Customer Reviews

The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping: Leading Ideas & Methods

5 star:		(8)
4 star:		(2)
3 star:		(0)
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The beauty of James Quinn's updated anthology is not any one revelation that he brings to the table, but that he's synthesized so many voices and give you so many more angles to consider. Those of you who play regularly know how easy it is to identify the obvious chalk-- and how hard it is to get past the two or three "best on paper" types to get to live, mid-priced overlays. You know, the horses that are the difference between a minus day and a wildly profitable day.

In addition, the fact that he has brought so many voices together on money management-- the topic I see the least amount of literature on-- alone makes this worthwhile.

This isn't the type of book I'd toss to a novice, but it will make the intermediate player much more flexible and creative.

James Quinn's first "The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping" was a digest of the current theories, ideas and trends which had been written by the great handicappers and creative minds of our beloved game. Mr. Quinn takes us to another level in this edition. Not only has he added some new material by new authors, but he has went back over the original material and explains how those theories and methods have evolved to meet our changing racing environment. I was captivated by the anthology and couldn't put the book down until I had thoroughly read every chapter twice. Since I have not only Mr Quinn's earlier edition, but also each book by each author he discusses, I recommend this book as a worthy addition to your handicapping library.

Drawing from so many experts in the field and publishing their original material makes for a great work. Of the dozen or so handicapping volumes I have, this is the one I refer to most often because every each aspect from handicapping factors to money management and tote watching is covered by a true expert in that field. What I discovered after reading this is that I started looking for volumes by the writers herein that contributed chapters of interest. It has introduced me to a lot of guys I would never have found without this book.

I would say this book does not teach you leading handicapping ideas and methods in depth enough. However, this book is a good gateway or router to different handicapping ideas and methods. If one would like to explore and learn different ideas and methods in depth, this book is a very good stepping-stone.

I have read many books on handicapping but can still find many ideas in this book which are new to me. As a starting point, I will surely re-read these new ideas in this book again and continue with my exploration.

This book is outstanding, well written, insightful, and pulls together so many different angles on handicapping. The only problem is trying to digest all that is here. Excellent work.

I have read the first edition of this title over and over and the latest version is only an improvement on a fine work. I agree that a lot of the information provided in the chapters in not in great depth, but it's difficult to take a 200 page book and condense it into a few pages. Quinn has done a great job of doing just that. And since the author provides information on the various sources, it gives the reader the opportunity to reach out to those sources if they have interest in the topic. This is definitely a great addition to any handicapper's library. I have had the opportunity to meet Quinn and he is just as wonderful a person as he is an author.

This book is an almost encylocpedic digest of current theories of thoroughbred handicapping. None are covered in such detail that you can run off and start making money at the track, but each points you to a source for more comprehensive information on the theory that interests you.

If you are willing to ignore books on "handicapping made easy," this book is probably among the best starting points for the novice. It explores a variety of approaches, leaving you to select what you like, and follow a path toward mastery.

I really enjoyed this book because it made me think about racing in many different ways and introduced me to some very interesting racing guru's. I now know which authors books to buy who think along the same lines as I do. Highly recommended.

I doubt this book will help you win more money at the track. With that in mind, I suppose it can be a nice addition for those wanting to add to their reading library. There are spots (sections and paragraphs) that are informing and insightful; some even humorous. There are story tellers and handicapping opinions. Of all the authors, certainly one of them should be able to take a bold stand and say "follow this outline and you will put real money into your wallet/purse". That was the type of knowledge I was hoping to gain. It wasn't there. My handicapping skills probably will not improve much having read this. However I did gain information about racing history and nostalgia, as well as extend my overall knowledgge of the sport. Mr. Quinn has put better on bookshelves.

... I learned of Cramer from James Quinn's masterpiece, The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping. This is by far the best book for those new to Handicapping as it provides a survey of the literature. That notwithstanding, however, Chapter 14 of said book is one of the worst I have read. After advocating for Optimal Betting via the Kelly Criterion in Chapter 2, Quinn seems to indicate that longer odds should have higher bets. While there is a more devastating reason that this is absolutely false, even the criterion he advocates teaches the exact opposite. Assuming a flat bet ROI of 10%, the percent of capital wagered via the Kelly Criterion is, for example, 10% on a 1:1 shot while it is 0.5% on a 20:1 shot.

Unfortunately for bettors, the Kelley Criterion is not usually the limiting factor for determining bet size, at least not for bettors with any appreciable bankroll. The tricky thing about pari-mutuel betting is that it allows the greedy gambler to destroy the overlay he meant to exploit. Placing a large bet on a long shot will significantly alter the odds.

The math is somewhat complicated and it is out of scope for me to present it here. The profit function is the bet size times the expectation value. The expectation value is the probability of winning times the odds being offered. The odds being offered are a function of the total wager pool, the wager pool on the horse in question, and the house cut. Two of these are a function of the bet size. Only by setting the derivative of the profit function to zero can the maxima of the profit function be determined.

Keep in mind too, that this can be done with the best of intentions but that the odds are still subject to change after you place your wager. Keep in mind also that the expectation values that feed into the Kelly Criterion optimal bet size are also a function of wager size. These two functions (profit function and optimum bet) can be plotted against bet size. There are generally four possibilities. There is no profitable bet, the Kelly Criterion dictates, the Profit Function Dictates, or the two functions intersect. In the event where a profitable bet is possible, I advocate 50 - 100% of the lesser of the three (the Kelly Optimum, the Intersection, or the Profit Function Maximum).

From what I have read in the handicapping literature, this is my new contribution (I think, I haven't stumbled across it yet). Note that the profit function derivative method can also be applied to Dr. Z's system for place and show betting on favorites.