Customer Reviews

Bankruptcy, Credit Risk, and High Yield Junk Bonds

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Reading this guy's work is a real testimony to the staying power generated by doing something first. His 1967 paper on bankruptcy was the first to estimate a multivariate default prediction model. THAT'S 35 YEARS AGO. Things like computers and more data make both his estimation algorithm and parameter estimates relics of little significance, and his inability to recognize this is symptomatic of a more cluelessness exhibited in his discussion of other matters (he doesn't simply reference the old model; it's now irrelevant structure is examined and built upon throughout the book).

Very little of what is here is new, and what's new isn't that good either. Freshmen looking for succinct references to someone their professor has heard of but not read will appreciate this volume. I suggest reading S&P or Moody's research instead.

I have written software based on Altman's original work and it still comes up with surprisingöy accurate results however there are still many issues about how modern companies are structured and the shift to a services based economy where people are one of the main assets of many corporations.