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Changing Party Coalitions: The Mystery of the Red State-Blue State Alignment

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The two main parties in American politics have accomplished something unique in global democracy: each has completely switched 180 degrees, ideologically and geographically, to inhabit the space once occupied by the other. Duke University Professor of Political Science Jerry F. Hough brings a fresh approach to the study of this phenomenon, one that challenges many established assumptions.

Hough asserts the driving force in the formation of American party identification was the deep rooted ethno-religious cleavages within American society, primarily WASP vs. immigrant, and Catholic vs. Protestant. The salience of these cleavages persisted until the post-WWII era, when for the first time a common perception of a shared "white" identity, forged by the collective sacrifice of WWII, greater social mobility, and the increasing prominence of African Americans, led to a dramatic realignment in voting patterns.

Hough points out the significance of Adlai Stevenson as harbinger of the middle class orientation in policy and the suburban political appeal that would be the hallmark of the post-New Deal Democratic Party. The subsequent defection of the Southern and urban ethnic voters who had previously been the mainstay of the Democratic coalition was not simply a reaction to the liberal social agenda pursued by the Democrats but of their failure to appeal to the economic self-interest of those voters. This is particularly true of Southern evangelicals, who have been firmly identified with the GOP since 1980. However, unlike much of the knee-jerk analysis of the election of 2004, Hough does not overemphasize the significance of the evangelical vote in 2004, or the influence of its leaders within the GOP.

Hough justifiably draws attention to the startling lack of scholarship devoted to the Perot campaign in 1992, which he defines as a harbinger of the real defining force of politics after 911, the wave of nationalism on which George W. Bush rode to reelection in 2004.

Hough's anticipation, published in 2006, of stock market trends makes for interesting reading: "After three years of a bull market, it would be normal to expect a temporary correction of some 25% over the next few years. Judging by earlier experience, this might or might not forecast an impending recession. Depending on its timing, it might or might not have an effect on the 2008 election." (p. 256) In the event, the timing could not have been worse for John McCain.

Even more presciently, Hough's summation of the Bush economic agenda now reads like its epitaph:

"The Administration maintained consumption through reducing interest rates almost to zero. This allowed mortgage refinancing and an increase in disposable income. It also sharply lowered the monthly payments for new home buyers and produced a rise in housing prices. The resulting boom - some would say, a bubble - in housing prices increased the home equity for existing homeowners and allowed them to take out large loans against this home equity. The Bush administration also permitted a sharp further rise in the foreign trade deficit, again contributing to a rise in consumption." (p. 257)

It should be noted some errors did creep into the text:

Senator Robert La Follette was not a Catholic (p. 47)

Democratic candidate Al Smith lost five, not four, Confederate states in 1928 (including Texas), but still won only 87, not 97, votes in the Electoral College (p. 88)

It was the New York Daily News, not the Post, that headlined "Ford to City: Drop Dead", not "New York, Drop Dead" (p. 178)

Senator Robert Kerrey contested the 1992 presidential primaries, not Senator John Kerrey (sic: Kerry) (p. 227)

Bob Dole was selected as Gerald Ford's running mate in 1976, not 1974, after narrowly winning reelection to the Senate in 1974, not 1972 (p. 234)

Overall, this is an interesting overview of the broad themes of American electoral politics and a useful addition to the literature. One is left hoping some of the themes Hough touched upon in passing will be addressed in greater depth in subsequent publications; foremost among these would be the assertion the Constitutional Convention of 1787 "was a velvet military coup d'état against the Articles of Confederation, a coup led by the man who controlled the army," George Washington (p. 15)