Beating the Business Cycle [Hardcover]

Lakshman Achuthan (Author), Anirvan Banerji (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: May 18, 2004

How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed?

The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And Beating The Business Cycle shows you how.

In Beating the Business Cycle, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy.

Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks.

Beating the Business Cycle is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels—managers, small business owners, and individuals—can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day?

Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, Beating the Business Cycle takes the guesswork out of deciding which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times—even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, Beating the Business Cycle will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Reading this thin volume on business cycles feels like riding the economic roller coaster itself. Beginning with some engaging chapters on the how and why of business cycles, it plummets into a dull trough about identifying and analyzing economic indicators and levels off with advice about using cyclical information to plan financial moves. Directors of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based think tank specializing in cyclical research, the authors stress their affiliation with this "secret weapon" of corporate America throughout the text. But given the track record of most economic prognosticators—in March 2001, for example, 95 percent of American economists thought there would not be a recession, although one had already begun—some crowing about ECRI’s success in predicting recessions and recoveries may be justified. Numbers could easily overwhelm the message here, but Achuthan and Banerji avoid a statistical tar pit. They use numbers judiciously and effectively and write in a style accessible to professionals and amateurs alike. They also exhibit a surprising sensitivity to the real consequences of business cycles. "Wile E. Coyote," they write, "after scraping himself off the canyon floor, again gives chase, heedless of the dangers ahead, oblivious to any lessons he might learn. Because he is only a cartoon character, no matter how many times he gets splattered, he never really gets hurt. But life is not a cartoon. And if you are the one to take a nose dive when the economy makes an unexpected turn, the pain is real. It may not be so easy to peel yourself off the canyon floor." What’s ultimately disappointing about the book, though, is that its promise to provide readers with an economic dashboard to navigate the financial peaks and valleys of business cycles appears to be a pumped-up advertisement for ECRI.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review

Advance Praise for BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE

“This easy-to-read book tells you how the respected ECRI calls turning points, and how you can, too.”
—Jane Bryant Quinn, Newsweek columnist

" The Economic Cycle Research Institute can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion."
--Harvard Business Review

“Shows... how far the state of the art in cycle forecasting has advanced, and how investors can profit from it.”
—Jon Markman, award-winning CNBC/MSN financial columnist

“Read this jewel of a book and enter your own personal cyclical upswing.”
—James Grant, editor, Grant's Interest Rate Observer

Acclaim for the Economic Cycle Research Institute

“The dismal scientists have a dismal record in predicting recessions… The Economic Cycle Research Institute... has been more successful.”
—The Economist

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 208 pages
• Publisher: Crown Business (May 18, 2004)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0385509537
• ISBN-13: 978-0385509534
• Product Dimensions: 5.6 x 0.8 x 9.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12.6 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (69 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #186,425 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • #70 in Books > Business & Investing > Management & Leadership > Planning & Forecasting

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

36 of 40 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Not too substantial, but they are worth listening to, June 23, 2004

By 

J. Reeves "smithwickmachine2" (Chicago, Illinois United States) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Beating the Business Cycle (Hardcover)

No doubt this book could have been an oversized pamphlet or brochure. I have tracked ECRI for a bunch of years and they have made some great calls. Ultimately this book is different from most economic tomes, not nearly as dry as most, shorter in length, but also lacking much meat. It reads as an advertisement for subscribing to their services, just enticing you enough, but not giving away any secrets. That may be for the best, as only statisticians, economists and PH.d's would really be interested in the minutiae. I hope they keep up their great calls though I was sensing some overconfidence in their abilities, and having worked in the investment business for many years, it seems humility is the best posture, no matter who you are.

30 of 33 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars When to make major household decisions, May 20, 2004

By 

Maya Kelstein (NJ) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Beating the Business Cycle (Hardcover)

This book gives guidelines on when to buy a car, home, invest in stocks, etc... Its a good handbook for such major decisions at home. It gives a long-term view, and not the quick and dirty ways to make money. And the best part is that they focus in various sectors so you can have an overall idea of the economy's performance or even real estate if that's all you are interested in!
I recommend it highly! Puts such major personal decisions in perspective.

37 of 43 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars These Guys Have a Great Record!, May 19, 2004

By 

Kirk Lindstrom (Los Altos, CA USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Beating the Business Cycle (Hardcover)

Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji have been answering questions about the business cycles and the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) leading indicators for many years at their discussion forum I moderate at Suite101.com. [http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/37993/1855-1858#message_2]

I can vouch that they called for the 2001 recession before it occurred on CNBC as well as on our very forum. They also correctly called for a slow turn in the economy which is what we have seen. Their most recent accurate prediction was for muted and delayed job growth. Many skeptics called Lakshman and Anirvan of the ECRI crazy for predicting jobs returning. Their skeptics said ECRI was wrong, that nobody can accurately predict the economy and we would fall back into a recession. Sure enough, we have now had several months of good job growth and the economy has continued to improve, at a moderate pace, just as predicted by the gentlemen from ECRI. Just today in answer to a question about a potential real estate bubble they posted:

"The Leading Home Price Index (LHPI) is part of the "economic dashboard" that we present in "Beating the Business Cycle." The latest readings show the LHPI holding up quite well. The implication is that the home prices are not about to collapse. In fact, they're more likely to continue to edge up."

Any book that gives you insight into their "black magic" is a must read for investors as well as anyone who makes decisions based on the future direction of the economy including those contemplating a home purchase!

Kirk Lindstrom
Editor "Investing - Personal Finance" at Suite101.com