Customer Reviews

Beating the Business Cycle

5 star:		(35)
4 star:		(9)
3 star:		(7)
2 star:		(4)
1 star:		(14)

 

 

No doubt this book could have been an oversized pamphlet or brochure. I have tracked ECRI for a bunch of years and they have made some great calls. Ultimately this book is different from most economic tomes, not nearly as dry as most, shorter in length, but also lacking much meat. It reads as an advertisement for subscribing to their services, just enticing you enough, but not giving away any secrets. That may be for the best, as only statisticians, economists and PH.d's would really be interested in the minutiae. I hope they keep up their great calls though I was sensing some overconfidence in their abilities, and having worked in the investment business for many years, it seems humility is the best posture, no matter who you are.

This book gives guidelines on when to buy a car, home, invest in stocks, etc... Its a good handbook for such major decisions at home. It gives a long-term view, and not the quick and dirty ways to make money. And the best part is that they focus in various sectors so you can have an overall idea of the economy's performance or even real estate if that's all you are interested in!
I recommend it highly! Puts such major personal decisions in perspective.

Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji have been answering questions about the business cycles and the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) leading indicators for many years at their discussion forum I moderate at Suite101.com. [http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/37993/1855-1858#message_2]

I can vouch that they called for the 2001 recession before it occurred on CNBC as well as on our very forum. They also correctly called for a slow turn in the economy which is what we have seen. Their most recent accurate prediction was for muted and delayed job growth. Many skeptics called Lakshman and Anirvan of the ECRI crazy for predicting jobs returning. Their skeptics said ECRI was wrong, that nobody can accurately predict the economy and we would fall back into a recession. Sure enough, we have now had several months of good job growth and the economy has continued to improve, at a moderate pace, just as predicted by the gentlemen from ECRI. Just today in answer to a question about a potential real estate bubble they posted:

"The Leading Home Price Index (LHPI) is part of the "economic dashboard" that we present in "Beating the Business Cycle." The latest readings show the LHPI holding up quite well. The implication is that the home prices are not about to collapse. In fact, they're more likely to continue to edge up."

Any book that gives you insight into their "black magic" is a must read for investors as well as anyone who makes decisions based on the future direction of the economy including those contemplating a home purchase!

Kirk Lindstrom
Editor "Investing - Personal Finance" at Suite101.com

What an excellent book. It is clear and consise and extremely well written for such tough and complex topics. The authors have done a fantastic job in making the area of cyclical forecasting fasinating. If you are an investor or someone trying to understand what is happening in an economy that seems to be inconsistent with its previous behavior, this book is worth reading.

After getting sick and tired of all the hot air that economists spew, this book gave me some hope for the dismal science. Yes the authors discuss how their calls were correct, but I see this as a necessary part of the story being told, i.e., that through the prism of good leading indexes for growth, inflation and jobs, the wild a crazy path that the economy has taken over the past few years is understandable, and more importantly, not a surprise. I'm torn as I write this review as I might be better off as an investor if others did not read this book! Still, their advice on how to use the Weekly Leading Index to make better decisions is an important gift to society.

well...i pre ordered this book and was happy to get it. i have to say first off that i've listened to mr. achuthan and mr. banerji on bloomberg radio several times, that's why i bought this. they have a very good way of explaining things which for me means in a non buisness speak. i work in real estate so im interested in the economy but not economics, if you know what i mean. that said, this book (which i have not yet read through) does several things well in the two chapters i have read.

chapter one: it give an historical overview to the theroy that the two authors espouse. i like that since i don't have the business background.

chapter eight: i really like the idea of the "economic dashboard" (this is what was discussed on the radio and in this chapter). in a nutshell it provides a way for me to understand the economic indicators and apply them to my business and also assist my clients by being able to determine pricing AND stay ahead of the curve.

i'm looking forward to reading the rest of the book, and reccomend it to anyone interested in better understanding how to assess what you see and hear in all the business reports out there.

I'm in business, but I didn't know a great deal about cycles of growth and contraction in the economy. This short book gave me a readable overview by two economists who caught the end of the 90's boom when most thought it would go on forever.

I'd recommend it to anyone who's hoping to see the next bend in the road for our economy.

The word of ¡°economy¡± has been the same as ¡°boring¡± for me.
However, I had to change my biased thought after I read this book.
First of all, there are no mathematical figures or formulas, which are usual in other economics books. Instead, the book explains about the economy and its dynamics with lots of charts, which are much easier to understand.
Second of all, the book tells how to benefit from knowing the business cycle, not only for policy makers or investors but also for Deli owner or myself as an individual. I think that this is the best part of the book that actually gives something valuable to the readers.
Finally, I felt that the business cycle theory could be applied to our lives. That is, there are nothing unchanged. Life is the same. The key is to know when it is going to change, and the book lets you know the turning point.

HIGHLY RECOMMEND!!!!
I have been watching Mr. Achuthan's and Mr. Banerji's TV appearances for some time now and their economic predictions have always been on target. They even predicted the latest recession before anyone else.

Their book turns out to be the most practical, easy to understand economics book that I have ever read!!! Full of tools that anyone can use to make sense of economic trends. Their cyclical approach can help you protect your investments by forecasting turning points in the economy. It should be a must read on everybody's list.

I'm a professional investor, but my eyes still glaze over when economists try to explain the economy using all kinds of statistical terms. This book lays it out in clear English, perhaps because their approach is different than most forecasters. The discussion of the history of cycles, and of real-life experiences using their economic forecasts are compelling, but I liked the "Leading Indicators 101" section the best because it clearly outlined how the cycle works. Now when I hear an economist tell me the economy's going up because production or employment was good last month I know to take it with a grain of salt. I also found the discussion of the Leading Home Price Index valuable for my personal affairs.