On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the post- war era confronts a famine-ridden and possibly nuclear- armed totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea, and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study (*), the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. Out of these, the future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and muddling through in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation. June 2000. 300 pages (approx.). ISBN: paper 0-88132-278-4. $22.00.
I am an economist working at the interstice of economics, political science, and international relations. My book, "Avoiding the Apocalypse: the Future of the Two Koreas," won the prestigious Ohira Memorial Prize. My recent books are "Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea" (co-authored with Stephan Haggard), and "Arab Economies in a Changing World" (co-authored with Howard Pack).
In addition to these (and other) books I have written many scholarly articles on isues such as international economics, US trade policy, and the economies of the Asia-Pacific region, as well as op-eds for publications such as Newsweek International, the International Herald Tribune, the Financial Times, and the Washington Post. I have served as an occasional consultant to organizations such the National Intelligence Council and have testified before the US Congress on numerous occasions.
