Customer Reviews

A Brief History of Tomorrow

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Beginning with a history of the last few hundred years attempts at predicting the future, the successes and failures. The failure to predict feminism, inroads against racism and homophobia. The predictions of moon/Mars colonisation and flying cars among others. Then an overview of recent and current predictions for the future, how accurate they are likely to be in light of the history of futurism.

There are chapters on 'the way we weren't', 'is futurology bunk?', 'environment', 'human body', 'mind', 'home and work', 'leisure', 'travel' and a conclusion. This covers the key areas for futurism. The author makes the point that predicting the future is always fraught with peril because so many movements, ideas and inventions have come out of nowhere eg. electricity, feminism, theory of relativity, quantum theory, the internet etc.

It is generally an optimistic book despite the facts mentioned that the gap between the rich and poor is increasing and the large amount of people living close to starvation, he assumes that technological fixes will reduce hunger. There isn't much faith in the majority consensus of climate scientists that global warming is a serious problem, I assume he hasn't read enough of the relevant information. The author comes close to endorsing the views of Fukuyama that capitalism is the complete social system that the human race has been heading towards, but he is too realistic to totally endorse these views. There is a lot of interest, but for sheer futuristic leaps of imagination it doesn't quite match ' Great Mambo Chicken And The Transhuman Condition' by Ed Regis. However there are some important points made, the entertainment is kept at a premium and there is plenty of food for thought.

This is a real dark horse of a book. It seemed kind of slim and I wasn't expecting much, but, wow! Not only is it extremely well-researched, but it's beautifully written, and has real wisdom. I can't agree with the reviewer who criticized it as rambling. On the contrary, it's taut and focused, quite brilliant at times, especially (and I also disagree with the previous critic here) when Margolis deals with environmental matters. I work in this field, and I think Margolis's is one of the fairest, most balanced and wisest assessments I've come across. Highly recommended to anyone looking for a serious book about the future that's not a geeky bore.

I've read quite a few of the current crop of pop futurology, and this is definitely one of the best. Instead of the empty hype and hot air I've often found elsewhere, this is a surprisingly sensible, well-researched survey of the major themes of 21st century technology: biotech, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, etc. And unlike many other books in the genre, it also takes into account economics, politics, and the unpredictabilty of human nature -- something of a blind spot even for giants such as Arthur C. Clarke. My only criticism is a lack of discussion of how all these various trends might combine (for instance, it would seem obligatory to include a critique of Vinge's singularity theory). Otherwise though, top-notch.

I was hopeful picking up this book. I was hoping for a book that took a cold eye on past speculations of futurology, and dissects them. It'd be interesting to see how Alvin Toffler stands up with time, or some debunking of predictions of business trends. Instead, we get a series of rambling essays taking a few factoids and random observations, on which Margolis drones on for pages and pages. He fails to coherently state his point or argue for it, instead going off on unrelated tangents. This book really needed serious editing. The section on the environment was just woeful. I'm not sure whether Margolis has a scientific or technical education. He totally fails to even address the science behind environmental concerns. He instead indulges in what can only be called arm-waving dismissals of "catastrophism". Unfortunately, there is such a thing as environmental science, and it is insufficient to dismiss the concerns raised by it based on political ideology, as Margolis does. There will one day be a good book written on futurology and trend prediction, hopefully taking a good laugh at the bad predictions, analyzing those that were correct. It would also explore the psychological dimensions of futurology - is it just projecting of dreams and fears onto the future, the same as we slant our view of the past? Based on this analysis, we could make and judge predictions better. Unfortunately, this book isn't that book.

That is the question of much of mankind. Jonathan Margolis starts out by finding out what past people thought the future would be like, if they got it right or wrong and WHY they got it right or wrong. After looking at the works of authors, such as H.G. Wells, Arthur C. Clarke, Jules Verne and Edward Bellamy, plus scientists, professors and specialists he dives into what people believe now. Chapter after chapter deals with global warming, ice ages, pollution, advanced medicine, genetic engineering, the internet, robots, e-commerce, smart kitchens, cloning, politics, space travel, flying cars, airships, teleportation, time travel AND aliens.
Then he lists his own ideas about future trends, some of which seem bland, others seem to be very reasonable, and some seem weird. For example, he suggests global warming might just fade away (which it might), 'Real' or 'Natural' will always be valued over 'virtual' (and I'm sure it will cost more), that aircars would be dangerous within the city streetscape(true), and that we don't have to worry about things like asteroid impacts (just because he figures it will happen to a part of the Earth that nobody cares about).
But the whole book is about the fact that futurology can be bland, reasonable and weird all at the same time. Don't take him seriously, but enjoy the book. Great for science fiction fans or want-to-be authors of science fiction!
Go airships!

Margolis' wit, insight and opinion may present a challenge to more than a few readers but, for my money, this book is an entertaining and thought-provoking journey from statistics and observation to logical and wise speculation. Buy it!