Customer Reviews

Blackout

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I bought this book hoping to gain a better understanding of coal futures, and a glimpse into the inevitable transition to a 'post-carbon' world. The first expectation was met with brilliance, but the second was given only superficial treatment. If it weren't for the pressing urgency of the coal depletion issue, I'd have rated this with only 3 stars. However, the evidence Heinberg presents makes it clear that people must, if they take the physical basis of industrial civilisation seriously, bravely face up to this frankly scary issue.

The Introduction emphasises the importance of coal for electricity production and hence narrowly defined economic growth. It also describes succinctly the environmental impacts of coal, which include local water and air pollution near mines, the release of contaminants such as mercury, arsenic and sulphur dioxide at the point of combustion and the fact that coal is responsible for 40% of global CO2 emissions despite only providing 25% of global energy consumption.

What is not mentioned in the book, however, is that James Hansen, probably the world's most eminent climate scientist, has called for a global moratorium on the construction of coal fired power plants (...), describing them in uncharacteristically strong language as "death factories". When the environmental impacts in Heinberg's book are considered, this seems like a fair description.

Chapter 1 contains the core of the book's argument and analysis, and convincingly suggests that global coal production is reaching geological limits and will begin to decline within a decade or two. The preference for mining large, high quality deposits first, and then going for hard to extract sites implies that coal production is unlikely to satisfy a growth-obsessed economy, which demands ever increasing material inputs. The headline results can be summarized quite briefly: recent analyses by the National Academy of Sciences, the Energy Watch Group and Caltech's David Rutledge show coal is not as abundant as we thought it was. This is exacerbated by the increasing price of oil, which is used as diesel in the mining, processing, and transportation of coal.

Chapters 2 to 5 simply disaggregate the global analysis made in chapter 1 by region - looking at the US, China, Russia and India, and finally everywhere else. These chapters feel rather like a re-hash of the reports mentioned in chapter 1, although would offer useful insights for concerned citizens looking to understand the coal situation in their region. But there is nothing in the way of suggested strategies for shutting down the devastating coal industry. Concerned scientists and citizens may be looking for something more pragmatic here. While Heinberg has the guts to look the reality of coal depletion in the face, he appears to falter when it comes to stopping the disastrous coal industry. Heinberg would surely agree that this industry is destroying the long-term viability of industrial civilisation so why does he sidestep strategies for dismantling it?

Finally, after a discussion of coal and climate (Chapter 6), and an excellent overview of new coal technologies (Chapter 7 - underground coal gasification won't change the depletion profiles significantly) Heinberg ponders potential futures in Chapter 8. 3 scenarios - summarized by myself as burn baby burn, "clean" but useless, and WW2 style transformation of the structure of the global economy are painted. This is a useful academic exercise for politicians and members of the public who engage in politics through the limited pathways prescribed by the state (GO SCENARIO 3 GO!!!). It adds the vital natural resource dimension to the amazing "where are we going?" debates (e.g. as discussed in Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet, The Spirit Level: Why Equality Is Better For Everyone, and Farewell to Growth). However, it does not give you a coherent agenda for dealing with these problems in you own life. For that, I recommend Long Descent: A User's Guide to the End of the Industrial Age, Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World and more importantly that you begin the search for low energy futures in your own world.

I'm not particularly impressed with Heinberg's rather dull vision of the future, but his diligence as an academic is vital to inform more creative approaches. For optimistic yet pragmatic visions of a future which is compatible with physical reality, I'd advocate reading John Michael Greer, Serge Latouche, or Herman Daly.