Customer Reviews

Big Dragon: China's Future, What It Means For Business, the Economy, and the Global Order

5 star:		(3)
4 star:		(5)
3 star:		(0)
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1 star:		(0)

 

 

This book does what it sets out to do admirably well, although the reaction of certain readers makes it clear that its approach is lacking in certain areas.

This book is a comprehensive but well-focused review of the current political and economic system of China, recent trends in US-China relationship, and the emerging currents in Chinese society that will shape the country in the next quarter century. The book is written primarily from a business perspective, focusing on China's economic and market potentials (forecasted to match the US in total GDP by the 2020's though still much poorer in per capita terms) and the impact of political developments on the business environment. For those readers not yet familiar with contemporary China, this book is a remarkably well-informed primer. But even old China-hands will find the authors' detailed discussion of the probable future of China (some 100 pages are devoted to the section titled "Geomancing the Dragon") thought-provoking even if their own conclusions may vary.

However, the authors sought to instruct as well as inform. And their recommendations for improving US-China relationship - although perfectly sensible - may not persuade the human rights hawks in the US, who may consider arguments on strictly mercantilist terms immoral. But it's no accident that most of those intimately familiar with China are "pro-China" in the sense defined by a previous reviewer. China has plenty of human rights problems, but it has also come a remarkably long way in a amazingly short time. Progress cannot be measured without the context of history, and it's this area that did not receive sufficient treatment. The general normalcy of China today is an accomplishment that cannot be adequately appreciated without greater understanding of 20th century Chinese history.

There are issues of fundamental human rights and there are issues of political organization. While one is certainly entitled to avidly avocate the political system of his or her choice, one should refrain from waging moral crusades when we are all equally human and fallible.

A very dry but ultimately absorbing book attempting to describe China's place in Asia, the world and in particular its relationship to America and also then the implications of China's economy continuing to grow at a fast rate for the next 20-30 years.

It is now nearly 8 years old since this was first published and so reading it is a little bit like reading old newspapers but the age of the book does not make it irrelevant; we can compare their projections with reality and also see how much has actually changed in terms of what the current state of the relationship between America and China is, what the main concerns are around the world with a rising China and how well the Chinese economy continues to perform.

The authors are obviously experts in China and this is shown in that impressively most of their predictions seem on track. For example, Hong Kong is still relatively a independent territory but as they pointed out its economic importance has diminished in favour of Shanghai - this was sort of predicted by the authors. Also, the so called bankrupt and in dire need of overhaul State owned enterprises are still up and running, still apparently unprofitable and have not (despite some commentators - see strator) collapsed bringing the whole country with them. And finally, the issue de jour of late 90s of the Asian Financial meltdown (when the book was written) has passed and the region has recovered, without bringing the whole continent into the same turmoil seen nations of the old USSR.

As a read this is a pretty dry and you should only bother if you have an interest in the subject. Nonetheless, if you ARE interested in geo-politics and trying to predict where the world's balance of power is going then this book is very good, as borne out by reality 7 years later - maybe the authors will write a follow or a second revision which would be well worth a look.

Written about 5 years ago by a NYC investment banker and a China Mgmt consultancy based in CT, this book is naturally positive towards PRChina. This book covers the end of the second decade of Premier Deng's Reform and Opening to foreign investment. And before the Asian crash of 2000.

The authors' point-of-view is towards the political, sociological, and militarily first, economics second, and corporate investment third. They obliquely discuss US corporate investments, but this is neither a How To book, nor a B-school reader. Many remarks and keylines are more towards an extended discussion of temporal news and the sensational, as opposed to business facts and analysis. Like a fleshed out Neisbitt text of glittering generalities.

The strengths of this book are in interpreting and extended discussion on the how's and why's socialism with Chinese characteristics work as it does. When the Western press lays down emotionally charged words of democracy, free market, entrepreneur, etc, these concepts need careful explanations on what, exactly, this means in the Chinese context and the surrounding business milieu. These explanations, implications, and why they are so, as the reader will discover is quite different from straight Western interpretations.

The first half of the book deals with China history since Mao after WWII. Then Deng's Opening in Chap 2, p47 there is a 2-page discussion on Overseas Ethnic Chinese and their investment into the homeland in the Shenzhen SEZ. On p127, the authors agree that a "Greater China" exists including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the OEChinese business dominated ASEAN countries all cooperating. In Chap 8, they discuss the enormity of the State-Owned-Enterprises which are largely non-performing by western standards, but who employ over 70% of the domestic urban workforce of 170 million people. Many SOEs are producing obsolete products, with a featherbedded workforce, that have been superceded by a market economy in other sectors. The new Premiers Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji appear serious in slowly reforming the SOEs, the bedrock of the socialist empire.

The second half of the book deals with China's problems and issues, starting with Chap 8. Most Western press criticize the apparent lack of responsibility from leaders on these issues, SOEs, banks, SOL, SSI, etc. The authors, in contrast, evaluate this criticism in context of the larger whole and cite how deliberate progress is being made. As illustrated by three entrepreneurial case studies in Part III covering 30 pages, Chinese entrepreneurship is fostered by the Politburo as an experiment to help shore up the SOE profitability. So-called capitalism with Chinese characteristics is fostered in order to quickly develop real estate, along with large OEChinese capital infusions, so that there are suitable industrial parks (SEZ) to attract foreign investment to setup hi-tech manufacturing. The Politburo then covets corporate America with deep pockets in order to gather hard currency, implement new technology, create new jobs, and expand exports to further fund national and educational infrastructure and technology upgrades in SOEs. This conclusion is consistent with Jim Mann's book a decade earlier in "Beijing Jeep," and the authors agree on p90 that for corporate America to be successful in PRChina, it will require both manufacturing and technology transfer to the Chinese JVs. All under the watchful eye and blessing of the Politburo. Pretty crafty!

In Chap14 and 15 The Next Five Years, on p278 significant political and social change will not occur until the Chinese GenX, 5th gens who grew up in a post-Mao era, come to power in about 20 years, about year 2020.

Lets see if any of the author's prophecies came true. While discussed along with MFN status p364, they did not predict that China would win WTO admission in 2001. Also they didn't predict the Millennium crash in Asia, their forecast was for 2004 p341. On p340, they said that the Three Gorges Dam's first generators would turn on in 2003, actual is 2004. On p309, the authors did write about 2 inches on the oil, Persian Gulf, and Islamic issues, but did not predict the US-Iraq War. Pretty myopic vision for globalists? Score is 1 for 4. Not good. There are many more prophesies to 2024, Year of the Dragon, which includes Taiwan's return to the China fold.

In the last Chapter 18, the authors continue harping on US-China Cold-War. They plead that after 30 years, an updated Shanghai Compact 2002 needs to be enacted. I fail to see the significance in ending their book with 20+ pages on the subject, including many shorter US Hawk rampages on the subject spread throughout their text.

The book's rear dust jacket poses 6 fundamental questions on the coming changes in the new world order. These questions must have been written by the editors, because I'd say that the authors did not really specifically address these questions in any detail, read: don't judge a book by its cover, which I read at a local public library.

The authors have 18 Chapters and a 14-page index. Each page has a sidebar quote from important dignitaries, both western and Chinese, hence the inflated 400 page book. There are no tables of World Bank numbers, no pictures or figures or maps. There are 10 pages of Notes, mainly from US / UK periodicals. The Acknowledgement pages give recognition to about 150 people that they interviewed, more than three quarters have Chinese surnames. However, for security reasons, they are not footnoted in the book.

Another one of my highly recommended books is Big Dragon: What it means for Business, the Economy, and the Global Order. Overall, the authors have a good comprehension of China's economic and political structure. However, Big Dragon has one important omission. Although the authors casually mention the economic impact of FDI on China by overseas Chinese, I would have devoted at least one entire chapter to the subject. In fact, the vast majority of foreign investment continues to flow from overseas ethnic Chinese around the world (over 80% of FDI). Along with Taiwan, there are significant ethnic Chinese communities across Southeast Asia. Inspite of the war of words, Taiwan has over $40 billion and growing invested in China. The chances of a hot war between China and Taiwan are minimal. The overseas Chinese FDI permeates throughout China's economy in almost every sector including agriculture, biotech, services, high tech manufacturing, etc. Many Chinese officials that I have spoken to would disagree, but I would argue that China's economic renaissance can primarily be attributed to the skills, technology, and capital provided by the overseas ethnic Chinese across East Asia. The growing informal structural ties between the Chinese communities across East Asia and China illustrate the development of a Greater China with Beijing at its core. China's current government is similar in many respects to the earlier dictatorships of the Park regime in South Korea or the Chiang regime in Taiwan.

This book is an excellent review of international trade politics and political developments within China that will make it the most important international issue the United States will face. The authors have done a good job of researching their information and take a less alarmist stance than Burnstein and Munro. I especially like the short quotations inserted on the side of each page to help expand on the topics discussed in the book.

I was going through one of my closets and I came across the book Big Dragon. I read the book eight years ago, and I remember having pause at that time for the huge impact China seemed to represent for the rest of the world. And looking back, all that was said then seems prevalent now. China annually graduates one million college students and they completely dominate the information and engineering fields. This represents two major issues that most people take for granted: 1st. China's domination in those fields camouflages India's important position in those same fields: 2nd. Their competitive nature generates a protectionist American attitude. Chinese students typically graduate high school with five years of physics. Typically, these are students that are recognized in their formative years as promising. And with 800 million candidates the prospects continue to show promise. Public education in the U.S. will be hard pressed for several years, if ever, to match the stellar performance of China. Noticable personalities such as Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Michael Dell all worry about America's worldwide educational placement. And because the Chinese population have grown up accustomed to richer levels of competition, they may be better positioned to compete globally. As their ecomony expands and their need for petroleum grows, the price of oil increases, forcing the entire world to take notice. And as their hunger for economic expansion grows, their need to forge alliances with oil rich Western enemies increases. Whether this represents future challenges for Western economies remains to be seen. But in the end, when the full impact of the tenacity with which the Chinese are capable and accustomed to competing is realized; especially in the U.S., the palpability of nationalistic resentment towards China from working class Americans is going to be extremely high.

Another one of my highly recommended books is Big Dragon: What it means for Business, the Economy, and the Global Order. Overall, the authors have a good comprehension of China's economic and political structure. However, Big Dragon has one important omission. Although the authors casually mention the economic impact of FDI on China by overseas Chinese, I would have devoted at least one entire chapter to the subject. In fact, the vast majority of foreign investment continues to flow from overseas ethnic Chinese around the world (over 80% of FDI). Along with Taiwan, there are significant ethnic Chinese communities across Southeast Asia. Inspite of the war of words, Taiwan has over $40 billion and growing invested in China. The chances of a hot war between China and Taiwan are minimal. The overseas Chinese FDI permeates throughout China's economy in almost every sector including agriculture, biotech, services, high tech manufacturing, etc. Many Chinese officials that I have spoken to would disagree, but I would argue that China's economic renaissance can primarily be attributed to the skills, technology, and capital provided by the overseas ethnic Chinese across East Asia. The growing informal structural ties between the Chinese communities across East Asia and China illustrate the development of a Greater China with Beijing at its core. China's current government is similar in many respects to the earlier dictatorships of the Park regime in South Korea or the Chiang regime in Taiwan.

It's been estimated that only 4% of Americans can tell the difference between People's Republic of China & Republic of China. (one of them is Taiwan). only 16% of them know Jiangzemin & Deng XiaoPing are the leaders of China. I've personally known quite a few Americans who think Hong Kong is part of Japan. Yet, they have been brainwashed by the western mass media about the image of China, they think they know China well, whenever a Chinese leader goes to Europe or US, they always raise the free Tibet signs. In this book, the writer, despite being an American , is able to help to point out the common misconception of China.

I agree 200% with what the author says. the writer is right to point out that China has always been peaceful, in late 19th century The Western powers all came here to China to get a slice of cake from the then weak Qing Dynasty. Britain sold us opium, took Hong Kong by force, (some looted National treasure from the Qing Dynasty is still on display in the British Museum. 4 of them were even sold back to China for billions the other week.), Japanese did the nanking massacre, France looted Vietnam, Spain took Phillipine, various inland of China was "rent" to Portugal, Germany, Austria, America, Russia, Italy...etc . Now, when the Communist party took back Tibet which was part of china during Qing & Yuan dynasty, those westerners robbers now get the thick face to tell China to free Tibet and respect human right? If you are Europeans, you'll definitely find this enlightening book. The author tells the fact.

The author also point out that China was centuries ahead of Spaniards and British in exploring the oceans, we were the first one to land in Mexico, but we were peaceful and never took other's land, it's the Westerners who did the expansion. Now, China have every reason to expand the army for self defense, this single act make the guilty/sneaky Westerners nervous. The author also show his confidence in China's peaceful nature.

Another great point the author made is on Hong Kong's return to China Once I met an American woman who told me that she's worried about the future of Hong Kong. she said that so proudly, as if we Hong Kongist all need their help. In this book, the writer dymistified this myth. Western robbers now say China is not democratic enough and will keep watching China's behavior to protect us the Hong Kongist. What they don't know is that Hong Kong has been ruled by several tens of governor of Britain, and only one Primier or Queen was responsible for choosing them, the current Chief Executive of Hong Kong Tung Chee Wah was chosen by several hundreds of people in Chinese government, and now the Westerners think that this is the end of Hong Kong's democracy. the last Governor of Hong Kong did made lot of democratic reform in his final 2 years, China of course have no reason to take that "tradition". I've always known this fact, but in this book, it's logically organised to form a powerful argument against the Western's non-democratic China theory.

Hats off to this American writer who dares to tell the truth and not to follow what everyone else is saying. I think this is the first step to enlighten the American people. You may be surprised to knwo that there are more biased people in the land of freedom USA, than in China when the news are controlled. (In fact, most Americans only care about the pop stars, and while voting, they only vote for the handsomest president. However, in China and India, people read more about politics and history, they are in general more educated and know better what's happening in the world (including the news the Chinese government intends to cover).

I sincerely recommend this book to all Americans and Europeans whose only impression and knowledge of China is from their government propaganda or from the Hollywood movies " 7 years in Tibet", Air Force one or " Street Fighter". China is light years away from what you think. In Hong Kong majority of people welcome the Chinese takeover, while (from this book) only about 10% of American think that the HongKongist like it. majority of Chinese I know in China knew about the June 4th incident, yet majority of them is on the side of the government. (though the use of real bullet raise some debate), This book is closer to what the reality is. If you want to knwo China, read this book, or better learn Chinese and come here to see for yourself. Don't rely on your government's propaganda...