Customer Reviews

Bill James Handbook 2009

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So assuming you haven't been hiding under a rock for the past 30 years or so, and you have even the slightest interest in statistical analysis and/or fantasy baseball, you know who Bill James is. Hopefully you've picked prior versions of this book so it isn't a completely new topic to you.

But If it is your first encounter with Mr. James' work - don't do yourself the disservice of just picking TBJH2009 up and flipping through it. The majority of pages contain statistics and you'll probably just dismiss it as being an encyclopedia of players' performance. Not that this isn't entirely true...but the real key is to understand why the book contains all this data.

James has been at work for 30 years trying to figure out the correlation of numbers to winning. He knew that it wasn't all about the "traditional" statistics - batting average, win-loss record, and ERA to name a few...he sensed that there was something more out there that could be used as a gauge of a player's ability to contribute to his team's ability to win ballgames.

It's James' thinking about the relation of statistics to winning that is what deliver the punch of the book. Even though it only occupies a dozen or so pages, his analysis and introduction to certain statistical categories give the numbers context and meaning, and turn them into things that should be thought about as opposed to just looked at.

The first thing that really captured my attention - and this is on page 321, mind you - is his article on bullpens, specifically his assigning of positions to the pitchers who comprise a bullpen. It's not fair to compare a utility reliever to a closer - yet the current mainstream thinking does just that. Each pitcher in the bullpen comes into the game in different situations, and James argues that we need to look at their performance on an individual basis while in the context of their role. The Bill James Handbook 2009 provides the tools and instructions for doing just that, and the result is a smarter and more educated fan.

In the same vain of understanding what affects success, James and the crew at Baseaball Info Solutions have provided a tremendous amount of data on managers - how many lineups they use, how quick they are to pull their starting pitchers, and one of my favorites - how successful they are when they call for an intentional walk. Managers tend to be either overlooked or somewhat unfairly criticized, and James reminds the reader that he is there "trying to pollute the discussion of managers with actual facts."

To James, it's one thing to suppose something, it's quite another to actually have numbers and facts that can be used to support tendencies.

What James and his collaborators ultimately are trying to do with The Bill James Handbook 2009 - besides sell books, of course - is to challenge your way of thinking and to take the shackles off your brain and allow you to look at statistics and numbers in a whole new light and not only learn what they think, but possibly discover your own correlations.

For instance - James suggests the possibility of MLB teams "employ(ing) platoon players like Las Vegas employs comedy acts." He takes two players at the same position who have such polar opposite lefty/righty splits that combining them would be a dream come true - and he subsequently renames the tandem to elicit a decent chuckle from the reader.

The book concludes with two sections that ultimately challenge the reader the most - league leaders and 2009 projections. The former encourages you to look at the top 10 leaders in an array of statistical categories and see which tend to have the most influence on winning; while the latter gives you a glimpse into the future through the eyes of James and his team. You can't argue with the leaders, yet you can debate the projections until everyone is blue in the face - that is a big part of the appeal.

Not to be left out are the Fielding Bible 2008 awards and a realtively new project that Mr. James has shared with his readers - his Young Talent Inventory, where he attempts to rate the best young players in baseball as well as which team has the best young players in their system. Depending on how your team came out, it could either be a bright spot for the future, or signs of conern if you believe in developing talent and bringing up the future from within your organization.

The Bill James Handbook 2009 is another heavy hitter, particularly when it comes to off-season reading both to recap the 2008 season and look ahead to the 2009 campaign. I'm glad to have my copy ready to go, knowing that it's assuming it's rightful position on my desk's reference shelf.

Kim: Looks like you got another !@#$ing book in the mail.
Me: The new Bill James Handbook is here! The new Bill James Handbook is here!
Kim: [not quite under her breath] Loser.
Me: ::grinning like a goon::

That conversation may not have actually taken place, but it might as well have. I've nearly filled an entire bookshelf with baseball annuals, including six separate editions of the BJH. In a vast sea of baseball annuals, the BJH distinguishes itself from the pack by -- among other things -- hitting the streets just after the World Series ends. This year's edition was available on November 1st, and I think I may have received my review copy a day or two before then, even. I'm still not sure how they get it finished and shipped so quickly; I think it has something to do with elves.

First off, the Fielding Bible awards are back, and Carlos Beltran was honored as the top defensive centerfielder, beating out former Mets Carlos Gomez and Mike Cameron, among others. A panel of ten "experts" voted on the awards, including Bill James, John Dewan, Joe Posnanski and Rob Neyer. David Wright finished tied for fifth at third base (Adrian Beltre won), Jose Reyes finished tenth at shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) and Johan Santana was the sixth highest-ranked pitcher (Kenny Rogers). The voting was somewhat subjective, though I suppose each panelist reached his conclusions using whatever means he considered the most meaningful. The objective counterpart to the awards are Dewan's plus/minus leaders, which would seem to cut into his profits on the forthcoming Fielding Bible 2009. Jose Reyes appears on neither the leaders nor the trailers list, so we may actually have to wait for the FB2009 to know how he actually rated. From the "Kinda Looks Like a Misprint" department, Chase Utley was 47 plays better than average at second base, which is mind-boggling. Also mind-boggling: Pat Burrell was -73 in left field from 2006-2008. Do. Not. Want.

As usual, the BJH devotes near 300 pages to the career registers of every player who was active in 2008. I understand why they include it, and it's theoretically handy to have that kind of information on hand, but in practice I just find it negligibly useful. All of that information -- and much, much more -- is seconds away on the internets. I've got a desktop and a laptop (and an iPhone), so there's rarely a time when it's more convenient to look up a player's statistics in a book instead of hopping online. Maybe I'm on an island here, but I'd prefer they save some trees, cut the career register, and maybe add a few more Bill James articles about the prior season in order to flesh things out a little bit.

The time I save by not looking at the career register I can spend on the 2008 baserunning statistics, which are just fascinating to me. If we can accurately measure runs created on the basepaths, there's no reason they shouldn't be included in a player's total value when we're quantifying his contributions to the team. Offense is X, defense is Y, and baserunning should be Z. The BJH's baserunning stats measure each player's ability at:

* Going first-to-third on a single
* Going second-to-home on a single
* Going first-to-home on a double
* Advancing on outs
* Not getting doubled off
* Not grounding into double-plays

All of those factors are thrown into a mixer which spits out a base runs gained/lost. That number is combined with stolen base gain/lost to arrive at a total baserunning gain/lost, expressed in runs. Carlos Beltran cracked the top ten with +35 base runs, which you can add to the list of things he does extraordinarily well. Jose Reyes was at +32. Derek Jeter was -13. Willy Taveras led all big leaguers with +70 base runs. Dioner Navarro trailed everyone at -39. As a team, the Mets were fourth in the majors with +85 base runs. The World Champion Phillies were first overall with +114 base runs.

The relief pitching section is also neat, as it breaks down saves into different types (easy, regular, tough), and also includes things like stranding inherited runners, pitching on consecutive days, high-leverage situations, long outings blown save/win situations, and some other stuff. A "tough save" is defined as one in which a reliever comes into the game with the tying or go-ahead runs on base. Tough saves were only converted successfully 22% of the time in 2008. The Mets' bullpen served to drag that number down a bit by going 0-for-8 in tough save opportunities.

We've also got a section on manufactured runs. This goes a bit beyond productive outs by determining actual runs that scored as a result of "productive" outs. A manufactured run, per the BJH, is "(a) any run on which two or more of the bases come from something other than playing station-to-station baseball, or (b) a run that scores without a hit, or with only infield hits". They're further separated into deliberately manufactured runs (runs that involve a stolen base, a bunt, or a pinch-runner) and non-deliberate manufactured runs (one that don't include the aforementioned managerial decisions). For whatever it's worth, the Mets manufactured more total runs -- 207 -- than any other National League team, and just shy of the 213 manufactured by the Twins. Yay! Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are the top two manufacturers in the NL, craftily assembling 42 runs and 37 runs, respectively.

The book goes on and on. We've got managerial records, park factors, comprehensive ballpark statistics (Shea Stadium suppressed RHB batting average more than any NL park outside of San Diego), lefty/right splits for batters and pitchers, esoteric stat leaderboards (David Wright had the second-highest NL OPS among players under 25; Mike Pelfrey led the NL in GIDP/9 with 1.30; Oliver Perez was the most extreme flyball pitcher in all of baseball;), career win shares, and the Young Talent Inventory (Wright and Reyes are both among James's top ten players under 27). We also get 2009 projections for batters and pitchers.

If that weren't enough, there's also career targets (formerly known as the Favorite Toy), which evaluates the likelihood of certain players hitting certain milestones. For instance, Jose Reyes has a 31% chance of reaching 3,000 hits and a 5% chance of reaching 4,000 hits. Alex Rodriguez dominates this section, and has a 49% chance of breaking Barry Bonds's career homerun record.

There's really just an astounding amount of information in here, and it's very easy to get lost within it for hours at a time. I urge you to pick up your own copy and support the folks that make this and other great baseball books possible.

I was heart broken when The Sporting News discontinued their brilliant annual release of The Baseball Register. Purchasing it had become a right of spring, a signal that winter would soon be over. The Bill James Handbook fills the same purpose. This is a book you keep by your chair as you watch baseball. When you see a player you want to know more about, the book is within arms reach to tell you everything you want to know. The only thing lacking in the Handbook is the minor league careers of the players. It was always cool to see how they had come up through the minors, and that information will be missed. Otherwise, this book serves it's purpose well. I would highly recommend it for those missing their Baseball Register.

The book sells itself. See the Key Features. If those appeal to you, you should buy it. The book is as good as ever. The question is whether the book is necessary, given the raft of other excellent sabermetric books that will be on the market this winter. The other books, by and large, are focused on fantasy baseball or prospects. The Handbook is different. No matter how much baseball you watch or read about during the season, it's impossible to keep up with all of it. And there's not enough time during the daily grind of the season to assimilate what's happening, if you're interested in how this season fits into the broader perspective of past seasons. The Handbook allows you to experience the season with the benefit of hindsight, to catch up, and to learn some things about how managers really used their personnel. On every page you'll probably see something you didn't know, or that corrects what you thought you knew. In addition to the stats, you have unique sections on base running, bullpens, lineup efficiency, small-ball tactics, etc. With a lot of other books, the emphasis is on the bottom line answers. With Bill's book, the journey matters as much as the destination. The Handbook allows you to spend the winter reconstructing the journey of the past season in a variety of ways, and to make sense of it for yourself. If you want to do your own thinking, the book is as relevant as ever.

I'm a raving fan of the Bill James Baseball Handbook.

This year's edition has everything that you would expect from the Bill James Baseball Handbook - plus some new wrinkles, including: career post-season stats (through 2007) and a new section on relief pitching.

Some interesting facts and figures from the Bill James Handbook 2009:

Did you know that Joe Girardi had Yankees runners moving with a pitch 173 times in 2008? That was tops in the majors - and the tops in the A.L., by far.

Yet, this past season, the Yankees were 62/230 in terms of going "1st to 3rd" on the bases - and 110/192 going "2nd to home."

For a point of comparison, the Rays were 60/199 going "1st to 3rd" and 105/185 going "2nd to home." And, the Angels were 85/235 going "1st to 3rd" and 121/202 going "2nd to home."

And, in terms of "manufacturing" a run - in terms of producing a run where a stolen base, bunt, or pinch-runner was involved, the Yankees "manufactured" 52 of these types of runs in 2008.

For a point of comparison, the Twins had 95 of these runs, the Angels had 65, the Red Sox had 57, and the Rays had 62.

O.K., that's just a taste of the sort of stuff that you can find in the Bill James Handbook 2009.

I highly recommend this book to anyone who enjoys baseball stats. You can sit with it for hours and enjoy it. I know that I will...in fact, that's why I'm not writing more about it now...as I'd rather be reading it at this moment that writing about it.

Baseball and statistics are like a horse and carriage or love and marriage--they just go together! And when one talks baseball statistics, it won't be too long before the name Bill James comes into play.

A glossary at the end provides a glimpse of some of those statistics that are amassed: % of runners inherited by relief pitchers that score; number of times a runner goes from first to third on a single; component ERC (variation on a pitcher's ERA, taking into account such variables as how many home runs allowed, hit batsmen, walks--put together as a mathematical equation), range factor (how much range a player has at his position in the field), a tough save (a situation in which a reliever enters the game with the tying run on base), and speed score (how fast a player is).

The end of the book features James' predictions as to the odds that a subset of players has at certain milestones. For instance, James gives Derek Jeter a 93% chance of getting to 3,000 hits. Any others close? Alex Rodriguez has an 89% chance, Vlad Guerrero a 53% chance. . . . Those are the only ones with better than a 50-50 opportunity. What about 300 wins? Here, the chances are slim and none for anyone except Randy Johnson, who comes in at 86% likely to capture 300 victories. Mike Mussina (retired) is second at 47%. Then we drop back to Jamie Moyer (highly unlikely) at 25%. What about Bonds' career home run record? James gives A-Rod a 49% chance, with number 2 being Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard with a rather small 9% likelihood of reaching this figure.

Then, there are the individual statistics--basics like home runs or RBIs or wins or ERA as well as some of James' more exotic statistics. Jermaine Dye, for example, is a good steady major league hitter. 298 career home runs and a .276 batting average. Not a great base runner, having stolen 66% of bases he ran for (a career total of 46 steals). He went from first to third 22% of the time. The league average is 27%, so this datum suggests that he is not the best base runner in the league. Magglio Ordonez for some comparison made this move less still--19% of the time. James has also developed a net gain index, showing how fast or slow a player is, with scores ranging from negative (David Ortiz was -10, Dye was +1, and Matt Holiday was +52).

There are so many features of this book that it's tough to summarize briefly. League leaders are listed; effects of baseball parks on the game; managers' performance. . . .

So, if you are a figure filbert who cannot get enough of baseball statistics, this should prove enjoyable to you. It's an annual publication that I enjoy acquiring each year.

I have ordered this book for the past 3 years.The information you find
in this book is great. If you are looking for different types of baseball stats then this is the book you want.

Very nice. All the information that you want on every player. Nicely organized, information is easy to find. My only complaint is that the print is a little small and I have to get my reading glasses to read it.

Typical Bill James...solid, statistical analysis of baseball, its players and the critical factors that make the difference between winning and losing ...if you are the least bit quantitative and have an interest in baseball, this is a must buy! ...very comprehensive.

The Bill James Handbook Is a Baseball Fanatics Dream. Every year it gets better and better, and more and more stats that you could spend two years fully digesting are added in to the already abundance of stats overflowing from the book. Every Player to play a Major League game in 2008+Important Injured players that Missed the season but Probably will play in 2009 and major foreign signings are given Year by Year stats. For Players with two or less calendar seasons in the majors their entire carrier is listed including Minor league stats. If a Player has played in three or more Calendar years (Even if they are still considered a Rookie) Only their Major league Stats are listed, Plus The latest season's Minor league Stats (If their are any) If a Player played for two or more teams in a given year the combined total is listed. Then later in the stat section Each Individual team He played for has the stats broken down, Team by Team. Fielding Stats are Available. Overall it is a tremendous book. The Casual Baseball fan won't understand much of it, But the crazy Baseball Fanatic (Like Me) Will get a Wealth a Information from this book. Enjoy.