Customer Reviews

Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization

5 star:		(18)
4 star:		(10)
3 star:		(4)
2 star:		(3)
1 star:		(2)

 

 

For anyone involved in strategic planning, security, financial markets, energy infrastructure, scenario planning, transportation or communications networking, this book is a must-read. For those of us who follow his work at the GlobalGuerrillas blog, much of the information is familiar, but presented here in book form, the many strands of thought that make up the concept come together effectively.

In short, modern communications technology and complex infrastructure make it much easier for small groups to "hollow out" a state. These groups usually don't want to take over a government, they just want to make the state weak so they can get on with their goals of smuggling, ethnic violence, or other profitable criminal activies. This ability to leverage violence and the inability of most to understand the goals of these groups will loom large in policy circles in the future.

This is the kind of book that sparks a lot of further reading and research, in my opinion. Mr. Robb is taking concepts from war, commerce and communications and making a useful model from them. This concept will be useful for families, corporations and countries.

If you want to understand the concepts that will define debate about war, insurgency, globalization and society in the coming decades, buy a copy of this book. If you are low on cash, skip a few lunches and save up the money. It is worth it.

Since the end of World War II, the world's population has nearly tripled, the Internet has allowed anybody to network with everybody, nuclear weapons have made conventional war obsolete among major powers, and the fall of the Soviet Union has unleashed a witches' brew of armed non-state groups - global guerrillas - that operate in the cracks of the disintegrating state system.

This is just the static picture; the dynamics are even scarier. Global guerrillas practice something Robb calls "open source warfare," which means that in the modern environment, people even on different continents can form or join groups, train, and carry out operations much more quickly than in the past or than the major legacy states can today. As the groups learn from each other (and a sort of Darwinism selects out the unfit), a larger pattern forms, an "emergent intelligence," similar to a marauding colony of army ants, no one of which is very sophisticated, but operating together according to simple rules, they are survivable, adaptable, and in a suitable environment, invincible.

As Robb summarizes it:

... the behavior of these insurgencies as a whole seems to learn, achieve goals, and engage in self-preservation, despite the vast differences in how individual groups are organized. (p. 126)

One could dismiss all of this as speculation except for a couple of facts:

* Much of the software industry and a lot of the Internet (e.g., the Wikipedia) operate using the open source model today
* Nothing else seems to explain the success of the people attacking our forces in Iraq

To construct this model, Robb employs a number of concepts that may be new to people unfamiliar with modern systems theory: close-coupled systems, self-organization, emergent properties (particularly "intelligence"), stigmergy, and the concept of complexity arising from simple processes. He also introduces new tools for understanding how systems work in the modern world: open source insurgency, global virtual states, superempowerment, systempunkts, and "black swans."

These are all powerful ideas and not in the least theoretical as Robb illustrates with events from the evening news. Whether you agree with Robb's end position or his solutions, these are concepts that are needed to describe why today's world is different from that of the Cold War.

As the framework for his solution, Robb proposes a modern version of survivalism. We won't all be holed up in cabins in the woods, a la the Unabomber. But if we are living in a world that is "tightly coupled," where a glitch in the power system in Ohio can cascade into a massive outage involving 50,000,000 people along the entire East Coast, then the solution must involve some loosening.

Robb's general strategy is to improve resilience by any means possible. I could imagine, for example, that instead of building new power plants that, along with their distribution systems, are vulnerable to disruption, the government provides market incentives to improve resilience. The government could increase subsidies to utilities and require all of them to buy electricity from homeowners during the day and sell it at reduced rates at night. As more people add power generation capability to their houses - solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, whatever - resilience improves. This may not be the most efficient solution, but in the age of open source insurgency, too much efficiency can be dangerous.

Robb makes a compelling case that this model will also work for national security. It is certainly working very well for the groups we are fighting.

Whether you agree with his particular solutions is not important. However, the pieces of the problem are real and we are going to have to create ways to deal with open source conflict - an intelligence that emerges through the dynamic interaction of religious fanatics, street gangs, criminal cartels, and at times even other states - or face a series of disruptions that will severely degrade our quality of life.

I'm giving 'Brave New War' five stars not because it's engaging and fascinating (which it is), but because it's an important book. The media rarely addresses the dramatic changes now underway in military conflict with anything deeper than good-versus-evil jingoism. But here, Robb explores the drivers that are reshaping global warfare and the decentralized networks (digital and physical) that make this possible. The author provides an entirely new toolset for understanding why the world is changing and why familiar solutions no longer work.

This book does not pull its punches. Some may be upset by its matter-of-fact presentation of guerrilla strategies, but it is precisely this type of honest analysis that's needed if we're going to build a sustainable civilization. If you live in the modern world, then you need to read this book. If you are in command of an army, then you especially need to read this book.

Robb's done some excellent analysis on his blog, which I am a frequent visitor. I looked forward to this book in which expands on many of the points previous hit upon in the blog.

He did a good job of describing some of the tactical changes in warfare and how small loosely linked groups are all working towards a common outcome; that of creating an on-going state of chaos which eventually weakens and undermines the state. While his prose is good in this regard, he did not make the case that this is some type of 'Brave New War'. Rather it smells like typical guerrilla warfare with better tools (telecommunications).

Ultimately, it is on this point that the book loses its energy. After putting forth a framework for open source insurgency, Robb takes scenario after scenario and forces his explanation into this narrow framework. In several cases it is apparent he is fitting square pegs into round holes. The book loses some credibility in these cases.

I liked it though, and found it well worth the money. However, Brave New War does not go into the category of grand strategic thinking. Rather, it is a solid look at some of the emerging tactics of what others have called World War IV.



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Brave New War by John Robb is a book that was really written for two audiences.

The first is the relatively small number of specialists in military affairs, serious students of geopolitics and bloggers who are already avid readers of Robb's Global Guerillas site. For them, Brave New War is a systematic and footnoted exposition of the theories of conflict and "dangerous ideas" that Robb discusses daily on his blog. They will be entertained and challenged by the same analysis that makes them return again and again to Global Guerillas to debate John Robb and one another.

The second audience is composed of everyone else. Brave New War is simply going to blow them away.

Brave New War is a tightly written, fast-paced work on the emergent nature of warfare, conflict global society with a decidedly dystopian take. In a mixture of original ideas and synthesis of the works of other cutting edge "thought leaders", Robb, a platform designer and former mission commander for USAF Counterterrorism operations, draws analogies from the tech world to explain changes in warfare in the age of globalization. Calling the Iraq War " the modern equivalent of the Spanish Civil War" Robb highlights a robust number of critical concepts in Brave New War that are, in his view, altering international and subnational conflict, including:

Bazaar of Violence
Black Swans
Brittle Security
Dynamc Decentralized Resilience
Emergent Intelligence
Fourth Generation Warfare
Guerilla Entrepreneurs
Global Guerillas
Market-States
Minimalist Platforms
Open-Source Warfare
Plausible Promises
Primary Loyalties
Stigmergic Systems
Superempowered Groups
Systempunkt
The Long Tail of Warfare
Urban Takedowns

Some of these concepts are Robb's, some belong to others and in Brave New War you will find citations for figures as diverse as William Lind, Chris Anderson, Nicholas Nassim Taleb, Valdis Krebs, Eric S. Raymond, Thomas P.M. Barnett, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, Philip Bobbitt, Moises Naim and David A. Deptula. One of the great strengths of Brave New War is Robb's capacity as an analyst and theorist to apply the revelations of research into network theory to warfare, and to conceptualize armed political conflict within the framework of platforms and ecosystems. This gives Robb's arguments a degree of horizontal "interconnectedness" seldom seen in works on military affairs ( except, as Robb himself points out, in the work of his frequent online sparring partner, Thomas Barnett).

Robb is betting heavily on increasing levels of global instability and systemic breakdown as "feedback" from global guerillas overloads "the system" and disrupts globalization. It is this orientation toward discerning the worst-case scenarios and descent into entropy that will raise hackles amongst some readers, though Robb ultimately predicts a strengthening of systemic resilience and a burst of innovation as a result of these tribulations.

Brave New War is the must read book of 2007.

This is an interesting little book. I think that it may promise more than it delivers, but its lesson is right on. The Foreword relates a key part of the book's thesis (page ix): "[Examples] involve the idea of turning the complexity and power of a developed modern economy from strengths to vulnerabilities."

For one thing, terrorists can use relatively inexpensive techniques to create huge problems. For instance, it cost al-Qaeda about $500,000 for the 9/11 attacks and cost the American economy about $500 billion worth of damage--in the author's words (page x) "a million-to-one payoff ratio."

Other examples: cheap techniques (explosives) have cost Iraq millions upon millions of dollars in lost oil revenue, as pipelines are destroyed and income lost. The book itself is about (page xiv) "rapid chaotic and unexpected events. . . . 'black swans--events so different from what we know, so unpredictable and hidden by uncertainty, that they are impossible to predict with accuracy."

The book talks about the ability of terrorists to learn and use this learning to advantage against state actors. They tend to be more nimble and this provides an advantage. So, complex globalization presents an attractive target for simple responses by terrorist organizations.

An interesting argument. However, there are some questions that arise because of recent developments in Iraq. Robb believes that the antipathy of a variety of actors to the United States is doom. Whether or not the "surge" ends up working, though, it is clear that in the short run many Iraqis who formerly fought against Americans are now working with them against, for example, al-Qaeda. Will this last? or will the formerly antagonistic and currently cooperative groups just outwait Americans? Who knows? But the current situation (November, 2007) suggests a more fluid situation than the author depicts.

Only time will tell the outcomes in Iraq and against terrorists worldwide. The book has an interesting and even powerful logic. But we must wait to see what the evidence tells us in the future.

This is the first real text on next generation warfare designed for the general population and it sets the bar high for following acts. It is smart, it is a short read, and it will change your thinking. It also embraces the new paradigm of authorship, in that Robb, by providing the logic for his thinking in the book and tracing new developments and specific examples online, is able to add value to both his paper and electronic streams. For the first time the leading war theorist is directly accessible to his customers. A sign of the times I suppose. Robb understands this and makes engaging in both print and web an incredible experience.

This is very important, because at its very core, the book is a catalyst, a conversation starter, a first but pivotal step in assessing and adapting paradigms. The burdens of security are increasingly being off-loaded onto the shoulders of the average individual and those around him. Robb wants us to understand and embrace this change. He understands that there will be as many different approaches to resiliency as there are groups involved, and so he offers us the basics, a platform, to do with what we will.

We would all do well to understand the logic and the framework John Robb offers in Brave New War, because our enemies have proven, without a doubt, that they do.

This is one of the best books that I have read on how wars will be different in the future and how terrorist groups have evolved and will continue to evolve. His blog is, Global Guerillas, which is his basic term for terrorist networks. Warning: you will learn a lot.

True, he does make a lot of predictions and who knows if they will hold up over time? But it is pretty different from what else is being written out there and should provide you with interesting talking points. And if it makes you act, and get others on board, all the better in Robb's view.

His conclusions are pretty bleak: This era of Globalization where tons of open ended software (e.g. Linux, Wikipedia) have improved the quality of items and access to information also applies to terrorist groups too. They don't need to be big, in fact they are most effective in smaller groups (7-8 guys) or medium sized ones. If they get over 150 people, they usually suffer from internal fighting and split off anyway though, these loosely coordinated networks can pull off more on a geographic scale. We see this in Iraq, where there is not one big monolithic group fighting us, they are a patchwork of different groups with different motivations but with one important goal: make the state chaotic. He emphasizes the term of their fighting-style, called, Fourth Generation War. They have been using open-ended technology against our troops and Iraqi allies with deadly results. Just look at the evolution of the IED.

For Robb the sovereign state isn't going the way of the dinosaurs, but we will see most of the countries of the world become very decentralized in the future. For Robb in the USA, the Dept. of Homeland Security will be the first casualty. They cannot spend money to protect all areas as a city can or a group of concerned citizens can (look at the Minute men). Also Robb thinks the border fence with Mexico will be as effective as the Maginot Line was in WWII, but I would like to point out that the West Bank Barrier has been regarded as a success in Israel strategically . . . . but I guess not politically.

He uses history as his guide and talks about how Lawrence of Arabia's goal in WWI was not to destroy all of the Ottoman Turkish rail lines. If they did that, the Turks would have used other shipping routes and the troops who guarded the rails would be deployed somewhere closer to Lawrence's bases of support. In this Arab Revolt, they merely sought system disruption, delay things, cost the Turks money, but don't destroy it. Make them unable to wage war on a full-scale level. The same is happening in Iraq with attacks on oil pipelines and electricity grids. Interrupt; cost the new Iraqi gov't billions in lost oil revenue on a certain day or two, but don't stop it. Because that would result in total war, not to terrorists' advantage.

He believes the next attack in the US or Europe, etc. will be aimed at the power grid: electricity, oil, shipping ports, etc. to disrupt the supply. America already having a trade and federal budget deficit, how much longer could we cope with another disruption?

What solutions does Robb give? Security will be more decentralized with cities possibly relying on privatized security forces and more energy independent initiatives, like your neighbors being able to produce (and sell) their electricity. So, if my friends and I in Hoboken wanted to buy a condo, we could throw solar panels on a building. If it got big enough, we could create a generating station for the whole block and make some money. The block would have people volunteer to guard the station from vandals. That way our block would be immune from a systems disruption on a main target. He uses the example of the blackout in the Northeast in 2003, to emphasize that our energy can no longer be centralized. A terrorist could spend a mere thousand dollars and get back a payoff of a billion dollars (the estimated cost of that one day blackout to the economic life of the area).

A final interesting prediction Robb has is that by 2016, China will have big problems, not be the superpower that everybody expects. This is in his final section: "Globalization will end Globalization." He predicts that because pirates, drug cartels, mob groups are so profitable now and (in this free trade era) will only get more powerful, that eventually barriers (in forms of more regulated trade) will be erected by many governments and the Chinese with their growing economy and thirst for very expensive oil and trade will begin to crack. They will defragment as the provinces will begin to assert more control and China will "finally revert to its historical norm: fragmentation." (Could be good news for Tibet). . . .

Worthy reading and his bold predictions are worth it enough. However, he is not an optimist. He believes the way we are fighting this new war is wrong and unless we get up to the terrorists' intelligence levels, we will see systems disruption on a massive scale that can seriously threaten our economy more than what happened on 9/11.

If Robb is wrong, then this book will eventually fall out of print in the next ten years. If he is right, it will be out in many new editions and could become a manifesto on how to adapt to this changing world.

John Robb's perspectives on the status quo of warfare are only one small part of the much larger story to which he introduces us. He demonstrates an understanding of the implications of globalization, he touches on the growing impact of technology and he shows us what has been happening in Iraq from another vantage point.

His simple review of classic warfare provides us the basic historical understanding, which is needed by the non-military mind to fully appreciate his perspectives and concerns. His discussions are punctuated with a broad mix of references [Barabasi, Liddell Hart, Rashid] and several examples of how effective simple acts of warfare have been and can be.

Robb hits his stride when he 'rethinks security' and couples natural and manmade disasters, which are fraught with the same uncertainties, to show us all how vulnerable we actually are. His frank analysis of the inability of the nation-states and the bureaucracies to cope with terrorism in an interconnected world and his ten-year projections are unnerving. Let's hope that he has held the attention of more than enough people to take the reality of modern terror head on, to dislodge the vested interests, to restructure our ideas of personal security collectively and to reshape our global futures.

Bob Magnant is the author of The Last Transition...- a fact-based novel about Iran, the Middle East, war and terrorism.

Mr Robb's book lays out important facts that many in power will find hard to accept. The key to "security" is not body scanners and corpulent government agencies, but communities, businesses, and individuals becoming more resilient to the failures of the gigantic networks that permeate our society. Being reliant on these networks and systems makes us more vulnerable, not less, to 4th Generation Warfare.

All in all, a very good book that should not go ignored by our national and state, as well as local, governments. I have complete faith, however, that this book will be ignored.