The list author says: "The following books will provide an optimal understanding of how one should study and organize the data and observations that comprise the social sciences.These books provide a broad foundation in logical,epistemological,and philosophical techniques that are sound and valid.A reader who masters these books will quickly grasp the complex, dynamic,nonlinear aspects of social science systems as they evolve through time-Books:1)The General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money(1936,J M Keynes.Harcourt,Brace and World,1964),(2)A Treatise on Probability(1921,J M Keynes),3)Risk,Uncertainty and Profit(1921,F Knight),(4)The Theory of Economic Development(J Schumpeter,1911),(5)The Wealth of Nations(A Smith,1776),(6)Risk,Ambiguity and Decision(D Ellsberg,2001),(7)The (Mis)Behavior of Markets(2004,B. Mandelbrot and R. Hudson),(8)Probability,Econometrics and Truth( H.Keuzenkamp,2001),(9)The Unbound Prometheus(D.Landes,1974),(10)The Laws of Thought(G.Boole,1854),(11) THe Theory od Moral Sentiments(Smith,6th ed.,1790)."
"Keynes provides the first analysis in history of-(a) interval estimate techniques,(b)an index to measure uncertainty or ambiguity,and (c)a decision rule that solves most of the paradoxes of "modern" decision theory"
"Smith was one hundred and fifty years ahead of his time.One example (of many) is his explicit requirement that a necessary condition for savings to be invested optimally over time is that the central bank maintain low,fixed rates of interest permanently.Only Keynes reached this same conclusion."
"Improves on all aspects of Keynes's decision theory.One merely substitutes Ellsberg's rho index for Keynes's w index, the " restricted Bayes-Hurwicz criterion" for Keynes's conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c,and sets of prob.dist. for Keynes's intervals."
"Presents overwhelming evidence that "modern" economic theory's(macroeconomics,financial economics,econometrics) foundation on the assumption that all markets are normally distributed is false.That means that one has to deal with the wild risk of the cauchy and not the mild risk of the normal."
"Demonstrates why the econometricians usually end up making the wrong forecast.Shows why Keynes decisively won his 1939-40 exchange with Tinbergen.Read this book after you have finished Ellsberg and Mandelbrot."
"Read this book after you have finished with Schumpeter's book.Provides massive confirmation of Schumpeter's emphasis on the " regular irregularity " of factors creating business cycles(innovation and technological change and advance/obsolescence creates uncertainty/ambiguity)."
"Boole is the genius who started it all.Keynes showed how to turn Boole's theoretical approach to the specification of upper and lower probability estimates into a method of approximation upon which to base a theory of induction and analogy."
"This is the only book currently in print that deals with the relationship between Keynes's logical theory of probability,his interval estimate approach to probability,his decision theory ,and the economic analysis contained in the General Theory."