Big Dragon: China's Future, What It Means For Business, the Economy, and the Global Order [Hardcover]

Daniel Burstein (Author), Arne De Keijzer (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: March 31, 1998

No country poses as significant a set of challenges to America's business and political agenda as China. A few years ago, political pundits naively envisioned China evolving into a liberal, democratic society with limitless potential for American companies. Now the pendulum has swung in the other direction-- toward the prospect of a new cold war, with uncertainty and fear evocative of the old "yellow peril" dominating the debate over China's emergence as a new world power.

In "Big Dragon", Dan Burstein, the bestselling author of "Yen!", joins with China specialist Arne de Keijzer to offer the first comprehensive look at China and its future in the new post-Deng Xiaoping era. "Big Dragon" offers a practical blueprint for business people, policy makers, and concerned citizens alike as they contemplate new strategies for dealing with China-- a nation that will be either America's partner or its adversary in the global order of the future. Neither Pollyannaish nor hawkish, the authors have a powerful and perceptive grasp of the issues involved. They have been traveling to China, doing business in China, and writing about China since the early seventies. "Big Dragon" is based on their extensive research and firsthand encounters with Chinese leaders (including the late Deng Xiaoping), as well as the thinkers and entrepreneurs who are creating the new Chinese economic system.

Leading American companies such as Boeing, Motorola, General Electric, Westinghouse, General Motors, AT&T, Coca-Cola, and Microsoft see China as a critical market for their global growth strategies. Indeed, the China market is so large and growing so fast that no U.S. company can ignore it. As U.S. based companies compete with European, Japanese, and other Asian companies in the twenty-first century, their China strategies may well be a key factor determining their overall success or failure.

The authors articulate a fresh, intelligent, and innovative business and political strategy for the United States, rooted in realistic assessments of where China is coming from and where it is headed. "Big Dragon" is the most ambitious book yet to delve into China's future and introduce readers to the myriad ways in which American business, politics, and lifestyles will be affected by China's rise in the twenty-first century. It provides a hardheaded, realistic, and ultimately positive vision of how China's political landscape will change over the next twenty-five years-- and how the United States can change with it.

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

China by the year 2030 will be not only the world's most populous nation, but also the world's largest economy, a superpower in every sense of the word. Its emergence as "the biggest player in the history of man," in the words of former Singapore prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, will shift the global balance of wealth and power in the next millennium. Big Dragon draws a nuanced portrait of the historic changes now underway in China and drafts a practical blueprint for maintaining constructive Sino-American relations. The book is must reading for anyone concerned with international business, finance, or politics. That should include almost everyone.

Coauthors Daniel Burstein and Arne de Keijzer show a deep understanding of China's rich culture and manifold complexities as a society. Burstein is an investment banker who has written four other books on global economic issues, including Yen!, on the Japanese economy. Arne de Keijzer consults with companies doing business in China and is the author of three guides to the country, including China: Business Strategies for the '90s.

The authors analyze both the challenges and the opportunities posed by China in the next century. Without airbrushing China's authoritarian government, geopolitical ambitions, or abysmal record on human rights, Big Dragon seeks to counter the views of some in the U.S. who conclude that China is the enemy. Burstein and de Keijzer believe China is unlikely to become militarily aggressive, though the status of Taiwan involves the potential for conflict. They believe China will not disintegrate like the Soviet Union, though regions will continue to struggle with Beijing for greater autonomy, perhaps bringing about a degree of federalism. Big Dragon profiles many individual Chinese entrepreneurs and others who are bringing a new China into being. From the transformations the Chinese have already wrought, the authors believe that China's journey down the path toward a pluralistic economy and even a form of democracy is irreversible.

If so, the best policy for the U.S. and other powers is what the authors call "dynamic engagement" with China. They favor continued, normal trade as the only means to persuade China to do better on human rights and in other areas of conflict, such as intellectual piracy. They favor integrating China into the world economy through membership in the World Trade Organization and other international bodies. And they favor a broad expansion of U.S.-China exchange programs involving students, elected officials, and community leaders.

Big Dragon is a useful antidote to the cartoon versions of China proffered in some books and in many Western news media. Burstein and de Keijzer communicate a sense of China's complex diversity. Like any nation--more so, because of its size--China is full of contradictions. Putting them in perspective and gaining a better sense of where they may lead will be hugely important in understanding the shape of the world to come. Big Dragon is an excellent guide. --Barry Mitzman

From Publishers Weekly

Diametrically opposing U.S. critics of China who recommend a strategy of isolation and containment, the authors want America to expand its trade and investment with the country as well as to offer technical support and intergovernmental exchanges to foster economic interdependence. For a start, they suggest that President Clinton should visit Beijing. This policy of "dynamic engagement," they contend, will ultimately benefit both the U.S. and China, which they expect will become the world's largest economy and the biggest manufacturer in the decades ahead. Investment banker Burstein (Yen!) and De Keijzer, a consultant to U.S. firms doing business in China, argue that the People's Republic?much more open and modernized now than in the 1970s, when it was in the throes of Mao's Cultural Revolution?has made dramatic progress on many fronts by allowing greater freedom of expression, unshackling a centralized economy and holding contested elections for thousands of local posts. They emphatically dispute those who view China as expansionist and inherently adversarial toward America. Clear writing, along with the authors' admission of assumptions and biases, makes this polemic a noteworthy contribution to the China debate.
Copyright 1998 Reed Business Information, Inc.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 416 pages
• Publisher: Simon & Schuster; 1st edition (March 31, 1998)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 068480316X
• ISBN-13: 978-0684803166
• Product Dimensions: 9.5 x 6.4 x 1.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #5,616,725 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

6 of 7 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Excellent review of the present and probable future of China, July 12, 2000

By 

David D. Yang (Alexandria, VA, United States) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Big Dragon: The Future of China: WHAT IT MEANS FOR BUSINESS, THE ECONOMY, AND THE GLOBAL ORDER (Paperback)

This book does what it sets out to do admirably well, although the reaction of certain readers makes it clear that its approach is lacking in certain areas.

This book is a comprehensive but well-focused review of the current political and economic system of China, recent trends in US-China relationship, and the emerging currents in Chinese society that will shape the country in the next quarter century. The book is written primarily from a business perspective, focusing on China's economic and market potentials (forecasted to match the US in total GDP by the 2020's though still much poorer in per capita terms) and the impact of political developments on the business environment. For those readers not yet familiar with contemporary China, this book is a remarkably well-informed primer. But even old China-hands will find the authors' detailed discussion of the probable future of China (some 100 pages are devoted to the section titled "Geomancing the Dragon") thought-provoking even if their own conclusions may vary.

However, the authors sought to instruct as well as inform. And their recommendations for improving US-China relationship - although perfectly sensible - may not persuade the human rights hawks in the US, who may consider arguments on strictly mercantilist terms immoral. But it's no accident that most of those intimately familiar with China are "pro-China" in the sense defined by a previous reviewer. China has plenty of human rights problems, but it has also come a remarkably long way in a amazingly short time. Progress cannot be measured without the context of history, and it's this area that did not receive sufficient treatment. The general normalcy of China today is an accomplishment that cannot be adequately appreciated without greater understanding of 20th century Chinese history.

There are issues of fundamental human rights and there are issues of political organization. While one is certainly entitled to avidly avocate the political system of his or her choice, one should refrain from waging moral crusades when we are all equally human and fallible.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Slightly old but so far on track look of China's future, June 10, 2005

By 

C. D. Fleming - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Big Dragon: The Future of China: WHAT IT MEANS FOR BUSINESS, THE ECONOMY, AND THE GLOBAL ORDER (Paperback)

A very dry but ultimately absorbing book attempting to describe China's place in Asia, the world and in particular its relationship to America and also then the implications of China's economy continuing to grow at a fast rate for the next 20-30 years.

It is now nearly 8 years old since this was first published and so reading it is a little bit like reading old newspapers but the age of the book does not make it irrelevant; we can compare their projections with reality and also see how much has actually changed in terms of what the current state of the relationship between America and China is, what the main concerns are around the world with a rising China and how well the Chinese economy continues to perform.

The authors are obviously experts in China and this is shown in that impressively most of their predictions seem on track. For example, Hong Kong is still relatively a independent territory but as they pointed out its economic importance has diminished in favour of Shanghai - this was sort of predicted by the authors. Also, the so called bankrupt and in dire need of overhaul State owned enterprises are still up and running, still apparently unprofitable and have not (despite some commentators - see strator) collapsed bringing the whole country with them. And finally, the issue de jour of late 90s of the Asian Financial meltdown (when the book was written) has passed and the region has recovered, without bringing the whole continent into the same turmoil seen nations of the old USSR.

As a read this is a pretty dry and you should only bother if you have an interest in the subject. Nonetheless, if you ARE interested in geo-politics and trying to predict where the world's balance of power is going then this book is very good, as borne out by reality 7 years later - maybe the authors will write a follow or a second revision which would be well worth a look.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Actually about politics, sociology, and Chinese history, May 25, 2004

By 

Phil Lee (Minneapolis, Minn, Silicon Tundra, USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Big Dragon: China's Future, What It Means For Business, the Economy, and the Global Order (Hardcover)

Written about 5 years ago by a NYC investment banker and a China Mgmt consultancy based in CT, this book is naturally positive towards PRChina. This book covers the end of the second decade of Premier Deng's Reform and Opening to foreign investment. And before the Asian crash of 2000.

The authors' point-of-view is towards the political, sociological, and militarily first, economics second, and corporate investment third. They obliquely discuss US corporate investments, but this is neither a How To book, nor a B-school reader. Many remarks and keylines are more towards an extended discussion of temporal news and the sensational, as opposed to business facts and analysis. Like a fleshed out Neisbitt text of glittering generalities.

The strengths of this book are in interpreting and extended discussion on the how's and why's socialism with Chinese characteristics work as it does. When the Western press lays down emotionally charged words of democracy, free market, entrepreneur, etc, these concepts need careful explanations on what, exactly, this means in the Chinese context and the surrounding business milieu. These explanations, implications, and why they are so, as the reader will discover is quite different from straight Western interpretations.

The first half of the book deals with China history since Mao after WWII. Then Deng's Opening in Chap 2, p47 there is a 2-page discussion on Overseas Ethnic Chinese and their investment into the homeland in the Shenzhen SEZ. On p127, the authors agree that a "Greater China" exists including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the OEChinese business dominated ASEAN countries all cooperating. In Chap 8, they discuss the enormity of the State-Owned-Enterprises which are largely non-performing by western standards, but who employ over 70% of the domestic urban workforce of 170 million people. Many SOEs are producing obsolete products, with a featherbedded workforce, that have been superceded by a market economy in other sectors. The new Premiers Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji appear serious in slowly reforming the SOEs, the bedrock of the socialist empire.

The second half of the book deals with China's problems and issues, starting with Chap 8. Most Western press criticize the apparent lack of responsibility from leaders on these issues, SOEs, banks, SOL, SSI, etc. The authors, in contrast, evaluate this criticism in context of the larger whole and cite how deliberate progress is being made. As illustrated by three entrepreneurial case studies in Part III covering 30 pages, Chinese entrepreneurship is fostered by the Politburo as an experiment to help shore up the SOE profitability. So-called capitalism with Chinese characteristics is fostered in order to quickly develop real estate, along with large OEChinese capital infusions, so that there are suitable industrial parks (SEZ) to attract foreign investment to setup hi-tech manufacturing. The Politburo then covets corporate America with deep pockets in order to gather hard currency, implement new technology, create new jobs, and expand exports to further fund national and educational infrastructure and technology upgrades in SOEs. This conclusion is consistent with Jim Mann's book a decade earlier in "Beijing Jeep," and the authors agree on p90 that for corporate America to be successful in PRChina, it will require both manufacturing and technology transfer to the Chinese JVs. All under the watchful eye and blessing of the Politburo. Pretty crafty!

In Chap14 and 15 The Next Five Years, on p278 significant political and social change will not occur until the Chinese GenX, 5th gens who grew up in a post-Mao era, come to power in about 20 years, about year 2020.

Lets see if any of the author's prophecies came true. While discussed along with MFN status p364, they did not predict that China would win WTO admission in 2001. Also they didn't predict the Millennium crash in Asia, their forecast was for 2004 p341. On p340, they said that the Three Gorges Dam's first generators would turn on in 2003, actual is 2004. On p309, the authors did write about 2 inches on the oil, Persian Gulf, and Islamic issues, but did not predict the US-Iraq War. Pretty myopic vision for globalists? Score is 1 for 4. Not good. There are many more prophesies to 2024, Year of the Dragon, which includes Taiwan's return to the China fold.

In the last Chapter 18, the authors continue harping on US-China Cold-War. They plead that after 30 years, an updated Shanghai Compact 2002 needs to be enacted. I fail to see the significance in ending their book with 20+ pages on the subject, including many shorter US Hawk rampages on the subject spread throughout their text.

The book's rear dust jacket poses 6 fundamental questions on the coming changes in the new world order. These questions must have been written by the editors, because I'd say that the authors did not really specifically address these questions in any detail, read: don't judge a book by its cover, which I read at a local public library.

The authors have 18 Chapters and a 14-page index. Each page has a sidebar quote from important dignitaries, both western and Chinese, hence the inflated 400 page book. There are no tables of World Bank numbers, no pictures or figures or maps. There are 10 pages of Notes, mainly from US / UK periodicals. The Acknowledgement pages give recognition to about 150 people that they interviewed, more than three quarters have Chinese surnames. However, for security reasons, they are not footnoted in the book.