Customer Reviews

The Art of Contrary Thinking

5 star:		(4)
4 star:		(4)
3 star:		(2)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(2)

 

 

Mr Neill lays out in short, specific chapters, his arguments for why popular opinions often times turn out to be wrong, while the opposite, contrary opinion, would turn out to be corrrect. The historical examples he uses make one wonder if the "New Economy" of the 1990's is really just a precursor to the types of events seen in the late 1920's/early 1930's and the early 1950's, when prominent economists touted a New Era of prosperity (we all know what the happened afterwards).

Mr. Neill also cites past writers who analyzed the behavior of man, and how he gets caught up in the "herd". While sometimes getting off the subject, Mr. Neill lays out a clear framwork of how one assesses what the "popular" opinion is, and how to teach yourself not to get caught up in the herd and to think independantly.

A highly recommended book for those who wish to understand how contrary minds think, or for those who need a "refresher" (getting your mind out of a rut according to Neill).

Often, less experienced investors overlook the big picture topics such as macroeconmics and behavioral finance and focus on the investment book of the month which is invariably trash. This book was originally written many decades ago and the fact that it is still selling is a testiment to its quality.

When you look at al of the current investment books out in print, how many do you think will still be selling 40 years from now? Of course, back then, the publishing world was selective. Today, it focuses on publishing books about investing by big name preachers and sports legends or psychopaths with useless TV shows because they know people will buy them.

If you cannot appreciate this book then you have a very long way to go towards becoming a good investor. And if you are a good investor, this book is just another step towards your progression into a great investor.

A collection of old essays by Neill who followed the market steadily from the depression days to his death in 1977. Neill is from a long gone generation of men and his words don't always translate well to today's Nintendo generation. Neill's sometimes odd writing style doesn't help the flow any. It took me multiple reading to grasp his style and some points. He's mature, seasoned, a real American original. I think it's a Vermont thing.

But the genius of this book lies within the valuable insights and nuggets of wisdom spread out randomly within. That said, some essays are of questionable relevance or downright archaic. But many are golden and relate to all generations. If you have ever REALLY put some skin-in-the-game, you'll relate to his views on patience, risk, and learning to think from both sides of the coin. Find these easter eggs and you will become a better investor.

The book is inexpensive and a must-buy for anyone seeking to invest their own money.

The book contains about 75 (very) short essays that suppose to be about contrary thinking...Well after about the 10th essay - they all have more or less the same thing to say....I was not able to get any significant tangable benifit out of this book....As a matter of fact one of the few books I did not finish - not worth the time (got about 1/2 way).

It has been nearly 15 years since I first read this fine book by Humphrey B. Neill, but upon the second reading I realized that what he was really discussing was behavioral finance before such a thing became a part of our lexicon. Now of course, there seems to be a book published every month, or week, on the subject with respect to behavioral finance or the social sciences.

However, this is not your typical book as it really is not a book at all but a collection of prior essays by the author. Mr. Neill published the "Neill's Letters of Contrary Opinion" beginning in 1947 until his death in 1977. Many of these letters/essays later became the book which was originally published in 1954, though updated in later editions. As such, since this is a compilation of letters/essays there is some overlap in the essays as they are written in different years. The author also published another book on technical analysis called "Tape Reading" which confuses some folks as this book has very little to do with technical analysis, if any. The main theme is stated very clearly in the first few pages as "Human behavior is fully as important as, if not more important than, statistical behavior." So on my second reading reflection, this book really is about historical market behavior with many references to other books which would now be classified under the Behavioral Finance heading.

As Warren Buffett's sidekick Charlie Munger is want to say, and to paraphrase, "if you want to be a good investor you must read extensively and know your history." This book is as much about history as it is about the observations of human nature and crowd psychology. All told, The Art of Contrary Thinking may not have made me any money, but it kept me from losing a significant amount over the years. So with that background, this book comes highly recommended for any investment library shelf.

An excellent book if you want to think!, what I meant by that is, the author gives you scenarios about when you would use contrary thinking and you have to think and apply the scenario to a time that you have in mind,also talks about mass crowd mentalaty,what kind of people follow the crowd etc.

In the book The Art Of Contrary Thinking, Author Humphrey B. Neill states:

"The crowd is most enthusiastic and optimistic when it should be cautious and prudent; and is most fearful when it should be bold."

By reading The Art Of Contrary Thinking, you'll understand human psychology and what contrary opinion is, how to apply it to the markets when investing, and how it can aid you in your critical thinking. Measuring and evaluating the sentiment of the crowd is key to successful trading, because it is the crowd that has the greatest effect on the future price movement of the stock.

I enjoyed the book and it has many very useful information. It does suffer from repetition and also from being written over 60 years ago

An excellent book from years past that is very valid today in it's thinking and judgement of correct thinking.

It has made me really look into myself and what I have been doing and thinking about my whole life.

This book can be read over and over for the insight to the corect way to think in most any situation.

Full of spelling mistakes and weird characters. Not edited probably in 50 years but still has some good insights. For $10 cant really complain