Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics [Hardcover]

Bobo Lo (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: September 2008

Few relationships have been as misunderstood as the "strategic partnership" between Russia and China. Official rhetoric portrays it as the very model of international cooperation: Moscow and Beijing claim that ties are closer and warmer than at any time in history. In reality, however, the picture is highly ambiguous. While both sides are committed to multifaceted engagement, cooperation is complicated by historical suspicions, cultural prejudices, geopolitical rivalries, and competing priorities. For Russia, China is at once the focus of a genuine convergence of interests and the greatest long-term threat to its national security. For China, Russia is a key supplier of energy and weapons, but is frequently dismissed as a self-important power whose rhetoric far outstrips its real influence."Axis of Convenience" cuts through the mythmaking and examines the Sino-Russian partnership on its own merits. It steers between the overblown interpretation of an anti-Western (particularly, anti American) alliance and the complacent assumption that past animosities and competing agendas must always divide the two nations. Their relationship reflects a new geopolitics, one that eschews formal alliances in favour of more flexible and opportunistic arrangements. Ultimately, it is an axis of convenience driven by cold-eyed perceptions of the national interest. In evaluating the current state and future prospects of the relationship, Bobo Lo assesses its impact on the evolving strategic environments in Central and East Asia. He also analyzes the global implications of rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing, focusing in particular on the geopolitics of energy and Russia-China-U.S. triangularism.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

In this timely, eloquent and meticulously researched assessment of the strategic partnership between Russia and China, Lo (Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy) explores how their alliance has evolved on political, economic and military fronts. The author counters recent claims that cooperation has reached a level unprecedented in history with salient examples of opportunism and narrowly defined self-interest on issues ranging from foreign policy and energy to weapons and national security. While the image of a formal, longstanding partnership bolters their standing in the international community—and as a counterbalance to U.S. hegemony—there are fault lines: Russia fears Chinese irredentism in its far eastern regions (once part of imperial China during the Qing dynasty and inhabited by ethnic Chinese populations), and China must temper its need for Russian energy and weapons to avoid perceptions of dependence and risking its important trade links with the U.S. Lo suggests possible directions in which these ties and hierarchies are likely to shift in the next decade, illuminating the mechanisms and realities behind rhetoric and media-spin in which political regimes are often complicit. (Nov.)
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Review

"Love each other or loathe each other, Russia and China are going to need to work with each other in the years ahead, just as they have in the past, and this book is a good place to start working out this complex, fascinating relationship." —Kerry Brown, Asian Review of Books

"In this timely, eloquent and meticu-lously researched assessment of the "stra-tegic partnership" between Russia and China, Lo explores how their alliance has evolved on political, economic and military fronts." — Publishers Weekly

"Lo's writing is engaging and accessible, and provides a cool-headed critique of the folly of melodramatic terms in understanding international relations.... It is a book which provides a much-needed moment of pause in the current whirlwind of speculation and suspicion of the world's lesser understood political actors." —Elmear O'Casey, Atlantic-Community.org

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 277 pages
• Publisher: Brookings Institution Press; First Edition edition (September 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0815753403
• ISBN-13: 978-0815753407
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.2 x 1.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #192,586 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars The myth of the Sino-Russian strategic alliance, July 25, 2009

By 

J. Michael Cole (Taipei, Taiwan) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics (Hardcover)

The history of Sino-Russian relations is a long and tortuous one between neighbors that eyed each other with suspicion. To this day, the Russian psyche continues to be affected by memories of the Mongol invasion and fear of the "yellow peril," with images of "barbarian" hordes pouring over the border seared in people's consciousness. For Chinese, Russia was for a brief period a modernizer and ally, but also a threat, as during the border clashes in 1969, which came close to sparking nuclear war. On one side, Russia sees itself as a great power, one which draws ideologically mostly from Western civilization; on the other, China is rising, but its identity is firmly rooted in the Asian tradition and its focus is on domestic development and regional stability.

The long history of mistrust and ideological differences makes Russia and China the least likely of allies. But since the end of the Cold War, the two countries have grown closer and managed to settle, if only temporarily, a number of territorial disputes such as the contentious Russian Far East. Cooperation has increased dramatically in such fields as military procurement and natural resources, while Moscow and Beijing have helped create regional security bodies -- such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization -- to facilitate coordination and "democratize" international relations.

This is not to say that the process of rapprochement was not without friction. As Bobo Lo, director of the Russia and China programs at the Center for European Reform, argues in Axis of Convenience, the road to convergence was marred by a combination of different expectations, underlying xenophobia and changing global circumstances. Rather than progress smoothly, relations between Moscow and China suffered many setbacks, such as when, in the wake of 9/11, Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed the US to deploy troops in Central Asia without first informing Beijing.

Lo, whose thesis rests on the assumption that international relations are becoming more, rather than less, chaotic, argues that despite the extraordinary achievements in Sino-Russian rapprochement in the past two decades or so, the notion of a "strategic alliance" is pure fantasy. The idea of strategic convergence, of a shared long-term view of the world, Lo writes, requires suspension of disbelief on Russia and China's part, mostly because both countries are looking for different things. Tellingly, despite the closer ties, both have external reference points that give precedence to relations with the US, Europe and to a smaller extent Japan. In other words, if circumstances forced either to choose between good relations with the West or their commitment to the Sino-Russian alliance, both would conceivably choose the former. It is already clear that if China were to attack Taiwan, Russian would be unlikely to jeopardize its relations with the West for China's sake. Similarly, Beijing has been wary of Moscow's adventurism and has kept a safe distance lest support for Russia when its behavior creates instability undermine the image of "peaceful rise" China has been cultivating.

Still, despite the divergences and contradictions, Moscow and Beijing have made grandiose proclamations of friendship and have tended to overemphasize the importance of their alliance. This, in part, has been aimed at the US, whose presence in the Asia-Pacific region and Central Asia is unwelcome by both. Notwithstanding the shared goal of undermining US influence the region, their strategy has given rise to a triangular relationship in which Russia and China threaten each other -- and the West -- to go to the "other side" if they do not obtain favorable terms on a number of political matters. Russia, which sees itself as an "energy superpower," has often played that card on oil and natural gas, threatening to "go East" and cut the flow of energy to Europe. As Lo points out, however, these threats have been more successful in putting Russia's reliability into question than obtaining concessions from the EU or NATO.

What will likely have the greatest impact on the future of Sino-Russian relationship however, is the growing power imbalance between the two countries. Russia is a mere shadow of its former self, and despite its claim to great power status, it is no longer able to dictate outside its immediate neighborhood. It is increasingly ignored by the international community and would be more so if it weren't for its natural resources and nuclear arsenal. China's economic development, meanwhile, has turned it into first a regional, and now global, center of gravity. Its military, while still no match for Russia's, has undergone rapid modernization, thanks in part to Russian arms sales. Moscow, therefore, realizes that an increasingly assertive China risks pushing it further to the periphery, and some sectors of the political establishment are using those fears to score points or stoke nationalist sentiment. One question that is often raised is whether after China completes unification with Taiwan the Russian Far East could be next. Another outlet for Russian fears is the new Great Game that is developing in Central Asia, in which Russia and China are vying to become first among equals.

Increasingly, the once subservient and underdeveloped Chinese are treating Russia as little more than a source of energy. Realistic about the reliability of Russia, however, China has wisely diversified its sources, which means it would have many alternatives to choose from if relations soured again.

What emerges from Lo's useful book is a portrait of a relationship that is far more tactical and predicated on immediate needs than one that is based on and a shared view of what the world should be, which means that changing circumstances on the international scene will severely test its durability. With that, we can expect strategic tension, and perhaps occasional clashes, to characterize Sino-Russian relations for years to come, a scenario that Lo sees as the likeliest.

While not denying the substantial achievements that have been made in recent years, Lo convincingly argues that there is less to the Sino-Russian "strategic partnership" than meets the eye.

(Originally published in the Taipei Times on July 26, 2009, page 14.)

5.0 out of 5 stars Sobering, December 11, 2011

By 

Niro (Mass, USA) - See all my reviews

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This review is from: Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics (Hardcover)

An interesting read on the advantages and disadvantages of a Russian-Sino alliance. The cynic and the optimist of the new convience between these huge countries will both put this book down plenty of times, to shake out the preconcieved notions they had all along in their heads. Surprising and very thought fulfilling. You do not want to miss this if the geopolitics of central and east Asia fascinate you.

5.0 out of 5 stars Great look at how two powers are transforming a region, October 24, 2010

By 

Lehigh History Student (Bethlehem, PA) - See all my reviews
(VINE VOICE)   

This review is from: Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics (Hardcover)

Axis of Convenience provides an interesting look at the political strategy of Russia and China in relation to the Far East and central Asia. Bobo Lo considers the modern Russian approach to a multivector strategy that focuses on Europe but also uses areas like the Middle East and China as part of its strategic considerations. While China is a quickly rising power it is still primarily a regional power that seeks influence in the Pacific Rim and Central Asia. Lo considers the rapprochement between China and Russia to be a factor of geopolitical convenience that was necessitated by the decline of the Soviet Empire and the attempt to keep the United States out of Central Asia, or at minimum limit its presence, in a post 9-11 world. Russia's main lever of power against China is not military, as they are outnumbered and not up to the level of technology, but economic related to its oil and gas fields. The specter of a energy hungry China has helped Russia maintain higher prices in Europe and allows for the rising of gas and oil prices against its former vassals in Central Asia. Russia's growing domestic demand is likely to sap more of that oil than the amount going to China but it is a consideration that Russia has utilized very well.

The bottom line of the various strategic partnerships that have been reached by Moscow and Beijing is that they are more talk than substance. While substantial progress has been made when one starts from essentially zero it is easy to make progress. The future is uncertain with where this relationship will go although it appears to be on a good track for gentile cooperation especially if the United States tries to remain in Central Asia. For those looking to understand the power dynamic between Russia and China this is a great book to start with.