Customer Reviews

Certain to Win

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I write reviews rarely, and only on occasion when I feel strongly enough about something and want to make sure others are aware of it. Despite the high ratings and raving reviews, this book disappoints. I bought this book because I want to learn how to apply OODA model to high stress situations where decision must be made. This is frequently the case in the business world. I expected the author to at least dive into each of the O-O-D-A step, draw its application in business terms, and provide case studies on when OODA was applies correctly and incorrectly. Unfortunately, that is not how the book is structured.

The book lacks organization, or word differently, it does not "start with the end in mind". Instead of start the book with OODA, the book dives straight into historical events, most of which are military based. Of the time when business organization are mentioned (e.g, Southwest, Dell), the author never draw the parallel or explain how the strategic concept applies. If this is a book about business, then at least explain how Southwest or Dell adopted the strategy correctly, or how Chrysler or Enron did otherwise. As of page 100, there isn't a single business case study.

The first 100 pages of the book, out of 187 pages, is used to convince you the validity of Boyd's principles, with the first paragraph on page 100 stating "In the previous chapters, I tried to convince you that the physical characteristics, such as....... do not guarantee victory in any highly competitive situation...". Unfortunately, I do not need to be convinced. This is not a common book shelved in bookstores. If the audience has to actively seek out of the book, then they have already been convinced the validity of the OODA loop, and is seeking for real world application. This means more than 50% of the book could have been better used.

Another distracting characteristic of the book is the author's writing style. The content flows more like a dictation as if someone recorded a free flow lecture and typed it up. The writing style is verbose. Paragraphs do not start or end with a point and often goes off on a tangent, and does a poor job, if at all, tie back to the original thought. The author often seems to be talking to himself. An example:

"Chapter III described four qualities, with roots down through history, that help an organization run at fast OODA tempo. The first of these is unity, cohesion, oneness, or, as I shall use in the rest of this book, mutual trust between the members of the organization. The German word Einheit conveys all these meanings, and I'll use it occasionally as well...".

The problem is, if the goal is to convey the importance of "mutual trust", then I already got it. I do not need to know it's also known as unity, cohesion or oneness. It's also unclear on why the German word "Einheit" is important enough to be introduced only to be used "occasionally" when it's already been explained as "mutual trust" - does English not have an equivalent word or something close enough that we much introduce a foreign word? This writing style is consistent through out the book, making it difficult to identify the key points and stay on track.

To be objective, different people respond to different writing style. My intent of writing this review is to provide some warning to those with similar learning approach. The raving reviews and high praises did not reflect this aspect of the book.

"Certain to Win" is an interpretation of how to apply John Boyd's warfighting principles to business, written by someone who worked with Boyd. If you are a member of a group or team in competition for something, this book is a must-read.

I learned of John Boyd after his death in 1997. At that time all I knew was that as a fighter pilot, Boyd had developed an Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) theory to explain how some pilots and aircraft were more successful than others. I also learned that very little of Boyd's work was captured in written form - he preferred to deliver his message via marathon briefings.

When Robert Coram's biography "Boyd, the Fighter Pilot who Changed the Art of War" was published in 2002, I immediately snapped it up. Little did I know this would set me on a path which has helped me immeasurably as I grapple with life in corporate America.

Boyd is the modern day analog of Percy Scott and William Sims, two men who revolutionized gunfire at sea in the early part of the twentieth century. Many parallels exist in the methods these three men used to effect change in large bureaucracies - insights which are immediately applicable today in large corporations which struggle with innovation and growth amid the presence of lithe, agile, often unforeseen threats to their very existence.

In Coram's biography of Boyd, he spends a great deal of time describing Boyd's acolytes: Chet Richards, Raymond Leopold, Chuck Spinney, Jim Burton, and Pierre Sprey. These men worked with Boyd. They inspired and drew inspiration from him. Many continue to evangelize and expand on Boyd's ideas. One of the most prolific of Boyd's acolytes is Chet Richards. Chet has extended and reinterpreted Boyd's work in a business rather than military setting. His most recent book, "Certain to Win", demonstrates how organizations can achieve their goals through application of Boyd's concepts.

Coram's book and Richards' book are two important signposts on a journey of exploration which reveals connections amongst contemporary and historical thought leaders as diverse as Clayton Christensen, Sun Tsu, Brian Goodwin, Werner Heisenberg, Eli Goldratt, Mohan Sawhney, Niccolo Machiavelli, Michael Porter, Jaclyn Kostner, Gary Klein, Alistair Cockburn, John Kotter, and Tom Peters. Coram sets the stage, and Richards delivers the prescription for success in achieving fast OODA loops in organizations. "Certain to Win" shows how time can be exploited as a weapon for competitive advantage. Richards debunks the myth that "size matters" when it comes to modern competition. He makes it clear that business strategy is not a "super plan" to be plotted our far in the future and then executed with unfaltering mechanical precision. He shows that bureaucracies are inflexible and rigid at the top, while organisms are agile and adaptive.

Central to the value of "Certain to Win" is a detailed description of how to institute Boyd's organizational climate, a climate exhibited in elite organizations such as the US Marine Corps, Southwest Airlines, and Toyota. Consider the following:

1) Focus and direction

2) Mission responsibilities

3) Intuitive competence

4) Mutual trust

Like most of Boyd's concepts - OODA loops, energy maneuverability theory, destruction and creation - the simplicity of these four concepts belies the complexity and profound insight in creating them and the challenges in instituting them. Easily shrugged off as platitudes, they cry out for the detailed insight on how to apply them within a complex organization. With these four elements in place, organizations are able to operate at higher tempo than their competitors in the face of a rapidly changing set of environmental and competitive circumstances.

If you can get inside your competitor's OODA loop - whether you're a fighter pilot, a member of a sports team, or a business person - you will win every time. The key factors which enable this higher organizational tempo are focus and direction, mission responsibilities, intuitive competence, and mutual trust.

Boyd will one day be remembered as a man who not only changed the art of war, but through extension of his acolytes such as Chet Richards, the art of business and even the art of team sports. If you haven't read Coram's book, do so. Next, pick up "Certain to Win", which describes the steps individuals and organizations can take to move closer to their goal.

Basically, "Certain to Win" demonstrates how Boyd's principles can be applied wherever humans band together to improve their capacity for independent action. Highly recommended.

"Certain to Win" is a book about "making things happen". It breaks through the old concepts of long meetings and over analysis of a situation by "cutting to the chase" and taking action by intelligently using time and knowledge gained from current and past experiences in a rapid manner. Dr Richards illustrates this by using historical examples where the entity that took action was determined the winner, and that the winner was often a force less likely to win.

Many people experienced with managing/leading others will be able to relate to examples in their lives where people provide a lot of great ideas, but fail to act on them for one reason or another. This book helps people break through that challenge by providing actionable ideas/concepts that have been time tested via both military and commercial applications. Additionally, this book is designed to be employed by the reader by virtue of its direct and succinct approach to taking positive action in chaotic situations. The end of his book follows up with a number of references that can be sought for further study.

Key issues that challenge leaders are addressed in this book such as:

Creating/establishing a Vision (Concepts for team building)

Creating a winning climate in a highly competitive environment

How to survive and thrive in a Chaotic environment on your own terms

Provides leaders managerial and leadership concepts that are not mainstream

The strength of this book lies in its concepts of making rapid decisions and taking action. These very concepts are used by the military in crisis action planning, conducting combat operations, leading and managing U.S. Marines.

Operation managers can use this book to develop strategies that can assimilate cultural, educational and life experiences of its employees. Human resources managers can use this as a guide to develop templates to better identify who they want to hire and where they can best support the organization. Business Intelligence personnel can use the enclosed information, particularly the Boyd Cycle, to better support unit operations. Competitive Intelligence personnel can template out competitors utilizing the Dr Richards' concepts to properly assess competitors.

There something for everyone in this book whether you are military or civilian. This book is not just a read, it's a tool.

Sadly it is only after his death that we have come to have widespread appreciation of Boyd's great intellect. This book is another great step in finding broader application of some of what Boyd taught.Chet Richards has done a great job of bringing Boyd's message to the business world.

Some have questioned whether a view of decision making in combat was applicable to business. The answer is yes, sometimes and perhaps more often than you think. Boyd is probably even more applicable to political campaigns.

Were I still teaching MBA students, some of the material from the book would be in the classroom, replacing more traditional materials.

I would read Boyd first as a foundation for this book.

Highly recommended.

Possibly, the best book I have read on strategy, both in the arena of warfare and business (and I've read a few!). Chet Richards has done a great job of taking John Boyd's work and applying it to the arena of business. He uses a number of case studies (e.g. Toyota and SouthWest Airlines) to illustrate the concepts.

As an example of the insights I gleaned from the book, it makes it very clear why "me too" strategies rarely produce good results.

Anyway, a great book,only 187 pages (including notes etc) so it's easy to read and there's no "filler". Like all classics, simple and to the point but incredibly profound. Buy it! You'll be glad you did!

John Boyd created models for strategy and decision-making that led to modern maneuver warfare, and success on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan. Concepts such as `operational tempo', and `agility' emerged as new doctrinal pillars, yet found their roots in the earliest writings on warfare and conflict. Chet Richards has adopted and adapted these concepts to the business `battlefield.' This battlefield, unlike that in warfare, reflects the reality of `winning the customer,' and not just `beating the competition.' Richards's application of Boyd's theories, coupled with a significant bibliography of references (enough for a Strategist's Library), provides both a practical framework for adoption, and a basis for significant future research. Richard's references to the likes of Gary Klein (Sources of Power) and his theories of intuition and decision-making, cause the reader to think beyond formulaic approaches to business strategy. The reader is challenged to consider the human dynamic at the individual level, as well as the group and organizational level. The book is a quick read, which makes it ideal for picking up again and again.

Chet Richard's "Certain to Win" is a rich playbook with for the practitioner, and a sourcebook for the researcher.

Chet Richards does an excellent job illustrating and exposing the ideas and brilliance of John Boyd, especially as it relates to business. Chet was not only a friend and acolyte to Col. Boyd, he became an equal and co-creator of John's wisdom and philosophy. This probably explains why he understands and instinctively knows how John might apply his "O-O-D-A Loop" or "Building Snowmobiles" to the business challenges of today. The philosophy detailed in "Certain to Win" is the key to solving the most difficult problems of business, government and society. Organizations which can understand and apply the four components of "Maneuver Warfare" will succeed when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change. Once we develop an awareness of our own paradigms (Boyd's Orientation Phase), and an ability to rapidly change or reorient those paradigms (Speeding-Up Our Decision Cycle) we can literally practice "Guerrilla Warfare of the Mind." Decisions and organizational thought processes become intuitive, combining the inductive and deductive approaches. By speeding up our ability to analyze and synthesize near simultaneously, we effectively create our own "Temporal Distortion," that is time slows down for us. In business, as in war, speed and cunning beats size and strength every time. Chet Richards is On Target & On Time with "Certain to Win." Cheers!

Dr. Chet Richards' work is an extraordinarily fine piece of tight writing designed to take the mystery out of the O.O.D.A. Loop decision cycle itself and how one might apply it in areas outside of the battlefield where it is often applied. Despite the handicap of being a brilliant mathematician Dr. Richards approaches and covers the topic utilizing a useful layman's view.

With clear language Richards presents the fundamentals of Colonel John Boyd's revolutionary thinking on decision cycles - which thinking became the genesis for modern manuever warfare. Dr. Richards' real contribution lies in his knack for taking what some might consider arcane military theories and laying them on top of current business models and making the case - successfully in my view - for their incorporation as the new "best practices in business.

The book is a delightful read which re-informs military types regarding the enduring value of "Boydian Thinking" - it will also stretch the minds of our keenest business leaders. Should be in any thinker and doer's personal library.

Bill Hayes

Major, USMC (Ret.)

This book offers a rare and exciting framework for contemporary strategic thinking.

It draws on Sun Tzu's Art of War and the principles of manoeuvre warfare and has been applied to manufacturing, (Toyota Production System -TPS), design (Toyota Design System - TDS) and service industries (Southwest airline), just to quote a few.

Although hinged on the Army-Corporation analogy, this book provides the small business owner with precious insights. It would be great to see the author develop the concept of the deployment of a bridge head, which is small and agile, with the choice of ground and time, and the assault on a niche market, typically the endeavour of small start-ups. These have limited resources compared with incumbents and the major daily occupation is often the implementation of a survival strategy and its swift adaptation to changes in circumstances. Successful entrepreneurs carry out the survival strategy within a higher-order strategy, serving their vision or dream, the equivalent of top management's grand strategy for the large corporation. Small companies, although worse funded, are more agile and capable of going through a number of OODA loops faster than larger organizations. The 'Observe' block of the OODA loop includes the reason why innovation and opportunity exploitation are the realm of small business: if you replace the 'unfolding circumstances' arrow with '-observed- set of fortunate circumstances' you get an insightful description of opportunity that small business owners become more readily aware of and very good at exploiting.

The creative effort implicit in the observation of fortunate sets of circumstances is also needed in the Ch'i part of every successful strategy, the unexpected, the magic aspect of a product, process or service. Ch'i is complemented by Cheng, the expected, the 'as advertised'. Ch'i and Cheng are a strategist's knobs and levers, together with the ability to lead an organisation through a number of OODA loops, conducive to the understanding of the nature of and the incessantly changing balance between the expected and the unexpected of its product/service offering. This results in consistently and systematically thwarting competitors.

One implementation of these concepts is Toyota's Production System. It is arguable whether Toyota is as successful in implementing its Design System, as there are no car models significantly more stylish and appealing than competitors', not even Lexus', Toyota's luxury brand.

Ch'i could be the only competitive weapon left to Western companies or entire sectors against China's ruthless competition. Italy's textile industry is on the verge of being washed away now that import barriers have been waved. The shoemaking industry has already fled to China and to other cheap labour countries, just as small and medium companies in light industry (nominally machinery), once the backbone and pride of Italy, are now doing.

Manufacturing in developed countries seems doomed, the only option left being to focus on engineering, design, creativity in general. Even Toyota, despite its Systems, appears to be armless against Chinese cost of labour.

Its newly launched effort (Nihon Keizai, January 05) aimed at bringing a new generation of robots into its Japanese assembly plants to take on complex tasks currently performed by cell workers looks like a desperate manoeuvre against this formidable threat that is cutting through Toyota's most valued success factor: its workforce imbued with Toyota's culture. Or it might just be Cheng software (Toyota's Way or culture) looking for Ch'i new hardware.

Most everyone in the military has at least heard of the late Col. John Boyd, USAF, and his military theories, but few have really thought of applying Boyd to Business. Chet Richards has brought Boyd to a whole new audience.

I first met John Boyd in 1979, and his impact was dynamic. I didn't meet Chet Richards until much later, but he has really captured the essence of John Boyd in a particular and unique way, the application of Boyd to the world of commerce. Chet Richards was close to Boyd and exchanged ideas with respect to business applications. Boyd was enthusiastic about Chet's desires to put Boyd's theories into the business dimension and offered his help. Unfortunately for us, John Boyd died in 1997, but this did not detract from Chet Richard's long and determined effort to capture Boyd for the rest of the world. This, to Chet, must have been a labor of love, and no one else that I know could possibly have done what Chet Richards has done for us in this fine book.

I lamented the fact that there was not a lot written about Boyd after he died. While he briefed his ideas prolifically, he didn't write any serious works about these theories (other than one small paper), and I was afraid that his concepts and ideas would be lost to posterity. Then along came Grant Hammond with his biography of Boyd, and just a few years ago, Robert Coram wrote his extremely readable biography, and now Chet Richards has added considerably more to our understanding of Boyd from his own treasure chest of memories and understanding. I consider these three books a trilogy of Boyd, his life, and his ideas. The biographies were undoubtedly difficult undertakings, but this original application of Boyd's theories to business is a superlative achievement that deserves reading and recognition.

I was particularly impressed by this book with the very cogent and pertinent examples of how Boyd's theories apply to the business world. The examples are really what stirs the imagination because without them, it would be difficult to grasp military ideas in civilian clothes.

This is a masterful piece of relevant reading! Well Done, Chet Richards!