Chaos and Order In the Capital Markets (Wiley Finance Editions) [Hardcover]

Edgar E Peters (Author)

Book Description

Series: Wiley Finance Editions | Publication Date: November 1991

This conceptual work introduces the mathematics of fractals and chaos theory and applies them to investments and economics. The text notes a shift away from efficient capital markets and examines the concept of a chaotic economic system which exists on volatility rather than equilibrium.

Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

This edition of a Wiley classic brings Chaos completely up-to-date with timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of the related cutting-edge technologies such as genetic algorithms, wavelets, complexity theory and hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence. Contents include: non-linear dynamics, fractals, rescales range (R/S) analysis and a case-by-case analysis of the capital markets using chaos models and updated examples. --This text refers to an alternate Hardcover edition.

From the Back Cover

The latest developments in chaos theory - from an industry expert

Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the first book to introduce and popularize chaos as it applies to finance. It has since become the classic source on the topic. This new edition is completely updated to include the latest ripples in chaos theory with new chapters that tie in today's hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic, neural nets, and artificial intelligence.

Critical praise for Peters and the first edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets

"The bible of market chaologists." - BusinessWeek

"Ed Peters has written a first-class summary suitable for any investment professional or skilled investor." - Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities

"It ranks among the most provocative financial books of the past few years. Reading this book will provide a generous payback for the time and mental energy expended." - Financial Analysts Journal

This second edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets brings the topic completely up to date with timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of the latest wave of technology, including genetic algorithms, wavelets, and complexity theory.

Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the very first book to explore and popularize chaos theory as it applies to finance. It has since become the industry standard, and is regarded as the definitive source to which analysts, investors, and traders turn for a comprehensive overview of chaos theory. Now, this invaluable reference - touted by BusinessWeek as "the bible of market chaologists" - has been updated and revised to bring you the latest developments in the field.

Mainstream capital market theory is based on efficient market assumptions, even though the markets themselves exhibit characteristics that are symptomatic of nonlinear dynamic systems. As it explores - and validates - this nonlinear nature, Chaos and Order repudiates the "random walk" theory and econometrics. It shifts the focus away from the concept of efficient markets toward a more general view of the forces underlying the capital market system.

Presenting new analytical techniques, as well as reexamining methods that have been in use for the past forty years, Chaos and Order offers a thorough examination of chaos theory and fractals as applied to investments and economics. This new edition includes timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of cutting-edge technologies-genetic algorithms, wavelets, complexity theory-and hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence.

Beyond the history of current capital market theory, Chaos and Order covers the crucial characteristics of fractals, the analysis of fractal time series through rescaled range analysis (R/S), the specifics of fractal statistics, and the definition and analysis of chaotic systems. It offers an in-depth exploration of:
* Random walks and efficient markets - the development of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and modern portfolio theory
* The linear paradigm - why it has failed
* Nonlinear dynamic systems - phase space, the Henon Map, Lyapunov exponents
* Applying chaos and nonlinear methods - neural networks, genetic algorithms
* Dynamical analysis of time series - reconstructing a phase space, the fractal dimension

Tonis Vaga's Coherent Market Hypothesis - the theory of social imitation, control parameters, Vaga's implementations

Plus, Chaos and Order now contains a Windows-compatible disk including data sets for running analyses described in the appendices.

Written by a leading expert in the field, Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets has all the information you need for a complete, up-to-date look at chaos theory. This latest edition will undoubtedly prove to be as invaluable as the first. --This text refers to an alternate Hardcover edition.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 254 pages
• Publisher: Wiley, John Sons (November 1991)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0471533726
• ISBN-13: 978-0471533726
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.1 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 3.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,783,699 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Edgar Peters is a Partner and Co-Director of Global Macro at First Quadrant, LLP in Pasadena, CA. He is involved in all aspects of product development: model building, risk measurement, risk allocation, and portfolio optimization. Prior to joining First Quadrant he spent 23 years with PanAgora Asset Management where he was over time an equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Prior to joining PanAgora, Ed was Investment Technology Manager at Interactive Data Corporation and an equity analyst/trader at Mutual Benefit Life. He has lectured extensively in the classroom as well as in conference settings. The author of numerous articles in investment journals, Ed is also the author of three books: Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets (Wiley, 1991, 1996), Fractal Market Analysis (Wiley, 1994), and Patterns in the Dark (Wiley, 1999). Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

36 of 36 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent overview, August 10, 2000

By 

"ausus" - See all my reviews

This review is from: Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets: A New View of Cycles, Prices, and Market Volatility (Wiley Finance) (Hardcover)

Most probably there are two types of people who won't like this book. First, if you are a research scientist with a lot of experience in the field, you'll probably find the material a bit too "easy" (you know, people who write "it's easy like a senior undergrad math texbook" in their reviews). Certainly, you can learn a lot of the same stuff from original papers. On the other hand, learning from research papers is not the most efficient way (I have an M.S.(astrophysics)/B.S.(physics), and still get headaches reading them), and this book provides a great overview. Now I read the original papers from the link above with much better understanding. The second category who won't enjoy the book is dyed-in-the-wool "practitioners" in search of a magic formula. I don't think this book can be directly applied to creating a trading system. On the other hand, it will help you understand the markets better, which won't hurt your financial success. While the knowledge that S&P 500 has a fractal dimension of 1.26 won't give you too much edge, understanding that there is a strong statistical evidence for trending in the markets (e.g. Hurst exponent substantially > 0.5) can be an extra reason for the head of your trading firm yelling at you when you refused to cut your losses or to hold on to your winners. But, again, the book is mostly useful in the same sense as the philosophy class you took in college: it gives you a fresh perspective and lets you look at the world from a different angle.

In short, if you are interested in the markets and are not totally averse to science, you'll like this book a lot. It's the first book in finance which I found hard to put down. The text is written on an introductory level, explaining all new concepts. There are a lot of graphs and numerical results related to the market, and the author's thoughts and observations are most fascinating.

18 of 18 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Future of maket analysis, innovative approach, limited scope, June 13, 1998

By A Customer

This review is from: Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets: A New View of Cycles, Prices, and Market Volatility (Wiley Finance) (Hardcover)

The book is very readable. The theories of chaos applied to the behavior of markets and instuments is clearly expressed. Peters's approach is somewhat biased toward the interpretation of Hurst's law. No doubt, it is amazing how an analysis in hydraulic engineering in the early 1900s shed light on the problem of variablility and prediction in complex systems, nevertheless its application to capital markets is fresh and propositive.

19 of 20 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars A dated overview, with little real meat, February 9, 2003

By 

Ian Kaplan (Livermore, CA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets: A New View of Cycles, Prices, and Market Volatility (Wiley Finance) (Hardcover)

The second edition of this book was published in 1996. The book
seems to be largely based on Feder's 1988 book "Fractals". The
dated nature of this book means that it is missing later work
on long memory processes, which Peters estimates using the Hurst
exponent.

As one reviewer already noted, don't assume that this book will
provide much in the way of useful equations. For anyone who wants
more than an overview, this book is a disappointment. Peters does
a poor job of explaining the equations and I did not find enough
detail to implement the algorithms discussed (I turned to Feder's
book and various journal articles). The book does come with a
"floppy" disk containing the Visual Basic algorithms. This is
a poor choice, since C is pretty much the lingua franca for
algorithms.

The various chaos and fractal techniques are applied to a handful
of financial data sets, but this is far from even a solid
suggestion that these techniques might be useful to anyone
developing real market models.

Some of the conclusions that Peters draws (cycles in financial
data) do not seem to be supported the evidence he presents.

In summary, if you are looking for something beyond an overview,
save your money. Feder ("Fractals") has a better description of
RS calculation. "A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Lo
and MacKinlay has a chapeter on the application of the RS
statistic and long-memory processes which is much better than
Peters. For those who need to simulate fractal brownian motion
(data sets with a particular Hurst exponent) "The Science of
Fractal Images" by Barnsley et all is a good reference.