, the book embraces and uses Bayesian statistics, which helps to clarify many of its examples. It is a good example of how to use mathematics helpfully in a popular science book. The book is easy to read and clearly presented. However, I felt that it failed to make some important steps.

The history of the idea of observation selection seems like a bit of a scientific embarrassment. To clarify the field, I think there are some inter-disciplinary links that need to be made. We already have a fairly mature and well-established science of selection - in the form of evolutionary theory. Observation selection is special a case of selection - and so needs to be married with evolutionary theory. Similarly, "survival of the fittest" is an instance of the more general principle of "observation of the observable". Both areas produce cases of adaptive fitness.

Another relevant link is the maximum entropy principle - which is part of Bayesian statistics. This book presents what it calls the "Self-Sampling Assumption" - the idea being that:

"All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set of all actually existent observers (past, present and future) in their reference class."

The "Self-Sampling Assumption" represents the maximum entropy principle applied to observers - in the special case where nothing is known about which member of a set of observers is involved.

The maximum entropy principle neatly covers this case - and it deals with other cases where additional information is available.
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Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (Studies in Philosophy)
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