Customer Reviews

Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas

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By drawing on other-country parallels such as German unification, or the experiences of China and Vietnam as they re-engaged with the world community, "Avoiding the Apocalypse" provides interesting insights about N. Korea's future and the possible implications for the South. This book is unique among other N. Korea titles in that it is underpinned by rigorous economic analysis while, at the same time, exhibiting a sound understanding of geopolitical dynamics of the peninsula and of the interests of key player countries (S. Korea, Japan, US, China). The book presents a comprehensive analysis of N. Korea's economy and policies (past and present), and an assessment of future prospects for the Korea peninsula in light of several plausible alternative scenarios of policy developments in the North.

"Avoiding the Apocalypse" contains a wealth and depth of information Mr. Noland has obviously acquired through his research and interactions with key economic, political and military personalities in North and South Korea, Japan, the US and China. I found this book to be very well written, and in a style accessible to a general educated readership. Unusually for such a weighty book, the text includes cross-cultural sayings (i.e. proverbs) and metaphors, in addition to insider quotes, that make the book an interesting read indeed.

I recommend the book highly for anyone interested in a thorough review of N. Korea and in knowing what the current state of play is as regards N. Korea's integration into the world community of nations. If you're interested in a fresh and intellectually stimulating perspective on the events unfolding on the Korean peninsula, this is also the book for you.

Winston Churchill described the Soviet Union as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma," but then again, unlike Marcus Noland, Churchill never visited North Korea.

South Korea has risen from the ashes of the war to become a modern country. North Korea faces a famine. (My church and many others are involved in famine relief there.) If the North Koreans opened up their system they could catch up with South Korea -- afterall, they are all Koreans. As it is, they rely on selling missiles to countries like Pakistan, worsening the Pakistani confrontation with India, and creating headaches for the US and other countries.

This book examines this geopolitical hot spot. It analyzes the missile and nuclear issue, the famine, and the financial crisis in South Korea. It then considers three scenarios for the future of the Korean peninsula. The economics can get a bit heavy going, but it is not difficult to follow the thread of the argument. This book is particularly good on the issue of how developments in the North could affect political and economic developments in the South. It would behoove President Bush and his advisors to read this book.

This book is a delight - the author combines serious economic and political analysis with rich knowledge of institutions and history on the Korean peninsula. Moreover, he knows how to write. He makes sophisticated arguments seem easy. For readers concerned with the future of South and North Korea, this is essential reading.

The book consists of a thorough overview of the current situation on the peninsula with a brief but insightful review of the historical processes that have brought us to this point. It distills in a accessible manner the vital insights from the author's formal models of the Korean economy. Most importantly, it weaves all of these different viewpoints into a coherent and persuasive story.

All of us have a few books that we keep near our desks as basic reference. This is just that kind of book. It is a comprehensive overview of political, economic, and security developments on the peninsula today. It is carefully argued and copiously researched. Excellent index.

The central issues of this book are not only of importance to the Koreans themselves but to the United States, Russia, China and Japan. One of its great strengths is to place the Korean experience not only in the context of Asia, but importantly, in the context of the experience of Eastern European countries.

The case of North Korea might be considered the pupil exceeding the teacher: North Korea took central planning and political repression to extremes never achieved in the Soviet Union.

Now it has a large industrial sector and missiles, but it cannot feed itself. The experiences of Russia, Belarus, Romania (not just China)are quite important to understanding the future of North Korea. The book uses good analytical models to understand the situation and does a very good job of exploiting the knowledge of Russian and other Eastern Bloc scholars' insight into North Korea.

The Korean peninsula faces a complex foreign policy crisis involving the interplay of economic and security issues. "Avoiding the Apocalypse" is magisterial in scope, integrating the economic, political, and security dimensions. The sheer breadth of the book is remarkable. The book covers the development of the South Korean economy and the financial crisis that has rocked the South in the past few years. It offers an insightful look into the workings of the North Korean economy, and how the failings of that economy led to both strategic adventurism and famine. The final third of the book is devoted to an analysis of future scenarios on the peninsula. Noland identifies as most likely a scenario in which the North undertakes ad hoc policy adjustments while supported by engagement with South Korea, China, Japan, and possibly even the United States. While the book is thoroughly researched and referenced, its tone is quite lively and accessible to a broad audience -- at times even drolly humorous. An excellent and important work on Korea.

For those who try to understand the conundrum that is Korea, this book is a stiff cold wind, and entirely welcome. Indeed it is a daunting read, full of econometric and logical analyses, but Avoiding the Apocalypse : The Future of the Two Koreas repays careful reading many times over.

Aside from the rigorous analysis, however, are the three concluding chapters. The author discusses three alternative paths for North Korea's future, and reaches a conclusion. Not only is the author open-minded, but the prospect for each scenario opens up possible policy implications for all countries involved.

This book also provides useful information on South Korea, even though it is billed as a book on North Korea. In many ways, the author's reflections on Korean history and South Korean development are more useful than the North Korean sections. Before North Korea can be dispassionately analyzed, South Korean success must be analyzed.

I put down this book and reached the conclusion, that the world just may have to live with a North Korea, de-villified, but certainly dangerous, for a long time. South Korea also faces more difficulties than it realizes, and should look at North Korea as an example in negative.

Still, with all the analysis and history, the mystery that is Korea is still there in the shadows. This book does admirably well with figures and facts, but so much is misunderstood. This book does as best as any could with this emotional subject, and, hopefully, will be the basis for thought, not rhetoric.

Dr. Noland's book is terrific source of background knowledge on both Koreas. Not only do you get a thorough analysis of the current situation, but he also outlines the history that brought both Koreas to where they are today. For the advanced student of Korean economics and politics, it is a must. Even for someone coming from a business perspective with a more casual interest in Korea, such as myself, I found the book easy to read and gave me the background to better understand the people and their economy. Dr. Noland's view of possible outcomes in the situation is also a fascinating read.

We must understand economics to understand the situation in South and North Korea today. Dr. Noland analyses the situation in both South and North Korea and makes recommendations for a peaceful future. It is an important book for everyone interested in South and North Korea.

This is a remarkably well-written book, enjoyable to read while scholarly and comprehensive. Noland addresses both north and south Korea, and the timing of the book is excellent, given that recent events in Korea have focused world attention there. The book's approach integrates economics with politics and security, rare in volumes like this. In addition, the writing style itself is appealing, with drolly humorous observations and insights imbedded in the text.