Following the liberation of Iraq in 2003, why are Iraqis still fighting? To extinguish the fires that burn in Iraq, one must discover why it is ablaze, what would move Iraqi politicians to put out the fires, and what would induce Iraq s neighbors to quench the flames. Heat, fuel, and oxygen are necessary to cause fire. So, what are the causes of violence in Iraq? There are three:
First, the occupation of Iraq provided the initial spark and ongoing heat for the insurgencies. But occupation is not the main cause of continuing violence in Iraq. Occupation is a pretext for terrorist groups to build organizations, for sectarian groups to broaden their political base, and for Iran to seek control over Iraq politically, militarily, and economically.
Second, ethnic and religious strife, prior discrimination by Sunnis against Shiites, disputes over federalism, de-Baathification policies, differences over a proposed national oil law, and disputes about equitable distribution of oil and natural gas revenues contribute to Iraqi instability.
Third, Tehran s subversive sponsorship of militias is like oxygen fanning the flames of conflict in Iraq. The Iranian regime provides training, weapons, and funding for primarily Shiite militias but also for other militias across the political spectrum, including al Qaeda. Instability allows Tehran to influence Iraqi factions in pursuit of its own ideological and national interests. The Iranian regime has also developed a comprehensive socio-economic network in Iraq based on its economic, financial, trade, and investment activities in the country to win Iraqi hearts and minds.
How to put out the fires? Extinguishing the fires ablaze in Baghdad requires a shift toward an unconventional war strategy that undermines militias and insurgent groups; engagement of moderate Iraqis who favor an independent, secular, and democratic Iraq with clear distance from Tehran via the offices of the Iranian opposition in Iraq the Mujahedeen-e Khalq; and an international realignment that isolates Tehran and empowers the Iranian people for democratic change.
On the basis of research and analysis, the Iran Policy Committee recommends the following steps to extinguish the blaze in Iraq:
1. Prevent Tehran from infiltrating its paramilitary and intelligence forces into Iraq by stopping them at the border and/or arresting them in Iraq.
2. Isolate the Iranian regime diplomatically and economically to constrain its influence in Iraq; if reaching out to Tehran were the policy, however, it would be wise to reach out to the opposition as well.
3. Enlist the MEK to wean Sunnis from the insurgency and break the cycle of sectarian violence.
4. Empower the Iranian people by de-listing the Mujahedeen-e Khalq from the Foreign Terrorist Organizations lists of the United States and European Union.
5. Win Iraqi public support to take direct action against Iranian proxies in Iraq, including disarming the militias.
6. Support Iraqi economic growth, while decreasing Iran's subversive role in the Iraqi economy.
