Baseball Prospectus 2010 [Paperback]

Baseball Prospectus (Author)

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The bestselling annual baseball preview from the smartest analysts in the business

The essential guide to the 2010 baseball season is on deck now, and whether you're a fan or fantasy player-or both-you won't be properly informed without it. Baseball Prospectus 2010 brings together an elite group of analysts to provide the definitive look at the upcoming season in critical essays and commentary on the thirty teams, their managers, and more than sixty players and prospects from each team.

• Contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teams
• Projects each players stats for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system, which has been called "perhaps the game's most accurate projection model" (Sports Illustrated)
• From Baseball Prospectus, America's leading provider of statistical analysis for baseball

Now in its fifteenth edition, this New York Times bestselling insider's guide remains hands down the most authoritative and entertaining book of its kind.

Top Ten Ways Your Friends Will Know You Haven't Read Baseball Prospectus 2010

10. You think signing Jason Bay for $66 million was a great move, and wish Omar Minaya had gone harder after Bengie Molina and Jarrod Washburn.

9. You drafted Derek Jeter and Derrek Lee early in your fantasy league this year.

8. You can't imagine why we'd need their new pitching stat--SIERA--when we already have ERA.

7. You think this might be Houston's year.

6. You've never heard of Jesus Montero, Jason Heyward, or Mike Stanton.

5. You've heard of Montero, Heyward, and Stanton, but without BP's new "MLB %" playing time projection, you overdrafted them.

4. You think your team will be better than the Yankees this year.

3. You're not bleary-eyed from staying up all night reading hundreds of pages of smart stats and witty commentary.

2. The name Matt Wieters doesn't make you giggle a little.

1. You're Brian Sabean.

From the Back Cover

New York Times Bestseller

David Wright

Will his power come back when the Mets need it?

Madison Bumgarner

Do the Giants have a second Lincecum in the wings?

Matt Wieters

Will this year be the young catcher's year?

Albert Pujols

Can he be this awesome forever?

B.J. Upton

Which version will the Rays get this year?

Adam Lind

The new Jason Bay, or the new Mike Jacobs?

Featuring Nate Silver's Deadly Accurate PECOTA

Projections for More Than 1,600 Players

"Baseball Prospectus has become the standard by which all scouting guides should be measured."

–Billy Beane, General Manager, Oakland A's

The 2010 Edition of the New York Times bestselling guide

"THE BEST BOOK OF ITS KIND."—Rob Neyer, espn.com

Now in its fifteenth edition, the Baseball Prospectus annual shows once again how it became the industry leader: the 2010 Edition includes brand-new stat categories, more controversial player predictions, and the kind of wise, witty baseball commentary that makes this phone-book-thick tome worth reading cover to cover.

Baseball Prospectus 2010 provides fantasy players and insiders alike with Nate Silver's uncannily prescient PECOTA projections, which Sports Illustrated has called "perhaps the game's most accurate projection model." Still, stats are just numbers if you don't see the larger context, and Baseball Prospectus brings together an elite team of analysts to provide the definitive look at all thirty teams—their players, their prospects, and their managers—to explain away flukes, hot streaks, injury-tainted numbers, park effects, and overrated prospects who won't be able to fool people in the Show like they have down on the farm.

Nearly every Major League team has sought the advice of current or former Prospectus writers, and readers of Baseball Prospectus 2010 will understand what all those fans have been raving about.

"Baseball Prospectus adds to our understanding of the game."—Bob Costas

"Witty . . . savvy . . . a rich snapshot of where the game and its reference books are today and where they're going."—Sports Illustrated

"Baseball Prospectus continues to raise the bar for innovative baseball analysis every year."—Mark Shapiro, General Manager, Cleveland Indians

"If a general manager hasn't read Baseball Prospectus, he should be fired for incompetence."—Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball

Baseball Prospectus 2009 correctly predicted:

• The collapse of 2008 stars Joe Saunders, Carlos Quentin, Daisuke Matsuzake, Ryan Ludwick, and Josh Hamilton.
• Breakout seasons from Max Scherzer, Colby Rasmus, Pablo Sandoval, and Andrew McCutchen.
• Major comebacks for Javier Vasquez, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, and Robinson Cano.
• That Toronto and Houston weren't as good as their records in 2008—and that management would find out the hard way in 2009.
• That the Yankees' astonishing free-agent spree—the biggest off-season ever—would be worth it this time around.
• That the Angels would get to the playoffs, but that's it. Again.

Visit www.baseballprospectus.com for year-round baseball coverage.

Product Details

• Paperback: 672 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (February 22, 2010)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0470558407
• ISBN-13: 978-0470558409
• Product Dimensions: 10.9 x 8.3 x 1.6 inches
• Shipping Weight: 2.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (14 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #355,667 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

47 of 47 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The usual good stuff, and this year it has an index!, February 18, 2010

By 

Hal Jordan "A reader" (USA) - See all my reviews
(VINE VOICE)   

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This review is from: Baseball Prospectus 2010 (Paperback)

I'm giving it five stars, but my feelings are mixed. Given how much I look forward to it and how quickly I read it, and given I think it is the best guide out there to players and teams, five stars are merited. But, as always, I wish they took another couple of weeks and gave the book a thorough editing. Although I didn't find any errors as gross as last year's omission of the index, there is an unevenness in the writing that indicates that they are publishing what is essentially a first draft. For instance, consider this comment on Travis Ishikawa: "someone whose threat to right-handed pitching rated up there with a girlfriend's mom: inconvenient but unavoidable, so don't slip while she's in the room." I've read it four times and I have no idea what it means. Is he trying to say that Ishikawa (who bats left) does or doesn't hit right-handed pitchers well? If the book had an editor that sentence would never have made it to publication. Maybe the rush to publication has something to do with the timing of fantasy baseball drafts. Whatever the reason, year after year the Prospectus is less professional than it should be.

One other beef: Steven Goldman contributes a preface celebrating the Prospectus's fifteenth year of publication. A significant milestone, I guess, so some horn tooting is in order. But for a group that is so hard on the people who run major league teams, some acknowledgement of the Prospectus's own fubars would have been nice: The year they published on really low-grade paper and the print was smeared, the year the adjusted ERAs were totally bollixed up, the year the data on comparables had no relation to the text discussion, last year's omission of an index, and so on. And then there's Goldman's evaluation of Bill James. Now I understand that many in the analyst community are tired of genuflecting before the altar of St. Bill. But Bill James created the business these guys are in. Before the Bill James Baseball Abstract there was no market for this kind of commentary. It wasn't that the market was small or underdeveloped, there simply was no market for this kind of commentary published by a major firm and sold at places like Barnes & Noble. James created that market. Here is everything Goldman has to say about James in his discussion of the pre-Prospectus world: "Bill James came out with a book once a year, but skipped 1989 and then experimented with various flawed formats before disappearing altogether after 1995." This is roughly the equivalent of summing up Babe Ruth's impact on baseball by saying: "Ruth hit a lot of home runs for awhile, but then he got old and fat, his production declined, and he retired." If you read the whole of Goldman's preface, he is claiming for the Prospectus the role that was actually played by James's Baseball Abstract.

Ok, no more carping. If you like baseball enough to be thinking of buying this book, then you should buy it. You won't find a more complete or entertaining evaluation of players and teams. The book could be better, but even as it is, it's the best out there.

18 of 20 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Great resource to start a new season of Major League Baseball, February 20, 2010

By 

Steven A. Peterson (Hershey, PA (Born in Kewanee, IL)) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Baseball Prospectus 2010 (Paperback)

Each year, I buy a Bill James book and this volume to prepare for the new major league season. Both provide a delicious array of statistics. This volume surely stands on its own, though.

The book is, for the largest part, an analysis of each major league team. One of the most intriguing statistics developed is PECOTA, the projected statistics for each position player and pitcher for the upcoming season. Lots of fun when a season is over the check out the predictions! Consider these predictions: Batting average leader--Ichiro Suzuki; Home run leader--Prince Fielder; RBIs--Prince Fielder; Pitcher wins--C. C. Sabathia; Pitching saves--Joakim Soria.

My second favorite team in baseball is the star-crossed Chicago Cubs. They are fated, according to projections, to finish 82-79, so--by this book's predictions--another year without a World Series championship. My favorite team is the Pale Hose, the Chicago White Sox. Dreary news. They are predicted to finish 80-82. Looks like we won't be having an "el" series.

Let's take a look at the White Sox in greater detail. The section begins with a three and a half page narrative. Then, the player by player record (the past three years of performance) and the estimate of the 2010 record. Gordon Beckham had a nice season in 2009--.271 batting average, 14 home runs, and 63 RBIs. For the coming year? PECOTA numbers: batting average=.273, 16 homers, and 69 RBIs. Another feature is an estimate at what will happen--12% of a breakout year, 42% chance of improvement, 1% chance of attrition, and 14% chance of a collapse in performance. Paul Konerko is aging. His PECOTA scores indicate continuing decline. 23 homeruns, .251 average, 72 RBIs. Long gone are the 30 homer and 100 RBI seasons that once characterized his productivity. Another key player is the relief ace with the bulging belly, Bobby Jenks.34 savers and a 3.50 ERA, a decline from a handful of years ago.

Just to provide another example. . . . The New York Yankees are projected to finish first in the American League East with a record of 101-61. Derek Jeter is projected to hit .286 with 11 home runs and 58 RBIs. 26% chance of a collapse and 37% chance of attrition. A-Rod? .276 average, 31 home runs, and 92 RBIs.

So, another fine volume. If I can, I will crab at the rather snide comments about Bill James, who, as another reviewer notes, helped create the market for books like this. That said, this is a must read for baseball's figure filberts.

4 of 6 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars best annual baseball publication, February 24, 2010

By 

Jeff R. Johnson "Milwaukee JJ" (Milwaukee) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Baseball Prospectus 2010 (Paperback)

The annual Baseball Prospectus is, IMO, the single best annual baseball publication available (and there's some dynamite competition - thank you Bill James and other sabermetricians). Lots of information and articles for the baseball junkie to read and digest here. Mine arrived the other day and I've been reading it non-stop!