South Africa's political economy continues to revolve around an odd combination of new political power (and patronage) without money and old money without power, each needing the other to advance its interests. This is structurally disposed to advance corruption and nepotism, which has become an 'incestuous relationship'. This is the theme of Alec Russel's important new book [elsewehere, the book is sold as: "After Mandela: The Battle for the Soul of South Africa, Hutchinson", London, 2009].
Alec Russel was a correspondent of the London Financial Times, who first come to South Africa in 1994 and whose interviews and on-the-spot reports makes his one of the more illuminating of the books named above. His focus, not surprisingly, is on the economics of the current transition process and he presents much in the way of statistical evidence to bolster his arguments. In the end, he can be described as a "pessimist". His "solutions" to some of South Africa's economic woes may be summed up by a 'social liberal' philosophy where a 'regulated market' predominates.
At the onset of 'Liberation/Freedom", a new African kleptocracy was being born while "Die Stem" was still hanging in the air! The rest is history, as they say. Sleaze, undercover operations and character assinations (and 'real' ones) became part of the ANC's modus operandi in power. "Ideology" and the once professed goals of poverty amelioration and a "Better Life for All" (ANCs election slogan of 1994), was soon pushed aside as monetary "self-interest", or plain "greed", took its place as an (African) nationalist bourgeoisie was simply replacing an old (Afrikaner) nationalist bourgeoisie at the helm of the state.
And for the common man/woman/family on the street there has been only slight improvement: "Between 1994 and 2007 the ANC built 2.6 million houses. The number of homes with electricity doubled to 8.8 million. By 2007, over 87 per cent of people had access to clean running water. As of March 2008, 14.1 million people in South Africa were benefiting from the largest social welfare programme in sub-Saharan Africa" [Alec Russel, p. 93, 2009].
Now, although there has been a substantial improvement in African housing, however, the mass building of low-cost RDP houses ["kennels"] being built by the ANC: "were smaller and of poorer quality than the houses built by the apatrheid government. Under apartheid [the people] had fought against the building of five-hundred-square-foot houses. 'They were an insult. Now the [ANC] government is building us even smaller ones'" [Russel, p.95]. Residents complain about inferior, substandard housing and of a huge demand, despite attempts at the the 'upgrading' of many squatter camps: tarred roads, proper sanitation and electricity provision, however patchy, uneven and insufficient.
There has been noticeable slides in the standards in public health and education (which already started at a low level). Life expectancy has fallen sharply among Africans and South Africa has actually fallen backwards in the UNDP Human Development Index.
The huge burgeoning squatter camps outside most urban core regions are a volatile mix of rural internal migrants, foreign refugees and small-scale entrepreneurs ["street vendors"] with the occasional flaring-up of so-called xenophobic slaughter of 'the usual suspects' by necklacing, burning down of shacks and revenge killings. Much of this remains hidden and hence unreported. Township residents are genuinely angry at the lack of better housing, sewrage, schooling and roads and the huge increase in crime and lalessness. There is little sence of civic responsibility or even of the need to obey the law - a Wild West scenario that overspills the squatter camps into the more respectable middle class suburbs where the 'pickings' are greater.
The man-in-the-street bribes policemen and Home Affairs officials and bureaucrats; makes illegal telephone, water and electricity connections; refuses to pay for television licenses or rates. It is a culture of non-payment for services that has a long history in the townships. Steps to reverse this trend have not been very successful.
Township citizens defend his/her 'right' to do so by accusing fingers pointed at 'The Fat-Cat Politicians' "who are openly stealing", the culture of 'enrich yourselves' of the new black elite who have physically moved from the overcrowded, dangerous ghettos and of the 'culture of entitlement' that followed on the post-apartheid dispensation.
It is unlikely that Jacob Zuma and his erstwhile Leftist allies can change this situation. The slogan: "Phansi ngo Mbeki, Phambili ngo Zuma" ["Down with Mbeki, Up with Zuma"] had become popular with the downfall of the former unpopular, defeated and deposed President Thabo Mbeki in 2007. Little has been heard of the latter who once spoke boldly of an "African Renaissance" and an African Inititive to Africa's problems. His seminal role in initiating and closing the Arms Deal is still to be investigated. Hopefully he will not escape the juridical net, where powerful political forces, as described by Feinstein (2009) and Crawford-Browne (2007), and F.A. Johnston (2009) are at play to block a proper investigation.
The ANC contained many things: principled heroism, Stalinist appartchicks, political opportunists and plain thuggery. The poisoning of Thami Zulu [real name Muziwakhe Ngwenya, known as "TZ"] was not an isolated incident. With many competing ideological influences, political and social forces to balance and appease it will be a stormy and petulant period in South African politics we will now witness. ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema, backed up by Zwelinzima Vavi, chief of the Congress of Trade Unions, two of Zuma's strongest backers, have recently called for the "nationalisation" of the mining industry (they possibly mean its total "statization"), sparking off a debate that is as old as the Freedom Charter of 1956. But "Politics in Command!" eshews such serious discussion, where "quick-fix" solutions and "slogans" are the order of the day. Reason and rationality will be the first casualty.
The South African economy the next. The South African economy is likely to shed half a million jobs in 2009, especially in manufacturing and mining. January 2009 alone witnessed a 36% crash in new car sales and a 50% production cut, the worst ever recorded, according to the National Association of Auto Manufacturers. The anticipated rise in port activity has also reversed, with a 29% annualised fall in early 2009. House repossessions increased by 52% in early 2009 from a year earlier, as house prices are down 11% with much greater falls ahead. Most minerals are 70% off their peak of a year ago. The stock market lost nearly 50% last year.
But on the other side of the coin the media speaks of a 'new Zulu kleptocracy', of the Nkandla Mafia (Zuma's homelands base in the rural Midlands of Natal), businesmen based in KwaZulu Natal who hope that the State's partonage and reward system will now 'trickle down' towards Zulu's and not Xhosas only this time. We will see! The South African police measured more than 30,000 'gatherings' - 15 or more people in some form of protest, for which permission is typically applied for a week ahead of time -- from 2004-08. Of these, 10 per cent generated 'unrest'.
The centralization of power under the President's office was well under way under Mbeki and now the Big Man has asssumed power, can we now expect a corresponding development of "African Despotism" as the ANC struggles to maintain political hegemony in a disintegrating social environment, through thuggery, authoritarianism and a semi-militarist dictatorship?
The South African police measured more than 30,000 "gatherings'' - 15 or more people in some form of protest, for which permission is typically applied for a week ahead of time - from 2004-08. Of these, 10 per cent generated "unrest''. At the time of writing [24 June 2009], there have been renewed unrest with demonstrations against "non-delivery" and police heavy-handed action: "Police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at township protesters demanding improved services and more jobs on Wednesday, in one of the biggest challenges to President Jacob Zuma since he took office. Thousands marched in a show of anger, saying they would escalate demonstrations if local officials from the African National Congress failed to deliver swiftly on promises to provide jobs, housing, and medical care. Some burned tyres and hurled stones at police in armoured vehicles, who responded with tear gas. The violence increased uncertainty after a wave of strikes in Africa's biggest economy, where Zuma took office in May." [Mail&Guardian Online, 23 July 2009]
As a bemused and bewildered Tata Nelson Mandela celebrated his 91st birthday recently, surrounded by the leaders of Zuma's New Team of the ANC, he might just have been wondering: "Now just where is South Africa heading with these guys?".
