At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market [Hardcover]

Robert R. Prechter Jr. (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: August 1996

Just like Elliot Wave Principle, its super-bullish predecessor from 1978, this updated and abridged paperback version of At the Crest of the Tidal Wave presents a scenario that appears too dramatic and specific to be more than unfounded conjecture. However, the author's forecasting toll is again the only one that has proved its value in addressing future market probabilities. The result is social science at its best.

If even half of the author's forecasts come to pass, the world of finance just a few years hence will be immeasurably different from what it is today. Using the same precise approach that he employed a month after the 1982 low at Dow 777 to forecast a great bull market that would carry the Dow Industrial Average to near 4000, Robert Prechter now calls for slow motion economic earthquake that will register 11 on the financial Richter scale. The Great Assert Mania of recent years is in its final euphoric months, he says, and the next event will be a collapse of historic proportion.

If you are already well versed in the Wave Principle and prepared for the change that is coming, then ignore this book. If you are not, then devour it cover from cover. Be prepared for a shift in the tectonic plates that make up your mind's notions about financial causality. Above all, get ready for a violent shaking of your faith in conventional economic wisdom.

--This text refers to the Paperback edition.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"There is an old Arab proverb which says that "When you go shopping for wisdom, visit every tent in the bazaar." When Robert Prechter published his first book in 1978 predicting the super bull market of the 1980's, only a very few people visited his tent. I hope more people visit his tent today, in order to understand the financial, economic and social implications of At the Crest of the Tidal Wave.", Marc Faber, , Faber Ltd, Hong Kong#"Robert Prechter and R.N. Elliot will be remembered as the two greatest social scientists of this century for their understanding of mass psychology, markets and the economy.", Donald Evans, President, FX500 Money Management#"The icy logic and stunning originality with which Prechter predicts the impending death of our Grand Bull Market make At the Crest of the Tidal Wave eminently worthy of attention. But the fact that years ago this author virtually stood alone in prophesying the birth of this very same bull market renders his current vision absolutely indispensable to serious investors.

", Paul Macrae Montgomery , , Legg Mason Wood Walker#"Recently I finished reading for the third time Charles Mackay's classic, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, first published in 1841. Not much has changed, and here we are at yet another turning point in history... At the Crest of the Tidal Wave probably will join Mackay's famous book as one of the most prescient of the past 175 years.", Charles Allmon, President , Growth Stock Outlook#"At the Crest of the Tidal Wave is a brilliant and important piece of long wave research with potentially devastating investment implications for the future.", Paul Tudor Jones II, President, Tudor Investment Corp#"The scholarly discipline, ultra long-term historical perspective, and topical diversity of Robert Prechter's discerning At the Crest of the Tidal Wave will challenge all serious investors to re-examine today's "buy and hold" mantra.", Henry Van der Eb, Chairman, Mathers Fund# --This text refers to the Paperback edition.

From the Inside Flap

This book reads like a thriller. It is a financial detective story with a touch of market romance. Just like Elliott Wave Principle, its super-bullish predecessor from 1978, this updated and abridged paperback version of At the Crest of the Tidal Wave presents a scenario that appears too dramatic and specific to be more than unfounded conjecture. However, the author's forecasting tool is again the only one that has proved its value in addressing future market probabilities. The result is social science at its best. If even half of the author's forecasts come to pass, the world of finance just a few years hence will be immeasurably different from what it is today. Using the same precise approach that he employed a month after the 1982 low at Dow 777 to forecast a great bull market that would carry the Dow Industrial Average to near 4000, Robert Prechter now calls for a slow motion economic earthquake that will register 11 on the financial Richter scale. The Great Asset Mania of recent years is in its final euphoric months, he says, and the next event will be a collapse of historic proportion. If you are already well versed in the Wave Principle and prepared for the change that is coming, then ignore this book. If you are not, then devour it cover to cover. Be prepared for a shift in the tectonic plates that make up your mind's notions about financial causality. Above all, get ready for a violent shaking of your faith in conventional economic wisdom. --This text refers to the Paperback edition.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 475 pages
• Publisher: New Library Classics; Second Edition edition (August 1996)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0932750397
• ISBN-13: 978-0932750396
• Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.3 x 1.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 2 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (12 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,694,116 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

For Robert Prechter's full biography, please visit www.robertprechter.com.

Robert R. Prechter, Jr., is a financial and social theorist and a market analyst. He has written 14 books. Elliott Wave Principle with A.J. Frost (1978) forecasted the great bull market of the 1980s and 1990s. Conquer the Crash (2002, 2009), a New York Times bestseller, predicted the current global financial crisis in detail. Prechter's two-book set Socionomics (2003) shows how his social and financial theories weave together with his market forecasting approach: Waves of group mood determine the tenor of society's actions, from more inward, dark, bearish expressions to more outward, sunnier and bullish endeavors. Prechter's newest website, www.socionomics.net, explains his socionomics hypothesis and how it applies to various human arenas.
Prechter has dedicated much of his career to employing and enhancing R. N. Elliott's financial pricing model called the Wave Principle. He began his career as a Technical Market Specialist with the Merrill Lynch Market Analysis Department. Prechter is President of Elliott Wave International, the world's largest market forecasting firm. EWI serves institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial Theory
Prechter's theory of financial causality proposes a separation between finance and economics. In the economic realm, goods and services have utility value and mostly are priced rationally via the Law of Supply and Demand. This leads to rough equilibrium. In the financial realm, investments are priced non-rationally, with changes fueled by uncertain future demand and according to the Law of Patterned Herding. This approach generates speculation and unceasing dynamism. Only once the analyst recognizes this divergence can he properly view financial pricing, Prechter asserts.

Socionomics
Prechter's theory of socionomics says that trends and events across a broad spectrum of human interaction are impelled by a common immutable force: social mood. With its claim that mood impels action and events, socionomics is unique; most social theories posit the reverse.
The Wave Principle
As a market analyst, Prechter applies the Wave Principle, a financial pricing model identified and described by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. According to this model, financial market prices develop in a series of five- and three-wave forms and produce a fractal. Prechter has written and/or edited a dozen books on the Wave Principle. Prechter began applying the Wave Principle to financial markets in 1972. Prechter's firm, Elliott Wave International, analyzes every major financial market in the world, 24 hours a day, according to the Wave Principle.

Awards
Using the Wave Principle, Prechter won the U.S. Trading Championship in 1984 with a then-record 444% return in four months in a monitored, real-money options trading account. Prechter has won numerous speaking, timing and publishing awards, and in 1989, he was named "Guru of the Decade" by the Financial News Network (now CNBC). In 1999, Prechter received the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts' first annual A.J. Frost Memorial Award for Outstanding Contribution to the Development of Technical Analysis. In 2003, Traders Library granted him its Hall of Fame award.

Miscellaneous
Prechter was born in 1949. He attended Yale University on a full scholarship. In 1979, Prechter founded Elliott Wave International and began publishing monthly market analysis under the masthead, The Elliott Wave Theorist. He was a nine-year member the Market Technicians Association's board and was the MTA's President in 1990-1991. Prechter employs a staff of analysts who apply the Wave Principle, real-time, to every major market in the world. He recently created the Socionomics Institute, which elucidates socionomics, and he underwrites the Socionomics Foundation, which is dedicated to supporting socionomics-related academic research. Elliott Wave Principle has been translated into a dozen languages, and Conquer the Crash was a New York Times bestseller. Prechter has made multiple speeches and media appearances around the globe. In 2008, the Georgia state legislature asked Prechter to testify before the legislature's Joint Economic Committee regarding the developing real estate crisis. Bob is a member of the Triple Nine Society, the Shakespeare Oxford Society and the Shakespeare Fellowship.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

55 of 58 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A must-have roadmap for the years to come., April 20, 1999

By A Customer

This review is from: At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market (Hardcover)

Welcome to Dow 10,000. So, what's next? Skies the limit, right? Do you know what it means when everyone you know is in the stock market? Have you ever wondered why only the big name stocks have been soaring like rockets for years, while those of most small and medium size companies have languished? Would it surprise you to know that the 15 year rise in bonds has not been a bull market at all, but a BEAR MARKET RALLY? How far must the price of gold fall before it finally reaches "rock bottom"? And finally, what do you think your home will be worth ten years from now? Read this book and you will have an excellent guide to all these questions. Robert Prechter has seen it all. He entered the financial world in the early 1970's, just in time to witness the last true bear market in U.S. stocks. He forecasted the 1982 breakout of the Dow Jones Industrials four years before it occurred. His prediction was widely considered impossible and out of touch with the realities of late 1970's. And importantly, he then predicted that it would blossom into the full blown mania we are seeing today. As the world's foremost practitioner of the Elliott Wave Principle, Mr. Prechter has the long range view required to see just where we are in the "big picture". And although we've been patiently waiting since this book was written (1995), all the pieces are slowly, but surely, falling into place. I've read nearly fifty books on financial markets, many of them considered classics, and I can honestly say that this is one of only two books you'll ever need to own on the subject. The other is "Elliott Wave Principle", by Frost & Prechter.

19 of 20 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Must Read, October 28, 2001

By 

Thomas G. Montgomery (Midwest USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market (Hardcover)

This book is a must read for financial survival. Prechter has an engaging writing style. His opinions are often outrageous and sometimes too extreme. This value of this book is in that it is so different from the conventional financial press.

Almost alone Prechter predicted the great bull market back in 1979. He then called the top prematurely but at least he did warn this readers that a top was coming. The scope of Prechter's vision is awesome. He has charts with trendlines going back to 1700 with projections for the next century.

Chapter 11 "Manifestations of Investor Psychology" is very powerful.

14 of 15 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Don't Wait for the Noise, December 22, 2001

By A Customer

This review is from: At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market (Hardcover)

There was a movie which showed an approaching tidal wave. There was no noise because the wave was travelling faster than the speed of sound. This is the case of the oncoming financial tidal wave of disaster. One can hear the bullish rantings of a stream of advisors, nudging us into a sleeping wonderment of good things to come. The tidal wave is on its way. Prechter has pointed out the various items unfolding before our eyes. He was early in many of the prognostications, but they are surely falling into place. If you read the book, you will surely see how they are unfolding. Your financial health is at stake. The tech wreck was only the beginning. Read on, there is still time, but the book will be out of date in a couple of years.