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The Change Function: Why Some Technologies Take Off and Others Crash and Burn

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I didn't think I would like this book much. If the author really had the secret truth behind success and failure of technologies he should be a billionaire rather than an analyst or an author. However, after I started reading I realized that the author was really providing a kind of primer for those considering the actual market viability of making a product / service using technology and a way for people considering investments in technology a tool for measuring the possibilities for success.

He begins by describing the traditional view of technology products using Moore's Law and Grove's law. They are traditional and well understood. With Moore's law the secret is increasing power while lowering cost and you get to a tipping point of acceptance. Grove's law is that if you provide an order of magnitude in improvement (10x) you can replace in incumbent technology. While these are good yardsticks, they can lead to technologies used in products with no markets. You know, the old mousetrap being sold in a world with no mice.

Instead, to get the focus shifted to market place realities, the author, Pip Coburn, offers what he calls the Change Function. Basically, you have to look at the Crisis the product / service addresses for the customer versus the Total Perceived Pain of Adoption. Until the Total Perceived Pain of Adoption (TPPA) becomes significantly less than the Crisis, you will not be adopted in the marketplace and cannot succeed. I think this is a good way to look at thinks. However, I would do that in addition to Grove's law. I still think it is a fundamental measure of the kind of difference their needs to be between the Crisis and TPPA.

The author takes us through a variety of winners and losers and even makes some predictions (i.e. he likes Satellite Radio and hates RFID as just two examples). And he provides a chapter with many sets of questions that should be asked of any technology product thinking about entering the marketplace before gobs of money are wasted. I like this section a lot. Even if you only find a couple of questions you hadn't explicitly answered for yourself, it can help you avoid fuzzy thinking about where that last land mine could be that will blow your feet off after you start your journey into market competition. That is a good thing!

So, if you are a technology buff and thinking about a business for your technology, this is a great book to help you take the blinders off and see the actual market possibilities rather than the gee-whiz-this-is-cool-stuff attitude that can sink your business before it ever goes anywhere.

Don't let the title fool you: this is a book all who persuade for a living need to read and embrace. The Big Idea: it's not the service that matters but whether the customer or client is ready to adopt what you're selling. The status quo bias will prevail until a crisis driven client needs the service you are selling and the pain of adoption is lowered to the point where the bias does not block the change. A simple but elegant idea that he talks about with lots of examples.The last three chapters help you integrate his ideas with a case study, questions to ask to see if someone is customer centric or self centered, and a To Do list to become the first and not the second. The writing is direct("earthlings do not want to learn, nor do they enjoy learning"), peppered with interesting quotes and charts, and ends at 213 pages. Let me stress the 213---so many books are really fattened up articles, and this one is not. As Coburn might say, the crisis of not knowing his message is high(we need to know why people do what they do), and the perceived pain of adoption is low(a weeekend spent reading the book).

The book felt like hype for Pip Coburn's investments. It contradicts itself in numerous places and its examples are sketchy on details and facts. For instance, cost is rarely even a factor and that's the magic of the "change function", but in chapter 4 it seems to be a significant factor in the failure of Iridium/Globalstar. His hyping of satellite radio was very one sided. He mentioned none of the reasons many investors already consider it a failure- if you want customized music just buy an ipod, the most important 20-30 year old demographic can't afford brand new cars with XM and have a "free music" mentality, and the infrastructure costs with satellites combined with still needing ground antennas makes it uncompetitively expensive. Intel did not give up on MHz increases because customers did not care. They gave up because they are hitting technology limitations as silicon approaches the limits that physics will allow. Salesforce.com is mentioned practically in every chapter as a godsend example of a great company, yet I can easily apply Coburn style methods to counter this enthusiasm. My biggest disappointment was this one sided analysis throughout the whole book.

Finally!

A unique and refreshing view of change; and it is penned by a former technology securities analyst. Who would have thought it?

Pip Coburn, who runs his own advisory firm and former managing director and global technology strategist, looks at his industries through the view finder of the consumer. And he does it in a lively style that delivers sharp insights into why a few technologies soar; while most fall flat on their faces.

It is simple. Yet, like many simple ideas it captures the essence of change. Ready?

People are only willing to change and accept new technologies when the pain of their current situation outweighs the perceived pain of trying something new.

Quoting everyone from Machiavelli to Yoda, Coburn topples clichés about innovation and change spouted for years by overpaid gurus and the equally overpaid CEOs who employ them. In only takes a few pages of reading before you can answer questions that have been plaguing you for years, like:

* Why do you have so many passwords?
* Why your VCR flashes 12:00?
* Why your spell check Capitalizes words you Do not want capitalized?
* Who thinks a smart phone is smart?
* Who asked for interactive TV?

Pip Coburn is a keen observer. He views his field from a unique vantage point. Time spent with this book will give you new understanding of technology. Linger over its message for a while; you will become a wiser investor, manager, CEO or computer geek.

Oftentimes, change and technology go hand-in-hand - as they complement and drive each other forward, usually to the betterment of us all. However, there is also a strong linkage between new technological launches and failure. The book titled - The Change Function - by author Pip Coburn analyzes why promising technologies in the past have failed while others have gone on to be great, "can't-live-without-it" successes. Soundview recommends this read because it not only looks at successes such as Netflix, iPods and flat-screen TVs but it scrutinizes failures including the Segway people mover, the Tablet PC and video phones. Coburn then demonstrates how both of these successful and failed technology streams provide meaningful lessons toward answering his billion dollar question: "Why do some new technologies succeed and others fail?" Coburn's key takeaway is that people are only willing to change and accept new technologies when the pain of their current situation outweighs the perceived pain of trying something new. He further found that the average potential adopter of a given technology is afraid of it and needs to be convinced of the need to change. Without that conviction the marriage between change and technology is simply doomed to fail. This is a thoroughly engaging and worthwhile read, and it may even change some minds regarding technology.

The Change Function: Why Some Technologies Take Off and Others Crash and Burn
Interesting theory and well written book. Besides that it's hard to me figure out how to apply it to my business. Evaluations are qualitative and highly dependent of the assessor's knowledge. It requires a detailed guideline to be applicable on a company operation.

If you've never read any well written and insightful books on technology adoption (such as Lewis Mumford's "Technics and Civilization") then perhaps parts of "The Change Function" may appear profound. However if you had, then this text will find you wishing you had spent your time and money elsewhere.

People won't use technology that's hard to use? Profound. People only learn a new way to drive to work when the old route is under construction? Brilliant. Coburn goes way out on a limb to predict what technology will succeed...are you ready? Flat screen technology and Blackberries (mobile enterprise email). The man is a psychic.

On top of the lack of anything remotely fresh in this book, reading The Change Function is a bit like reading a version of Bartlett's Familiar Quotations; except the people being quoted are not familiar to you...unless you are one of Pip's blog friends, who receive endless attributions throughout the book.

Please save your time and money. Re-read Telecosm (Gilder) with an eye for how so many actual predictions (not like Coburn's Monday-morning QB stlye) were wrong.

BTW - I predict hybrid cars will be big in the future.

Pip Coburn has done an exceptional job crystallizing the subject of change into a simple yet powerful framework that has numerous implications. Investors, inventors, entrepreneurs, managers, consultants and others would benefit from using this framework as a reality check and source of idea inspiration while assessing the potential for new products and services.

The book's ideas are not limited to technology. In one colorful example, an intelligent woman applies the change function's "perceived pain of adoption" concept to understanding why men were suddenly very interested in diets a few years ago. What had brought about the change? At the time, low-carb diets were allowing men to eschew salads and other unfulfilling diet foods in favor hearty, protein-laden meals. As a result, the perceived difficulty of dieting had been lowered, and the number of individuals willing to try diets exploded.

A fantastic book for anyone interested in technology and/or the general topic of change.

On one hand, this book seems to belabor the point that products are only adopted by the market if the user's have a "crisis" that outweighs the costs of acquiring and using the product. On the other hand, anyone in business selling a product should read this book.

The key concept is USER CRISIS. The whole point of the book is this -- if we don't want or need something, it doesn't matter how little it costs and how well it works.

Numerous examples are provided which illustrate that the tech industry's infatuation with Moore's law (cost will decrease and performance will increase steadily until consumers *eventually* will make the purchase) and Grove's law (success can be achieved by creating 10x improvements to technical capabilities) continues to misdirect billions of dollars.

The book illustrates how the tech community continues to believe that any cool technology will be adopted by the masses if it's costs come down enough. In other words, the majority of consumers will purchase ANYTHING if it costs little and does neat things.

Mr.Coburn provides useful insights into why some technologies succeed in the marketplace and others that seem equally good or better do not. The answer often lies in not viewing the technology from the user's point of view, either in its use or how it is presented. Includes interesting and helpful illustrations of real technologies that failed and some that suceeded. This book complements Everett Rogers' "Diffusion of Innovations", which discusses how innovations are adopted in social systems.