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Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint: Crushed by Credit and Deceived by Debt — How to Revive the Global Economy Hardcover – November 3, 2011

3.9 out of 5 stars 20 customer reviews

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Editorial Reviews

From the Back Cover

During the Great Depression, legendary British economist John Maynard Keynes advocated using government money to fill the economic void until consumer spending and business investment recovered. But what happens when governments can’t do that anymore? That’s “The Keynesian Endpoint”: when the money runs out before the economy has been rescued, and investors refuse to accept any more sovereign debt.

 

That’s where we are. In the United States and worldwide, debt-fueled spending programs devised to cure the global financial crisis have morphed into poison. Exhausted national balance sheets have left policy makers with few viable options to bolster economic growth, pointing leaders and citizens toward brutal choices that were previously unimaginable.

 

In Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint , PIMCO Executive Vice President, portfolio manager, and market strategist Tony Crescenzi illuminates the frightening new world we now inhabit. Crescenzi dissects each scenario swirling around the mounting global debt crisis and reveals its profound implications for governments, investors, and the global economy.

 

Surviving the world’s greatest hangover

Welcome to the morning after America’s 30-year consumption binge

 

The dangerous use of fiscal illusions by politicians

How politicians hoodwinked the public and ballooned our debts

 

The investment implications of the Keynesian Endpoint

How to keep your portfolio afloat while other investors flounder

 

From endpoint to new beginning

How the Endpoint is leading to the transformation of a century


About the Author

Tony Crescenzi is Executive Vice President, Market Strategist, and Portfolio Manager for PIMCO, a leading global investment management firm. He was previously Chief Bond Market Strategist at Miller Tabak, where he worked for 23 years.

 

Crescenzi appears regularly on CNBC and Bloomberg, has guest-hosted Squawk Box, and has taught at Baruch College’s executive MBA program for 10 years. He has 28 years of investment experience and holds an MBA from St. John’s University and an undergraduate degree from the City University of New York.

 

His books include Investing from the Top Down, the recent Fourth Edition of Marcia Stigum’s 1,200-page classic The Money Market, and The Strategic Bond Investor, Second Edition.

 

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 304 pages
  • Publisher: FT Press; 1 edition (November 3, 2011)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0132595214
  • ISBN-13: 978-0132595216
  • Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 1 x 9.3 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (20 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,658,059 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

By Charles Montgomery VINE VOICE on November 22, 2011
Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
This is a well written book. It begins by telling us laypeople just what the Keynesian Endpoint is and then how we (or any nation) reached this point in our economic history. Then he tells us the ramifications of having reached this KEP and finally some ways individuals can protect themselves from the position in which we have found ourselves. The author seems to be writing from an Austrian school viewpoint and insightfully lays out the causes of our present economic problems and goes further to address some ways out.

Keynes argued essentially that in times of economic downturn that government spending money obtained by borrowing would cause a multiplier effect on the economy thus pulling it out of recession.
Crescenzi sets forth to show us what has happened to our economy and why the Keynes theories won't/ can't work in the future. First he shows how we reach the KEP where there is no longer money on our balance sheets to borrow and spend.
Chapters 2-8 tell us how we have gotten ourselves into this mess at the KEP through such things as Consumption Binging, Public Employee Unions with their profligate demands and excess power, Political dishonesty, Ponzi Schemes like QE I and QEII, and finally Age Warfare and as he calls it Gerontocracy.
Chapter 8 attempts to tell why with all of us having much more disposable income than our parents we all feel like we don't have enough and thus the necessity for govt. to hide the costs of inter-generational debts.

The last 2 chapters give us some pointers on how to deal with our present situation before the worst things like 1979 interest rates or post WWi German inflation happen.
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Format: Hardcover
Tony Crescenzi's Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint is written exceptionally well, with engaging and elegant prose not usually found in books dealing with serious subject matter. His writing style enables readers to understand the very complex and profound implications of the sovereign debt crisis. The book provides a wealth of information and insight about how the developed world got into its current situation, doing so in ways that will surprise many readers because of its focus beyond the world of finance and into the world of behavioral economics. For example, Crescenzi focuses on the many psychological and sociological forces that compel people and nations to spend and borrow money. These are powerful influences not to be overlooked yet they often are. There is also an important chapter and discussions throughout the book on the investment implications of the current situation, and a very important insight on the role that demographics (in particular "Gerontocracy" a chapter in Crescenzi's book) are playing in the current drama.

Crescenzi provides important perspective on the role that government should play in society. In particular, Crescenzi shows how government spending went amok and how politicians abused basic Keynesian principles for self-aggrandizement, to forward their own agendas. Crescenzi illuminates this unfortunate misuse of power and elegantly lays out a prescription for the role of government in society. One way he does this is by contrasting the suffering of people during the Great Depression to the "suffering" that many in Europe are protesting against, amid today's era of deleveraging.
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"In many countries, there will be little or no integration between the Keynesian and Austrian schools of thinking because the Keynesian camp will be intransigent. The implementation of austerity measures in these countries will be challenging and painful. For years these countries made social promises to their citizens that have become too burdensome to keep. Yet the citizens of these nations will be unwilling to wean themselves from the familiar and comforting hand of government for the free market's invisible hand.

As a result, these countries will see their economies languish because the Keynesian Endpoint means it will be impossible for them to raise money to support their social contracts and efforts to use debt to stimulate economic activity. In these cases, social unrest, income inequality, currency devaluations, debt restructurings, high unemployment, accelerated inflation, high real interest rates, and low investment returns will be key features. In short, the standard of living in these countries will decline." page_28
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Like so many writers, Crescenzi blames Keynes' ideas for political failure. He says that the magic elixir of Keynes morphed into poison and that the Keynesian revolution eschewed prudence. That's certainly true of Keynesian politicians. Actually Keynes never advocated the permanent deficits or inflation that has caused the current global credit crisis. Nonetheless, if we ignore the interpretation of Keynes, the book is very informative on a wide range of economic and political ideas. In explaining Keynesian economics he shows that if MPC is close to 100% the result is a large money multiplier. [He doesn't go into subtraction for pork loading so prevalent in today's government spending bills.] Today's government debt is based on an artificial demand for government bonds while public savings rate is going more and more negative.

In analysis of world economic conditions, it's very informative on history and current conditions concerning the euro. There is a trilemma in objectives of formation of the EU/EZ involving monetary policy independence, stable exchange ratio and free flow of capital. The contention that the PIIGS debt crisis can spread to the rest of the world is not made clear.
He says that it is no longer possible to finance world debt. An important factor is China being serious about capital formation. Crescenzi cites the strange phenomenon of emerging countries becoming creditors. In explaining the global sovereign debt dilemma he shows that we are past the point of no return where growth can pay for debt service, leaving default only remaining way to reduce debt/ GDP ratio. We must [continue to] allow currency to depreciate. We need R&D and a stop to QE.
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