9 of 9 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
a master handicapper explains his craft, December 13, 2006
This review is from: Beat The Sports Book: An Insider's Guide to Betting the NFL (Paperback)
Dan Gordon's updated NFL handicapping book is the kind of book one doesn't so much read as study. Handicapping the NFL over a period of many years is hard work, serious work, and Gordon takes it very seriously. Properly done, it ends up amounting to a part-time job. We are not talking about making easy money betting on football.
The first point, which might be obvious to bettors but bears repeating, is that football odds as set by oddsmakers are not meant to predict the actual outcome of the game - they are meant to attract equal distributions of money bet on each side, and this is not the same thing. They have their customers, the casinos, offshore and (illegal) local books to think of. You are not their customer. There are thus opportunities for discrepancies to exist which the bettor will be able to exploit for profit.
Gordon reviews how oddsmakers come up with the line, the various regular and more exotic bets available (on which he spends very little time until the very end of the season), and the odds both mathematical and psychological/social working against the would-be winning bettor. This is all very clearly explained and well written. Further, he assesses various information sources that amateur bettors use, usually to their financial loss, such as much major media, touts, some sports services and professional commentators, all of which generally talk a good game but when their win/loss records are finally revealed are shown to be highly problematic. Worse, they tend to judge themselves against a 50% win/loss barometer, when of course the winning bettor must clear 53% just to stay even.
Further, not only knowledge and applied research, but also timing of bets proves to be highly important. Gordon is honest enough to show numerous cases where he had early access to better prices or numbers, or where these evaporated so quickly, he could not recommend a game to his service customers as that line no longer existed. In game after game one sees how a point or 1 1/2 point difference in the spread means the difference between a winning and losing bet. The NFL teams are very very close in quality overall. Personal discipline in passing on games where the number is close but not quite good enough to bet is important to long term success as well.
In the heart of the book, Gordon's handicapping system, he examines not only hard statistics, but leans heavily towards psychological motivations and factors. There is no factor one can think of to which he does not assign some value, a half point here and a half point there. He explains his starting points for the season using both letter and numerical power ratings, and how he updates each team after each game, every step of the way. The book holds seemingly nothing back.
The last half of the book follows first the Bills through the entire 2002 season, applying the factors of his system to every game they would play, whether he bet on it (and why) or not (and why not). Then he follows the full 2004 season, for each bet he made or contemplated seriously, doing the same, through the Super Bowl and a couple of proposition bets. If one were serious about learning his system, it would be worth the investment of many hours to 'replay' that system on paper, using his methods, and following how he came up with these ratings. At the end of the season he was indeed winner, though relatively modestly so.
Gordon's book is highly recommended for anyone who wants to get serious about handicapping NFL football, and stop simply throwing his money away on hunches or following the crowd.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Puts Miller's Book to Shame, June 13, 2007
This review is from: Beat The Sports Book: An Insider's Guide to Betting the NFL (Paperback)
Easily one of the BEST books I've read on sports handicapping. Dan Gordon is a legitimate pro gambler (unlike JR Miller author of "How pro gamblers beat the football point spread") who understands how to win. The part of the book called the "pro bettors toolkit" provide the reader with genuinely good advice which if followed properly should lead to more winners than losers. I wish he went into detail on how he makes a Letter Rating but that is just something that I am going to have to come up with on my own. For handicapping the NFL this is the only book you'll need but for other useful information I would suggest Donny P's book "win more lose less" and Stanford Wong's "Sharp Sports Betting". I definitely believe this book will help increase my ROI this coming NFL season.
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0 of 6 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
Descent Guide, July 29, 2007
This review is from: Beat The Sports Book: An Insider's Guide to Betting the NFL (Paperback)
This is a descent guide to handicapping the NFL. It does seem dated as most of the examples come from the 2002 season and before. However, there are some timeless tips and info for use if you are serious about betting on the NFL.
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