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74 of 76 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
A Skeptics guide to Fundamental Analysis, April 26, 2003
This review is from: The Art of Short Selling (A Marketplace Book) (Hardcover)
I came across this book years ago in a bookstore, browsed through it, and put it away. Being caught up in the study of technical analysis at the time, I clearly wasn't ready at the time to find value (pun intended) in Staley's fundamental approach to the market. This time, however, I'm listening to her. With a bit more experience, I can appreciate 3 of the many lessons _The Art of Short Selling_ teaches: 1) Fundamentals drive market action...eventually 2) It is often a costly mistake to short a stock simply because it apepars overvalued. A catalyst of some sort is needed to encourage massive selling. 3) Markets can ignore negative fundamentals for significantly extended periods of time--giving the astute trader ample time to sell at a profit, or even turn and sell short. Positive fundamentals are more rapidly incorporated into stock prices, but significant inefficiencies still exist on both sides of the market--long and short. The author uses case histories of significant corporate failures from the 80's and early 90's in light of the publicly available info at that time, which clearly demonstrated the inivetable fall of Wall Street's institutional favorites. Numerous fundamental techniques are discussed, such as tracking changes in inventory and receivables, as well as tricks companies play to make revenues and earnings appear better than they are. Also interesting--a high short interest ratio in a stock is often a significant sign of potential trouble in a company. Do not let those analysts lead you to believe a high short interest ratio is always bullish. Check the fundamentals and make your own call. Qualitative factors are also discussed, with specific examples on how a close reading of public financial data on one company would have lead you to a profitable short sale of another. This occurs frequently in the finance and insurance industries. This book is especially important, because every book I've seen teaches which stocks to BUY on a fundamental basis. No book ever mentions what fundamental factors suggest you SELL. Even if you never sell short, this is profitable info. Being a student of technical analysis, what struck me is the insight those skeptical shorts had about the companies mentioned. Clearly, they knew the eventual outcome in each specific instance. Yet, despite being right, most of these guys lost millions by going strictly by fundamentals. Those who survived incorporated additional (ie. technical) factors, such as relative strength or momentum. As Keynes stated, "The market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent." It is clear to me that using both fundamental and technical analysis is the most efficient path to market profits.
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27 of 28 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Excellent teaching manual for identifying companies to short, January 21, 1997
By A Customer
This review is from: The Art of Short Selling (A Marketplace Book) (Hardcover)
Staley presents a thorough examination of the process of selecting companies for shorting. While Joseph Walker's book, "Selling Short" gives us the nitty-gritty details of the shorting transaction, Staley gives us the reasons for going short in the first place. She covers in fair detail the nature of short sellers and why some are successful while others are not. The majority of the book is comprised of case studies, written in the folksy style one finds on Wall Street Week (TV show) or in books like "The Motley Fool". Unlike "The Motley Fool" this book presumes at least a basic understanding of accounting and knowledge of financial statements. My one criticism of the book is common to many others in this genre; that being nobody edits these books (or, if they do, it is by running the "Spell Check" function on the word processor). Sometimes the folksy banter and financial slang is so thick it gets confusing. Nonetheless, this book is a must read if you are considering becoming a short seller; if for no other reason that it may save you a great deal of heartache and financial loss by convincing you that shorting is not for you.
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35 of 38 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars
More suitable as an introduction than technical training, April 15, 2000
This review is from: The Art of Short Selling (A Marketplace Book) (Hardcover)
This book offers an excellent introduction, explanation and overview of short selling as well as success stories. There is no doubt that short selling should be an integral part of any market participant's strategy. However, if you are looking for a reference explaining how to apply technical analysis to the identification of overvalued stocks, then this book falls short. I cannot blame the author for heavily emphasizing the psychological aspect of short selling as too much enthusiasm, confidence and greed are mostly what drive up a stock's price to unreasonable valuations. Likewise, when the "castles in the air" disappear, the stock's price normally plummets and creates a very profitable opportunity for short sellers. It is critical to recognize when these stages are at their peaks and Ms. Staley does provide tell tale signs. I think this book has something to offer all investors. Whether or not it is found to be helpful largely depends on the individuals investment strategy and what tools he relies upon.
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