Channels and Cycles: A Tribute to J. M. Hurst [Hardcover]

Brian J. Millard (Author)

Product Details

• Hardcover: 255 pages
• Publisher: Wasendorf & Associates Inc (March 18, 1999)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0934380503
• ISBN-13: 978-0934380508
• Product Dimensions: 9.4 x 6.3 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,067,120 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

18 of 20 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Takes technical analysis to a whole new level., November 2, 2005

By 

Rob Ryley "Robert" (Northeast NJ) - See all my reviews
(VINE VOICE)   

This review is from: Channels and Cycles: A Tribute to J. M. Hurst (Hardcover)

I am in the middle of reading both JM Hurst's original work on market cycles, as well as Brian Millard's modern treatment of cycle analysis. I've finished this one today.

This book is for the technician or trader who wishes to think for himself, and not rely on over-used, and often misapplied mathematical techniques.

Millard instructs you on how to use mathematical tools to extract cycles from stock price data, predict price and time zones, and determine the optimum time period to trade in.

Through simple logic, Millard demonstrates the optimum time period to trade in is between 50 and 100 days. If you are a diehard daytrading scapler, you probably won't like the conclusions he comes to in this book.

Through the simple use of moving averages and envelope channels, you can learn to pick out the low risk points to place directional trades. I've experimented with the techniques for a few months now, and they are very useful.

What is fascinating, is that the trading rules developed from cycles often match up very well with classical chart pattern trading rules.

The author does an excellent job of explaining the mathematical properties of moving averages, and how the use of moving averages in cycle analysis differs from their use in conventional trend following systems.

Some reservations about the techniques: 1. Cycle analysis uses arithmatic scaling for measuring the magnitued of cycles. This strikes me as invalid on time frames greater than weekly, due to the logarithmic price changes over long periods of time.

Point and figure chartists have similar problems--dealing with changes in price level. It is going to be very hard to draw valid channels on some large cap tech stock that declined from 100 to 10 during the bear market. Having said that, for shorter time periods, these methods are fine, and the techniques to measure wavelength (time targets) are still valid, even on monthly data.

2. The author makes absolutely no use of volume in the analysis. I suspect incorporating volume into the analysis of cycles would improve the results.

3. The author makes it appear that stock price data is just like any other data. With this, I disagree. There is a psychological element that is missing from this type of analysis. Cycles are not the complete answer to trading, but they are a very good start.

18 of 21 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Read the original work instead, September 7, 2000

By A Customer

This review is from: Channels and Cycles: A Tribute to J. M. Hurst (Hardcover)

This "tribute" to J.M. Hurst is a very difficult read at best. He took the work of Hurst and made it very complex and in my opinion useless in real life trading. The publisher says that this book "clarifies" and "updates" Hurst's original book. Hardly.

I totally disagree with the author's assertion that the optimal trading period is 50 - 100 days. Hurst's main premise was the shorter the cycle the faster profits would accumulate by rolling into other opportunities as soon as the trade was closed, compounding the gains (pg 24).

Hurst's "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" is a classic text for anyone interested in cycles or swing trading. Buy that book instead.

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Save your money, buy the original., October 7, 2007

By 

None - See all my reviews

Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: Channels and Cycles: A Tribute to J. M. Hurst (Hardcover)

This is just a rehash of J.M. Hurst's excellent work, "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing". I fount the original easier to understand and liked Hurst's plain-talking style better. If Millard added anything original, I did not find it.