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Books with the best decision  theoretic and philosophical foundation

Michael Emmett Brady "mandmbrady"
The list author says: "The following books will provide an optimal understanding of how one should study and organize the data and observations that comprise the social sciences.These books provide a broad foundation in logical,epistemological,and philosophical techniques that are sound and valid.A reader who masters these books will quickly grasp the complex, dynamic,nonlinear aspects of social science systems as they evolve through time-Books:1)The General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money(1936,J M Keynes.Harcourt,Brace and World,1964),(2)A Treatise on Probability(1921,J M Keynes),3)Risk,Uncertainty and Profit(1921,F Knight),(4)The Theory of Economic Development(J Schumpeter,1911),(5)The Wealth of Nations(A Smith,1776),(6)Risk,Ambiguity and Decision(D Ellsberg,2001),(7)The (Mis)Behavior of Markets(2004,B. Mandelbrot and R. Hudson),(8)Probability,Econometrics and Truth( H.Keuzenkamp,2001),(9)The Unbound Prometheus(D.Landes,1974),(10)The Laws of Thought(G.Boole,1854),(11) THe Theory od Moral Sentiments(Smith,6th ed.,1790)."
The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (Great Minds Series)
The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (Great Minds Series)
"Combines mathematical,logical,epistemological,and economic exposition in an analytic manner that has not been duplicated since 1936."
A Treatise on Probability
A Treatise on Probability
"Keynes provides the first analysis in history of-(a) interval estimate techniques,(b)an index to measure uncertainty or ambiguity,and (c)a decision rule that solves most of the paradoxes of "modern" decision theory"
Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Dover Books on History, Political and Social Science)
Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Dover Books on History, Political and Social Science)
"Knight does a brilliant job of explaining the impact of uncertainty (ambiguity)on economic decision making and explaining why it is much more important than risk in determining future outcomes."
The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (Social Science Classics Series)
The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (Social Science Classics Series)
"Schumpeter was the first to explicitly analyze the impact of uncertainty on the business cycle in chapter 7.Keynes's failure to cite this chapter in the GT was a major blunder."
The Wealth of Nations (Bantam Classics)
The Wealth of Nations (Bantam Classics)
"Smith was one hundred and fifty years ahead of his time.One example (of many) is his explicit requirement that a necessary condition for savings to be invested optimally over time is that the central bank maintain low,fixed rates of interest permanently.Only Keynes reached this same conclusion."
Risk, Ambiguity and Decision (Studies in Philosophy)
Risk, Ambiguity and Decision (Studies in Philosophy)
"Improves on all aspects of Keynes's decision theory.One merely substitutes Ellsberg's rho index for Keynes's w index, the " restricted Bayes-Hurwicz criterion" for Keynes's conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c,and sets of prob.dist. for Keynes's intervals."
The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence
The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence
"Presents overwhelming evidence that "modern" economic theory's(macroeconomics,financial economics,econometrics) foundation on the assumption that all markets are normally distributed is false.That means that one has to deal with the wild risk of the cauchy and not the mild risk of the normal."
Probability, Econometrics and Truth: The Methodology of Econometrics
Probability, Econometrics and Truth: The Methodology of Econometrics
"Demonstrates why the econometricians usually end up making the wrong forecast.Shows why Keynes decisively won his 1939-40 exchange with Tinbergen.Read this book after you have finished Ellsberg and Mandelbrot."
The Unbound Prometheus: Technological Change and Industrial Development in Western Europe from 1750 to the Present
The Unbound Prometheus: Technological Change and Industrial Development in Western Europe from 1750 to the Present
"Read this book after you have finished with Schumpeter's book.Provides massive confirmation of Schumpeter's emphasis on the " regular irregularity " of factors creating business cycles(innovation and technological change and advance/obsolescence creates uncertainty/ambiguity)."
An Investigation of the Laws of Thought
An Investigation of the Laws of Thought
"Boole is the genius who started it all.Keynes showed how to turn Boole's theoretical approach to the specification of upper and lower probability estimates into a method of approximation upon which to base a theory of induction and analogy."
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto)
"Taleb's book should be read after a reader has read chapter 12(22) of Keynes's GT(1936) and Mandelbrot and Hudson(2004)."
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
"This is also a very good book.However,it is not quite as good as The Black Swan.Fooled By Randomness was a home run.The Black Swan is a grand slam."
J.M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy: The Role of Interval Valued Probability in His Approach
J.M. Keynes' Theory of Decision Making, Induction, and Analogy: The Role of Interval Valued Probability in His Approach
"This is the only  book currently in print that deals with the relationship between Keynes's logical theory of probability,his interval estimate approach to probability,his decision theory ,and the economic analysis  contained in the General Theory."
One list item is no longer in our catalog.