Customer Reviews

Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win (Outlooks)

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To knowledge seekers, the ability to understand and beat a system is the entire game. In this book, Skiena describes how he and some of his students wrote a computer program to win money betting on professional jai alai matches. Along the way, he explains the origins of the game and some of the basic rules, the fundamental bets that can be made as well as the meaning of statements such as pari-mutuel betting. His program does work well, in that he quadruples his money in a short time. Once that is done, he gives the money to a university charity, hoping to make his money from writing this book.
The fact that such a program could be created is not surprising. Jai-alai is a sport where individuals compete one-on-one or in teams of two, and the betting patterns determine the payoffs. It is much easier to simulate these types of matchups and predict the outcome than it is for team games. Baseball managers have been doing such modeling for years. If my memory serves me correctly, the first to do it in major league baseball was Davey Johnson, who kept detailed statistics on all pitcher-batter matchups. All of his decisions concerning who to put up to bat were then based on playing the percentages. That is essentially what Skiena does, although with a different twist. Pari-mutuel betting is where those who wager are betting against each other, so the patterns of wagering determine the payoffs. The patterns of betting are also factored into his predictions. These conditions make it possible for someone to make money creating such a system, but only as long as no one else is doing it. If others begin to use the same system, then the players are betting against each other, destroying the opportunity to make a profit. Therefore, his very act of publishing this book probably means that his system can no longer be used to win at jai-alai betting.
This is an excellent example of how basic mathematical modeling is done. Use data of previous results to form a model of what has happened in order to predict what will happen. Skiena writes with a wit and rigor that is rarely seen in mathematics. Very little mathematics background is needed in order to understand the explanations of the behavior of the program and why it works.
I found this book so interesting that I stayed up very late finishing it. It reads like a novel, but teaches you a lot about mathematics. Instructors in mathematical modeling and computer programming can find many interesting ideas for classroom exercises in it. As long as no one takes it too seriously, it is all in good, clean fun.

Jai-alai is possibly the most beautiful and exciting sport in the world, full of fast-paced, amazingly athletic action, and you can actually bet on it! A dog race takes less than a minute, most horse races less than two, and then you stand around for half an hour waiting for the next one. In jai-alai, you get less than ten minutes between games, and the action-packed games themselves can go on for twenty or more - which can be, if you have a bet riding on the outcome, an eternity. Jai-alai is also the most difficult of all sports to handicap, due to a fiendish scoring system called "Spectacular Seven." It took me years to figure this thing out, and for years I thought I was the only one in the world who'd done it. Now Steve Skiena, Professor of Computer Science at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, has gone and published a book that tells everyone how to figure it out. I'd love to pan this book, to discourage everyone from reading it and learning most of my precious winning tricks, but it's just too darned good.
Almost the only flaw I find in the book is that Skiena is not as maniacal in expressing his love of the incredibly beautiful sport of jai-alai as I would have been. He comes close, and I certainly hope this book inspires more people to experience this amazing spectacle first-hand. There is nothing like it in all the sporting world, and although it has been broadcast on television at times, it really has to be seen in person to be appreciated. A single performance of jai-alai has as much action crammed into four hours or so as an entire season of football: all the drama, all the farce; the highs, the lows, the blown calls by the referees, the rowdy fans. I could watch it every day, never bet a dime and still be thrilled. Skiena does manage to convey the excitement of a game, especially when a bet is riding on it, as the action unfolds point by hard-fought, critically important point. Unlike baseball, no catch or throw in a jai-alai game is ever "routine," and when your team is at game point, you can find yourself not breathing for surprisingly long periods of time. And the acrobatics of the players can be astonishing - I have seen men jump their own height up a sheer wall, and then seemingly stand there, defying gravity, waiting for the ball to come to them. Willy Mays couldn't do it better, nor even Michael J.
But betting is the name of this game, and is examined in the book in scrupulous detail. Using fairly easy-to-understand mathematical methods, with a few equations, but nothing that requires a rocket scientist to understand, Skiena shows the reader how to take apart the game of jai-alai and see what makes it tick. He explains the scoring system, which I once likened to the Devil's work for its devious unfairness, and proceeds to analyze exactly *how* it is unfair, and how to take advantage of those quirks. And he does it more efficiently than I ever did, analyzing not only the game itself, but the way money can be made on it by managing your bets properly.
I cannot fault any of his mathematical or computer-programming details, since I have used pretty near all of them myself. I used a different programming language, and slightly different methods of analysing the data - for instance, I never bothered with charting all the pay-outs for various bets. Nor have I kept scrupulous track of my own bets, save in those few instances when I won enough to have to pay the tax-man his share. But the methods he gives are utterly sound, and will work. I can testify to this from personal experience.
Since none of the math and little of the stuff about jai-alai is new to me, I took my main pleasure in the book from reading Skiena's personal views on jai-alai, and a handful of his personal observations - I wish there'd been more - on the life of a mathematican. Best of all were his pointed insights into the nature of mathematics in general, and probability and statistics in particular. I wish he would concentrate these into a single essay and send it to every major newspaper or magazine whose motto is "the public has a right to know." If the public has a "right to know" every miniscule detail about certain stains on a certain blue dress, or the foolish shenanigans of a certain Congressman who has more libido than his tiny brain knows what to do with, then they surely have a "right to know" Skiena's de-mystifying explanation of what makes probability and statistics tick. Considering that these are two of the most misunderstood and misreported items in the entire repertoire of today's newspapers and magazines, at least their editors and reporters should read this book.
Skiena ranges over a variety of topics, and demonstrates how things that seem entirely different turn out to be related quite closely. He also examines and dispells many of the myths that surround both jai-alai and mathematics. Yet he never gets bogged down in equations, or fails to keep things clear and to the point.
In short, buy this book, and read it, and think about it, and if you are anywhere near a fronton, go and see some jai-alai games. Just don't bet on the team wearing stripes - those are the referees.

This is a fascinating book. It captures exactly the excitement of starting out in programming and working on a project in your spare-time simply because the project seems like a fun, cool thing to write, such as a program for predicting the outcome of football games. Even if you don't come from a mathematics/programming background, I think you'll find the book very interesting. Chapter 4, "The Impact of the Internet", alone, is worth the cost of the book.

This book gives an accessible account of how a Computer Science professor (with too much time on his hands?) decided to try to come up with a winning system for betting on Jai-Alai. While this book will peek a reader's interest in Jai-Alai, the real genius of this book is how it ties together computer science, probability, statistics, other topics in mathematics, the Internet, computer security, and little bits of physics, economics and finance, together via the use of real-life application: a computerized Jai-Alai betting system.

If you are a novice in any one of those fields mentioned, you will love this book. Prof Skiena gives a highly readable and amusing account of his experiences and how they relate to computer science, probability, etc. This books gives an excellent introduction and overview of the various topics mentioned above.

If you are experienced in any one of the fields mentioned you will also love this book. For example, this is a great way for a computer science or math student to see how their classroom learning can be applied in the 'real-world.'

Bottom-line: I LOVE THIS BOOK!

Steven Skeina, Calculated Bets (Cambridge University Press, 2001)

The first thing you need to know about Calculated Bets is that it is, by far, the most readable book you will ever pick up from Cambridge University Press. One wonders, in fact, how Skeina got past the stuffiness factor that distinguishes so much academic publishing to get this book released. A distinguished university putting out a book on, for all intents and purposes, building a system to bet jai-alai? And yet, I know it exists, as I have held it in my hands and read it.

And a good read it is, too. Skeina takes a look at what may be America's most overlooked and underrated spectator sport and how he created a computer program to automatically bet on jai-alai that actually beat the game (and the book's major failing, in my opinion, is that he didn't get farther into the actual algorithms he used), and uses it as an introduction to jai-alai and an introduction to theoretical programming at the same time. It's not a book for programming junkies as, as I alluded to, you're not going to get anything even remotely resembling hard code. It's also not really a book for handicapping devotees, because while Skeina does talk briefly about the basics of the stuff he plugged into those algorithms, he's going to leave you to do all the real work. And yet, despite both of these things, I loved this book. It may just be the novelty of reading something non-fiction from a University press that actually didn't require having a dictionary next to me (I should note here that much of what I read from university presses is linguistic and literary theory translated from obscure Eastern European languages, and poetry that might as well have been written in those languages and remains untranslated). Skeina has produced an enjoyable piece of work that seems almost marketless. That is a shame, because it's a fun book, and well worth reading.

It's an enjoyable read. Pretty light on mathematics and software engineering though. You can easily get through this book in an evening or two and refresh some of your thoughts on modeling and statistics. Steven Skiena keeps a web site ...that's worth a peek and has reading material on this work there. Wish the book had shipped with a CD though so you could play around with his model and simulate a few games of Jai Alai for fun.

You have to be sad! You have to be mad *! But buy this book.

A week or two ago I wandered into the Miami Jai-Alai fronton. I went looking for humanity in a world of computers, slots, lotteries and branded products. I found an alternative universe - seedy but dignified, dying but full of life and concealing an unexpected riddle. The riddle of the Spectacular-Seven.

Reading Steven's blandly, and perhaps deceptively, titled book I realized I was not alone in pondering this riddle. Steven's book is a heartening tale of the kind of obsession that can take hold of the over-educated in this age of desk-top computer power. Abuse of tenure? Not at all. This is a beautiful exposition following every thread of an unlikely conundrum. Just my kind of entertainment.

However, without visiting a fronton for yourself, you will never begin to understand the real alure of Jai-Alai. The book's drive seems to be to reduce the atmosphere, drama and history of Jai-Alai to abstract numerals and dial-up modem scripts. A case of a university boffin applying his massive resources to strip the last fews dollars from the poor and dispossessed. No, I think not.

The charm of Jai-Alai is the effortless and graceful way in which the denizens of the fronton cope with the bizarre complexities of the game. The cheerful banter, the cat calls, the thrill of the game and the cuban coffee. And the rumors of undeclared injuries and new cescas.

If Steven's book can inspire you to hang down at the fronton - wonderful, let ' s join a Jai-Alai rennaissance. If math, stats and cash are your only interest you won't be disappointed, but you will be missing the point.

*Mad is Queen's English for crazy, not irate.

Buy this book! (Disclaimer: I am a friend of the author and he gave me a free copy of this book. He did not solicit a review from me and he does not know that I am writing one, although I guess he will find out sooner or later).

I procrastinated in reading this book. It did not sound very exciting. While I have degrees in Computer Science and Business, the title sounded as if the book would be a dense technical treatise on the subject. It was not. I read it in one (long) day.

Steve has written a lively book on Jai-Alai, mathematical modeling, probability, statistics, gambling and betting and makes it both interesting and instructive at the same time. I enjoyed reading it and learned a lot at the same time.

I couldn't care less about Jai-lai. It is simply the background the author uses to take us on a journey that wraps gambling, odds, statistics, computers, and mathematical modeling into a totally engrossing book.

Well written, educational, and fun.. I cannot recommend this book enough for anyone interested in computers, math, and beating the odds.

This book documents a simple computer program written by the author to exploit statistical advantages made through the Spectacular Seven scoring system for jai alai. The book is a well written summary of the author's interest in the game which lead him to this project. Like the author, I was an avid jai alai fan in the late 80s before the player's strike destroyed the game. The author matched his interest in jai alai and programming to lead graduate students to write subroutines for a Monte Carlo simulation computer program which won him money before he claims to have abandoned the project. The author is a gifted writer for an otherwise dry text as he keeps reasonable amount of humor and style which maintains your interest.