10. You think $86 million dollars sounds like the perfect price to pay for three years of Derek Jeter and Rafael Soriano.
9. You drafted Josh Hamilton or Ubaldo Jimenez in the first round of your fantasy draft this year.
8. The fielding metrics you've been looking at tell you Kevin Kouzmanoff and Matt Holliday were elite fielders last year.
7. You think this might be Chicago's year.
6. You've never heard of Chris Carter, Jesus Montero, or Steven Hill.
5. You've heard of Carter, Montero, and Steven Hill, but without BP's "MLB %" playing time projection and scouting report, you overdrafted them in your fantasy league.
4. You think your team will be better than the Red Sox this year.
3. You're not bleary-eyed from staying up all night reading hundreds of pages of smart stats and witty commentary.
2. The words "Vernon Wells traded" don't make you giggle a little.
1. You're Ed Wade.
From the Back Cover
"THE BEST BOOK OF ITS KIND."—Rob Neyer, ESPN.com
Now in its sixteenth edition, the Baseball Prospectus annual shows once again how it became the industry leader: the 2011 Edition includes key stat categories, more controversial player predictions, and the kind of wise, witty baseball commentary that makes a phone-book-thick tome worth reading cover to cover.
Baseball Prospectus 2011 provides fantasy players and insiders alike with uncannily prescient PECOTA projections, which Sports Illustrated has called "perhaps the game's most accurate projection model." Still, stats are just numbers if you don't see the larger context, and Baseball Prospectus brings together an elite team of analysts to provide the definitive look at all thirty teams—their players, their prospects, and their managers—to explain away flukes, hot streaks, injury-tainted numbers, park effects, and overrated prospects who won't be able to fool people in the Show like they have down on the farm.
Nearly every Major League team has sought the advice of current or former Prospectus writers, and readers of Baseball Prospectus 2011 will understand what all those fans have been raving about.
"If you're a baseball fan and you don't know what BP is, you're working in a mine without one of those helmets with the lights on it."
"Witty . . . savvy . . . a rich snapshot of where the game and its reference books are today and where they're going."
"Baseball Prospectus continues to raise the bar for innovative baseball analysis every year."
—Mark Shapiro, President, Cleveland Indians
"If a general manager hasn't read Baseball Prospectus, he should be fired for incompetence."
—Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball
Baseball Prospectus 2010 correctly predicted:
The collapse of 2009 stars Derek Jeter, Derrek Lee, Adam Lind, Pablo Sandoval, Ben Zobrist, Todd Helton, and Miguel Tejada
Major comebacks for Kelly Johnson, Rickie Weeks, and Aubrey Huff
Breakout seasons from Carlos Santana, Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, and Pedro Alvarez
That the Cubs' aging, expensive stars would put the team not only out of contention, but into rebuilding mode
That the Mets' injury problems, poor starting pitching, and absence of corner outfield power or a decent catcher would sink them for 2010 (and probably for 2011), leading to a round of firings
That Texas would put a great team on the field, a team well poised to compete for years to come