Chance affects all our lives. From the genes we inherit to the environment into which we are born, life is a gamble. It is chance that decrees who becomes an overnight millionaire from winning a lottery and who ends up the victim of a fatal air crash. And in nature electrons and the like obey only the laws of probability rather than those of Newton. In Chance Rules aspects of chance, risk and probability, from simple games involving the toss of a coin, to the use of clinical trials in medicine and the evaluation of alternative therapies, are explored in an informal and hopefully entertaining manner. The book is aimed at all those who would like to discover more about chance and the way it operates in a variety of settings. Professor Brian S. Everitt is the Head of the Biostatistics and Computing Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Kings College, London. He is the author of about 70 journal papers and 30 books on statistics.
Chance Rules
and over one million other books are available for Amazon Kindle.
Learn more
FREE Two-Day Shipping for Students. Learn more |
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Book Description
Editorial Reviews
Review
From the reviews of the second edition: "This book takes its place in a long line of books on probability directed to nonmathematicians. … the author gives those readers interested in more details some simple mathematics in various places, with the comment that readers uneasy with mathematics can pass over these details without losing the main thrust, but encourages readers to make the effort. … readers who try to follow the mathematical details will probably find these to be helpful exercises." (Gerald A. Heuer, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1156, 2009) “…When dealing with conditional probability…you may enjoy the delightful book by Professor Everitt! According to the Preface, ‘As in the first edition, I have tried to keep the mathematical details to the very minimum although a few formidable looking formulae do occasionally appear.’” (Simo Puntanen, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tampere, Finland) “Brian Everitt’s second edition of Chance Rules continues to be a valuable guide for addressing issues of probability with audiences of non-statisticians. … Rich with history, concisely explaining in various parts of the book the history of probabilistic thinking, gambling, and the evolving role of statistics in medicine. This historical approach provides the context that makes this “not” a dry book. …uses engaging examples that will help build statistical literacy…” (The American Statistician, February 2010, Vol. 64, No. 1) “Practitioners, students, professors. What should you do when somebody is telling you that there is a system that is capable of reliable and accurate prediction when it comes to stock market movements? Why were things better when I was young? What did Professor Everitt reply in his younger days, when women in parties used to ask what he did for living? … If the above topics make you curious, you may enjoy the delightful book by Professor Everitt!” (Simo Puntanen, International Statistical Review, Vol. 78 (1), 2010)
--This text refers to an alternate
Hardcover
edition.
From the Back Cover
Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty. This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics. Brian Everitt is Professor Emeritus at King's College, London. He is the author of over 50 books on statistics.
--This text refers to an alternate
Hardcover
edition.
Product Details
Would you like to update product info or give feedback on images?
|
More About the Author
Discover books, learn about writers, read author blogs, and more.
Customer Reviews
|
Share your thoughts with other customers:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
7 of 7 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars
Well written traditional account of probability,
By
Amazon Verified Purchase(What's this?)
This review is from: Chance Rules: An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics (Hardcover)
In the better half of the dozen or so popular science style books on probability that I have read and reviewed. The selection of topics (listed below) is very traditional and the author has chosen to cover many topics briefly rather than a few topics in depth; in other regards it has a middle of the road style. That is, in the middle of spectra (a) from gee-whiz enthusiasm to dry analysis; (b) from absolutely no mathematics to too much mathematics. What it says is almost everywhere clear and correct, though the book as a whole lacks individualistic style or focus. Indeed the only unique feature I noticed is that it mentions neither the normal curve nor power law distributions -- other books tend to overemphasize at least one of those topics. Like other books by academics (the most similar previous one being Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities) it implicitly focuses on topics related to traditional College freshman statistics courses rather than those arising from fashionable research (random models of social networks or the Internet, genetic algorithms, fractals ...) which tend to be emphasized in books written by professional science writers.
List of topics: brief history, rules for combining probabilities, combinations and permutations, the gambler's fallacy, waiting times for patterns in coin tossing, games (lottery, roulette, poker, blackjack) and sports (horse racing, football pools), Bayes rule illustrated by positive/negative medical diagnostics and by the O.J. Simpson and Sally Clark cases, paradoxes (2 boys, Monte Hall, surprise exam, St Petersburg), secretary problem, birthday coincidences and anecdotes about real-world coincidences, risk perception and influence of positive/negative presentation of risk/reward, randomization in clinical trials, and evidence regarding acupuncture and homeopathy, modeling illustrated by improving sports records and stock markets, and brief final mentions of chaos, quantum theory and random mutations as the driving force behind evolution.
4.0 out of 5 stars
Interesting yet those who have high school level knowledge about probability will find it more digestable,
This review is from: Chance Rules: An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics (Hardcover)
The author had done a great job to make such a complicated subject so interesting and easily digestable by mass audience. Honestly, I dont understand all the topics but at least it builds into my mind that chance rules and my first impression about probability of an issue is almost always wrong. In short, recommended! p.s. Below please find a few favorite passages of mine for your reference. There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he cant afford it, and when he can - Mark Twain pg47 Probability that all r birthdays are different: 2-0.997, 20-0.589, 100-0.00000031 pg79 Probability of at least one birthday the same as yours: 1-0.003, 100-0.24, 253-0.500 pg80 The luck of having talent is not enough; one must also have a talent for luck. - Hector Berlioz pg87 A neighbor has two children. One is a boy. What is the probability of the other child is also a boy? 1/3 pg106 In any evaluation of risk it has to be remembered that life itself is a universally fatal sexually transmitted disease and that in the end nobody cheats death. A strong case can be made for living a life of modified hedonism so that we may enjoy to the full the only life which we are likely to have. Pg134 The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions. - Paul Samuelson pg169
Share your thoughts with other customers: Create your own review
|
|
Inside This Book
(learn more)
Browse and search another edition of this book.
Browse and search another edition of this book.
Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Front Flap | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Surprise Me!
Front Cover | Front Flap | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Surprise Me!
What Other Items Do Customers Buy After Viewing This Item?
Suggested Tags from Similar Products(What's this?)Be the first one to add a relevant tag (keyword that's strongly related to this product).
|
Customer Discussions
|
This product's forum
Active discussions in related forums
Search Customer Discussions
|
Related forums
|
Listmania!
So You'd Like to...
|
|
