The Bosphorus Conundrum: Alternative Oil Pipeline By-Passes for the Turkish Straits to 2015 (Global Market Briefings) [Paperback]

Theodore Tsakiris (Author), Kevin Rosner (Editor)

Book Description

Publication Date: May 14, 2007 | ISBN-10: 184673066X | ISBN-13: 978-1846730665

Despite the pomp of the September 2006 meeting between the leaders of Russia, Greece and Bulgaria, the most important point in BAPLines (Burgas-Alexandroupolis Pipeline) latest resuscitation can be dated back to the April 2005 meeting in Sofia between the ministers of energy of the three states. The Sofia meeting also constituted a decisive turning point in Russias petroleum diplomacy vis-a-vis Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria, regarding the need to balance the construction of the first major pipeline carrying Caspian Oil to global markets in ways that by-passed not only the Turkish chokepoint, but more importantly Moscow itself. In the longer term, trumping Russias decision to underwrite BAPLine and the ramifications of such a decision on the comparative attractiveness of every other alternative by-pass, is the emergence of Kazakhstan as the dominant exporter of Caspian crude. The servicing of Kashagans output will demand by the mid-2010s a third Main Export Pipeline after the BTC and in all probability the BAPLine. This report will focus on the medium-term projections regarding the development of the regions net export potential and in particular the western-oriented oil flows that are expected to transit through the Caspian and Black Sea. Further, the report will provide a detailed risk assessment of the seven major export alternatives for both the second and the third Bosphorus by-pass. Finally, some general conclusions are drawn regarding the prospects of Russias foreign energy priorities in the Greater South-East Europe region, with a particular emphasis on its natural gas transit policies after the January 2006 Russian-Ukrainian debacle.

Editorial Reviews

Review

In The Bosphorus Conundrum Theodore Tsakiris successfully highlights the conflicting pressures and priorities that shape Europe's quest for greater energy security as it attempts to increase and diversify its oil supplies. The geo-economic reality of threats to security of oil transit through the overcrowded Bosphorus Straits, combined with the geopolitical reality of a newly assertive, energy-rich Russia have produced a situation in which several contending piplines routes that bypass the Borphorus are competing for resources and endorsements. Tsakiris evaluates each of these potential pipelines, explaining the rationale behind the Burgas-Alexandroupolis route, and provides a well-informed context for understanding the latest iteration of the Capsian Great Game. -- Professor Angela Stent "Director, Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies Georgetown University, National Intelligence Council Officer for Russia and Eurasia, 2003-2005"

About the Author

Theodore Tsakiris is completing his Ph.D. at Panteion University of Athens on the energy security policies of the Great Powers (US, Britain, Russia/USSR) over the last 100 years (1904-2004). Since August 2004, he has served as Scientific Advisor to a senior member of the Permanent Committee on Defence and Foreign Affairs of the Hellenic Parliament, as well as to the Secretary General of the Orthodox Inter-Parliamentary Assembly. And, since September 2005, he has worked as a Research Fellow at the Hellenic Center for European Studies (EKEM), a think-tank supervised by the Hellenic Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where he contributes a monthly analysis on primarily Energy Security issues and the Geoeconomics of the Former Soviet Union. Mr. Tsakiris also served as a Core Research Fellow at the Defence Analysis Institute/IAA, the in-house think-tank of the Hellenic Ministry of Defence. Before joining IAA and EKEM, he served during the Hellenic Presidency of the European Union as a member of three ad hoc committees consulting then Foreign Minister George Papandreou on EU energy policy, EU-Russian relations, and EU policies in Transcaucasia/Central Asia. He received an MA in international security policy from Georgetown University. While in Washington, DC, he worked as a political risk analyst at the energy consultancy firm of Robert McFarland, President Reagan's National Security Advisor. He also interned as a Research Analyst at the Energy Security Forum of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Middle East Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is fluent in Greek, English, and French and has advanced level reading and listening comprehension of Italian and Spanish. He has published several papers on Energy Geopolitics in industry and academic journals such as, Alexander's Oil & Gas, Global Pipelines Monthly, Defensor Pacis, Geostrategy, Comparative Strategy, Perceptions, and World Pipelines.

Kevin Rosner, PhD is a specialist in Russian oil and gas, security of critDr. Kevin Rosner, PhD is a specialist in Russian oil and gas, security of critical energy infrastructure, and international energy security policy. He served as the 2006 Co-Director of the NATO Forum on Energy Security. He is a Senior Fellow, both at the UK Defence Academy and at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) in Washington DC. Posts held include Senior Security Advisor to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline company, Project Director with the Programme on Cooperation with the Russian Federation at the OECD, and Project Manager with the UNESCO Science Division in Paris. Dr. Rosner is the founder of Therosnergroup(R), serving leading members of the global oil and gas community with energy and security analytical products.cal energy infrastructure, and international energy-security policy. He is an external expert to NATO and presently serves as the Director, NATO Forum on Energy Security. He is a Senior Fellow both at the UK Defence Academy and at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) in Washington, DC. Posts held include Senior Security Advisor to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline company, Project Director with the Program on Cooperation with the Russian Federation at the OECD, and Project Manager with the UNESCO Science Division in Paris. Dr. Rosner is the founder of The Rosner Group serving leading members of the global oil and gas community with energy and security analytical products.

Product Details

• Paperback: 58 pages
• Publisher: GMB Publishing (May 14, 2007)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 184673066X
• ISBN-13: 978-1846730665
• Product Dimensions: 11.7 x 8.3 x 0.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 7 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

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