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Beating the Market, 3 Months at a Time: A Proven Investing Plan Everyone Can Use
 
 
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Beating the Market, 3 Months at a Time: A Proven Investing Plan Everyone Can Use [Hardcover]

Gerald Appel (Author), Marvin Appel (Author)
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)

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Book Description

0136130895 978-0136130895 January 27, 2008 1

“The authors have created a simple, systematic plan that gives investors a long-term edge with minimal effort and reduced risk. They’ve done all the work for you, and it’s rewarding and easy to follow.”

–Bob Kargenian, President, TABR Capital Management

 

“There are diamonds in them thar hills’ — but to find investment grade diamonds it pays to have experienced guides. Gerald and Marvin Appel provide a simple but powerful plan for the often complex world of investment opportunities.”

–Dr. Alexander Elder, Author of Come Into My Trading Room and Trading for a Living

 

A Complete Roadmap for Investing Like a Pro That Requires Only 1 Hour Every 3 Months

 

  • The easy way to build a winning portfolio–and keep winning
  • Reduce risk, increase growth, and protect wealth even in tough, volatile markets
  • Absolutely NO background in math or finance necessary!

 

You can do better!

 

You don’t have to settle for “generic” investment performance, and you needn’t delegate your decision-making to expensive investment managers. This book shows how you can quickly and easily build your optimal global portfolio–and then keep it optimized, in just one hour every three months.

 

Top investment managers Gerald and Marvin Appel provide specific recommendations and simple selection techniques that any investor can use–even novices.

 

The Appels’ approach is remarkably simple and requires only one hour of your time every 3 months, but don’t let that fool you: it draws on state-of-the-art strategies currently being used that really work.

 

www.systemsandforecasts.com

www.appelasset.com

www.signalert.com

 

If you know what to do, active investing can yield far better returns than “buy-and-hold” investing. But conventional approaches to active investing can be highly complex and time-consuming. Finally, there’s a proven, easy-to-use approach: one that’s simple enough for novices, quick enough for anyone, requires no background in math–and works!

 

Gerald and Marvin Appel show you how to identify, and give you specific recommendations for, the best mutual funds, ETFs, bond funds, and international funds. They do not stop there. They demonstrate how you can quickly and easily evaluate each investment’s performance every 3 months, and how to make adjustments to continually optimize the performance of your portfolio.

 

Using their easy to implement strategies, you can achieve better capital growth while reducing risk; profit from new opportunities at home and abroad; make the most of innovative investment vehicles; and protect your assets even in the toughest markets.

 

Improving rates of return while you also reduce risk

Setting intelligent investment targets and implementing strategies to meet them

 

Identifying today’s most profitable market sectors…

…and those that will continue to lead

 

Short-term vs. long-term bonds, mature vs. emerging markets

What to choose now, and when to switch


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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

    Dr. Marvin Appel is CEO of Appel Asset Management Corporation and Vice President of Signalert Corporation, Registered Investment Advisors in Great Neck, New York, which together manage more than $300 million for individual clients. He also edits the highly acclaimed investment newsletter, Systems and Forecasts, and has authored Investing with Exchange Traded Funds Made Easy (FT Press, 2006).

    He has been featured on CNNfn, CNBC, CBS Marketwatch.com, and Forbes.com, and has presented at conferences ranging from the World Series of Exchange Traded Funds to the American Association of Individual Investors. The New York State Legislature has invited Dr. Appel to present his economic and investment outlook.

 

    Gerald Appel is a world famous author and lecturer. A frequent guest on television and radio, he has appeared on Wall Street Week with Louis Ruykeyser and his articles and/or articles about him have appeared in Money Magazine, Barron’s, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, Stocks Futures and Options Magazine, Wealth Magazine, the New York Times, Forbes, Kiplinger’s Magazine, and elsewhere. He is the founder of Signalert Corporation, an investment advisory firm that manages more than $300 million in client assets and is the author of numerous books and articles regarding investment strategies, including Technical Analysis: Power Tools for the Active Investor (Financial Times Prentice Hall, 2005).

 

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

Introduction

Introduction

"Financial Savvy" How To Invest Smart So You Will Have the Money You Need When You Need It

By Gerald Appel and Dr. Marvin Appel

Articles and discussions of financial and investment planning generally focus on the accumulation of assets for the later stages of life—to provide for the maintenance of standards of living, medical needs, creation of estates, and vacations.

Each period of life carries with it special financial requirements associated with that particular stage. In certain ways, young adults require less capital than older adults. Medical expenses tend to be considerably lower. Younger people are more capable of traveling "on the cheap," in hostels, camping, and in less luxurious and/or group accommodations. They are usually more able to share apartments, to live in relatively small quarters.

On the other hand, younger people also often find themselves in situations that call for unusually large expenditures. New businesses and professional practices require start-up capital. Living accommodations have become particularly expensive in major cities across America. Funds may be needed to pay off college loans, perhaps to finance graduate school and other forms of advanced education. Certain professions, such as medicine, require long training periods, which may coincide with marriage and even with parenthood.

The age period between, perhaps, 33–45 is usually a period of increasing professional accomplishment and rising income. It is also a period of sharply rising expenses to meet the needs of growing families, which may require larger homes, multiple automobiles, summer camp, family vacations, perhaps private school, payment for special child events, and a whole multitude of expenses that families assume to be certain that their children have what other children have.

This is also the period during which families attempt to set aside the money needed to finance college, weddings, and other expenses incurred by children as they move through adolescence into young adulthood.

Although investment programs are best initiated as early in life as possible, it is not surprising that for many couples and individuals, serious capital accumulation tends to start only after the children, if any, have left the house. Fortunately, for most people, peak earnings often take place at this time. Hopefully, the years between middle age and retirement prove sufficient for the accumulation of capital needed later on.

Financial Planning and Sharp Investing Are Not Just for the Older Folk...

What is the point of all this discussion, which really, if we think about it, contains few surprises?

Well, you can work hard throughout your life to make the money you need to keep up with life's changing needs. Or, you can try to plan and carry through your affairs so that you accumulate an amount of money along the way that, by savvy, active investing, you can make work for you!

Which Is Where This Book Comes In...

It is, of course, possible to hand over your assets to a financial planner or to a money manager or to a stock broker (in recent years, referred to as an investment consultant) or to a mutual fund family, to step aside, and to hope for the best. Many managers have had excellent long-term performance records, and some will even make a reasonably serious attempt to match the portfolios they create for you to your own personal life situation, risk tolerances, and temperament.

Why and How to Become a Self-Sufficient Investor

However, although there are definite potential benefits that can accrue from retaining professional managers, there are also some definite disadvantages. For one, the use of professional managers usually involves additional expenses for your investment portfolio— typical management fees ranging between 1–2% of assets per annum, depending upon the size of your account. Hedge funds generally charge much higher management fees.

In many cases, professional money managers bring with them potential conflicts of interest in one form or another. Insurance agents, mutual fund managers, and brokerage house personnel work for and are paid by their companies whose interests often take precedence over the interests of customers. For example, financial advisors and/or brokerage house personnel often receive commission income paid by mutual funds to them for the products they recommend and sell, as well as management or custodian fees from client customers for as long as accounts stay open. It can be readily understood that such commissions are likely to impact the recommendations made by such advisors, particularly when alternative investment choices might lie with mutual funds that pay no commissions whatsoever to salespeople.

Investment representatives, brokers, or managers associated with large brokerage houses, mutual funds, banks, or other financial institutions may or may not have the ability to distinguish between "safe" market periods and unsafe periods. They may or may not even have the discretion within their firms to advise clients regarding market conditions. Would it really be possible for an employee of a large brokerage house to advise his clients to liquidate equity positions and to move totally or near totally into cash? Could and would any major brokerage house urge its clientele as a group to sharply reduce their stock holdings? Could or would a major mutual fund family urge shareholders to redeem shares of its mutual funds because of negative market prospects?

Not very likely. Financial institutions rarely emphasize selling strategies. Wall Street emphasizes buying rather than selling recommendations. (It is not necessarily generally understood, but on Wall Street, when investment analysts become negative on a particular company, they do not downgrade its rating from "buy" to "sell" but rather from "buy" to "hold," which sounds like an entirely different opinion unless you are familiar with the code.)

You might just try to tune into one or the other of the television channels that specialize in tracking the stock market. Compare the number of times guests are asked to suggest stocks to sell compared to the number of times that they are asked to suggest stocks to buy.

Neither last nor least, brokerage houses, wealth managers, asset managers, and financial planners are most likely to provide careful supervision to "wealth assets," usually thought of as clients who have at least one million dollars worth of assets in account. The odds are much less that clients with relatively small amounts of assets—small to wealth managers, that is, but significant to these clients—will receive careful supervision, monitoring, and general attention.

To Sum Up the Alternatives

The hiring of professional investment managers may secure for investors useful general financial planning assistance, useful professional investment advice, and at least a modicum of personalized supervision of investment assets.

That said, professional investment advice is often tainted by conflicts of interest, well meaning but not necessarily superior investment guidance, and possibly by some neglect of your own particular individual investment portfolios.

In any event, if you ultimately choose to delegate the task of managing your investments to others, choose your managers with care, taking care to verify their actual long-term performance with other accounts, and particularly their ability to protect assets during poor as well as favorable general stock market and economic climates. At the very least, learn enough to be able to evaluate the strategies that are being employed on your behalf.

What You Will Learn from This Work

You may or may not have the desire or time to "do it all yourself." However, we have designed this book to provide you with specific, well-researched tools that you may well employ in self-directed investment programs to grow your assets and to build a way of life that will benefit you and yours for possibly decades to ...


Product Details

  • Hardcover: 240 pages
  • Publisher: FT Press; 1 edition (January 27, 2008)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0136130895
  • ISBN-13: 978-0136130895
  • Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.3 x 0.9 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #258,729 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

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Average Customer Review
3.9 out of 5 stars (8 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
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13 of 14 people found the following review helpful:
2.0 out of 5 stars Interesting strategy, but a disappointing book, August 29, 2008
By 
This review is from: Beating the Market, 3 Months at a Time: A Proven Investing Plan Everyone Can Use (Hardcover)
This book suffers from two problems. First, it seems like a slimmed-down version of author Gerald Appel's "Opportunity Investing," which also discussed the use of a momentum-rotation strategy to improve absolute returns and reduce portfolio drawdown. The big difference here is that the Appels emphasize the use of ETFs for implementing their strategy.

Second, there is a lot of basic material whose purpose is to persuade the reader that they need to invest in equity markets. You see this too often in books on investing, where the authors assume that the reader need first be persuaded to invest and then to invest according to the author's strategy. I would wager that most people who pick up books on investing need no such convincing: it's preaching to the choir.

That said, the momentum-rotation strategy is an interesting concept, elegant and, in its ETF incarnation, easy to use. It is worth bearing in mind, though, that trading in and out of ETFs as might be necessary under this strategy would incur a significant tax and cost liability that the strategy would have to hurdle if it was to outperform as simple buy-and-hold plan. Alas, transaction costs and taxes do not factor into the Appels' analysis.

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16 of 18 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars Moderately interesting, October 6, 2008
This review is from: Beating the Market, 3 Months at a Time: A Proven Investing Plan Everyone Can Use (Hardcover)
I got a couple of useful ideas from this book, but overall I was disappointed. The most useful ideas are (1) market sectors that outperform over one three-month period are more likely to outperform over the next three-month period, and (2) how to use ETFs to implement a timing-rotation strategy based on the first idea. The disappointments: (1) This is a thin book: 218 pages with large print. Take away the notes and index and it's 196 pages. (2) There seemed to be some internal conflict in just how to use allocations to create proper portfolios. After a while, I was not sure just what was being recommended. If I got it right, four different investment strategies ended up being recommended, and then blends of those were discussed. I got confused. Partly this may be the result of the book having two authors, and they apparently wrote different chapters independently. I'm not sure everything got reconciled. (3) The end of the book wandered into retirement topics, healthcare costs, social security...in other words, non-investing topics. This was unnecessary, annoying, and one wonders whether it was done because they needed more pages.
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8 of 8 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars Book Review from the Aleph Blog, January 23, 2010
By 
David Merkel "Aleph Blog" (Ellicott City, MD United States) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   
This review is from: Beating the Market, 3 Months at a Time: A Proven Investing Plan Everyone Can Use (Hardcover)
A word before I start: I'm averaging two book review requests a month at present. I tell the PR people that I don't guarantee a review (though I have reviewed them all so far), or even a favorable review. They send the books anyway.

Included in every book is a 2-6 page summary of what a reviewer would want to know, so he can easily write a review. Catchy bits, crunchy quotes, outlines...

I don't read those. I read or skim the book. If I skim the book, I note that in my review. Typically, I only skim a book when it is a topic that I know cold. Otherwise I read, and give you my unvarnished opinion. I'm not in the book selling business... I'm here to help investors. If you buy a few books (or anything else) through my Amazon links, that's nice. Thanks for the tip. I hope you gain insight from me worth far more.

If I can keep you from buying a bad book, then I've done something useful for you. I have more than enough good books for readers to buy. Plus, I review older books that no one will push. I hope eventually to get all of my favorites written up for readers.

Enough about my review process; on with the review:

When the PR guy sent me the title of the book, I thought, "Oh, no. Another investing formula book. I probably won't like it." Well, I liked it, but with some reservations.

The authors are a father and son -- Gerard Appel and Marvin Appel, Ph. D. They manage over $300 million of assets together. The father has written a bunch of books on technical analysis, and the son has written a book on ETFs.

Well, it is an investing formula book... it has a simple method for raising returns and reducing risks that has worked in the past. The ideas are simple enough that an investor could apply them in one hour or so every three months. I won't give you the whole formula, because it wouldn't be fair to the authors. The ideas, if spun down to their core, would fill up one long blog post of mine. But you would lose a lot of the explanations and graphs which are helpful to less experienced readers. The book is well-written, and I found it a breezy read at ~200 pages.

I will summarize the approach, though. They use a positive momentum strategy on three asset classes -- domestic equities, international equities, and high yield bonds, and a buy-and-hold strategy on investment grade bonds. They apply these strategies to open- and closed-end mutual funds and ETFs. They then give you a weighting for the four asset classes to create a balanced portfolio that is close to what I would consider a reasonable allocation for a middle aged person.

Their backtests show that their balanced portfolio earned more than the S&P 500 from 1979-2007, with less risk, measured by maximum drawdown. Okay, so the formula works in reverse. What do we have to commend/discredit the formula from what I know tend to happen when formulas get applied to real markets?

Commend

* Momentum effects do tend to persist across equity styles.
* Momentum effects do tend to persist across international regional equity returns.
* Momentum effects do tend to persist on high yield returns in the short run.
* The investment grade buy-and-hold bond strategy is a reasonable one, if a bit quirky.
* Keeps investment expenses low.
* Gives you some more advanced strategies as well as simple ones.
* The last two chapters are there to motivate you to save, because they suggest the US Government won't have the money they promised to pay you when you are old. (At least not in terms of current purchasing power...)

Discredit

* The time period of the backtest was unique 3/31/1979-3/31/2007. There are unique factors to that era: The beginning of that period had high interest rates, and low equity valuations. Interest rates fell over the period, and equity valuations rose. International investing was particularly profitable over the same period... no telling whether that will persist into the future.
* I could not tie back the numbers from their domestic equity and international equity strategies in the asset allocation portfolio to their individual component strategies.
* I suspect that might be because though the indexes existed over their test period, tradeable index funds may not have existed, so in the individual strategy components they might be done over shorter time horizons, and then used indexes for the backtest. This is just a hypothesis of mine, and it doesn't destroy their overall thesis -- just the degree that it outperforms in the past.
* They occasionally recommend fund managers, most of whom I think are good, but funds change over time, so I would be careful about being married to a fund just because it did well in the past.
* If style factors or international regional return factors get choppy, this would underperform. I don't think that is likely, investors chase past performance, so momentum works in the short run.
* Though you only act four times a year, that's enough to generate a lot of taxable events if you are not doing this in a tax-sheltered account.
* It looks like they reorganized the book at the end, because the one footnote for Chapter 9 references Chapter 10, when it really means chapter 8.

The Verdict

I think their strategy works, given what I know about momentum strategies. I don't think it will work as relatively well in the future as in the past for 3 reasons:

* There is more momentum money in the market now than in the past... momentum strategies should still work but not to the same degree.
* International investing is more common than in the past... the payoff from it should be less. There aren't that many more areas of the world to go capitalist remaining, and who knows? We could hit a new era of socialism abroad, or even in the US.
* Interest rates are low today, and equity valuations are not low.

Who might this book be good for? Someone who only invests in mutual funds, and wants to try to get a little more juice out of them. The rules on managing the portfolio are simple enough that they could be done in an hour or two once every three months. Just do it in a tax-sheltered account, and be aware that if too many people adopt momentum strategies (not likely), this could underperform.
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Inside This Book (learn more)
Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
index fund, emerging market index, floating rate funds, high yield bond funds, beating the market, bond market conditions, worst drawdown, bond ladder, emerging market stocks, high yield funds, hypothetical growth, bank loan funds, high yield bond market, prior quarter, high yield bonds
Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
United States, Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, First Eagle Global, Yahoo Finance, Tweedy Browne Global Value, Emerging Markets Index, Morgan Stanley High Yield, Credit Index, Definitive Portfolio, New World Fund, Global Thematic, Lord Abbett Bond Debenture, Pimco Total Return, Mutual Fund Expert, Far East, Western Europe, Domestic Equity Strategy, Dryden High Yield, Japan Index, Annual Returns, New York City, Northeast Investors Trust, South Korea
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