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China: The Gathering Threat

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Excellect and vital read for all, ESPECIALLY those sworn to defend the West in the fields of Intelligence, Security & Defense; and, those who serve in elected office or who make policy recommendations to same.

One critical element Dr. Menges - a most important dot of connection - misses, is that the strategic alliance between Russia and China is not something new nor has it been a natural outgrowth of geo-political events of the last 18 years. It was foretold and explained by KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn in "New Lies for Old" and "The Perestroika Deception" more than 25 years ago. (Golitsyn was finally sacked by the Nixon administration because of his insistence that there never existed a real Sino-Soviet split - it was a deception all along to work a scissors strategy against the West. Their methods are standard dialectial fare in the world of deception.)

It is a major mistake to think that we can convince Russia to move toward the West and to sate China's ambitions via clever policy moves. The mask both countries wear were designed to make us believe these false notions. Part and parcel of Russia and China's long-range deception is to mislead the West into thinking these exact false notions are possible. While the West tries to pry these two threats apart, they become better positioned for their ultimate goal - the same as all history's would-be dominators.

The deception component of Russia and China MUST be at least considered in order to know how to respond to the threat. These are the issues spoken about for years amongst the few and found at this totally, non-commercial website: http://www.thefinalphase.com ("The final phase" is a term used by Golitsyn to describe the dangerous time we're in now.)

Here is a voluminous, well researched, and timely analysis of China's impending power grab in Asia. More books are sure to come, but so far none have been warmly received by the New York Eastern publishing establishment.

That China bashing is not a popular subject on Wall Street is demonstrated by the fact that even if you are an ex-assistant to the President for National Security, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a former National Intelligence officer at the CIA, an advisor to Congress and a senior professor of International Relations at George Washington University, as Professor Menges was, your book will end up being published posthumously by an obscure printing house in Tennessee on cheap paper.

But whatever the case may be, Professor Menges' book is an analytical work, not a China bashing book. Even so, the facts he has accumulated are (or should be) alarming to the Western World. Simply put: China has become powerful enough both economically and militarily to challenge the US influence in Asia, in fact, to kick the US right out of Asia if she chooses to (and as China has already promised to do).

The ignition switch for the Chinese power grab is Taiwan, a heated and escalating situation the Western media has done little or nothing to publicize. To put it mildly, China could invade Taiwan at any time, but might hold out until shortly before or after the Olympic games of 2008 (which will take place in China). A US reaction could provoke a Sino-American war in Asia. But in spite of this, it is abundantly clear that China's ambition goes beyond Taiwan and is a regional ambition to replace the United States as the dominating power in Asia.

Menges outlines a steady Chinese operation to undermine the US both politically and economically and, if necessary, militarily. Disturbingly enough, the US has shown little interest in confronting the situation.

The information Menges includes in his book proving China's operational designs on Asia are as convincing as they are voluminous, too voluminous in fact to list completely here. But I will mention the most important ones:

-China has claimed Taiwan, the Paracels, the Spratleys, the Japanese Senkau Islands and South China sea as Chinese

-China is buying the ultimate in modern weaponry en masse from Russia

-China has formalized an official military alliance with Russia against America

-China has built a veritable forest of missile launchers astride Taiwan

-China has fired multiple ballistic missiles over and near Taiwan

-China has threatened US carriers to keep out of the Taiwan Strait (and our carriers have obeyed)

-China has threatened to take out all the US bases in Asia, invade South Korea and initiate strikes against the continental US should America intervene in Taiwan

-China has stolen America's most advanced nuclear secrets (we let the only Chinese spy we caught-Wen Ho Lee-go free)

-China is using its clout to turn the nations of the Third World against America

(no joke, China prohibited three central American nations from receiving the President of Taiwan at the last minute...and they obeyed)

-China now operates the Panama Canal

-China is building the world's largest container port in the Bahamas

-China & Russia operate an electronic spy base in Cuba

-China has jammed US propaganda transmissions to the Third World

If one looks at what we have to stand up to China --- half the military forces we had in 1992 / our presence in the Philippines reduced to zero / reduced forces in Korea (which we are now withdrawing south of Seoul) / a thin alliance with Taiwan which neither promises nor denies assistance and does not recognize Taiwan / 7 trillion dollars of debt / a weak economy / most of our heavy industry outsourced / low morale in the Army after two+ years of Iraq / a total split and alienation of NATO / general resistance to the draft --- one can see there won't be very much the US would do should China decide to invade Taiwan. It would not be surprising to see the US just sit back and watch.

But what the world fails to see, according to Menges, is that to the Chinese this would be further confirmation of American decline in Asia marked by the expulsion of Chiang Kai Shek, the expulsion of US forces from North Korea, the withdrawal of US forces from South Vietnam, the closure of US bases in the Philippines and the reduction of US forces in South Korea. What the world fails to see, according to the author, is that Taiwan would be only the first step in a wider Chinese expansion.

Is the US about to suffer a royal defeat in Asia?

Whatever happens, we must remember this: we were abundantly warned of what was coming.

Sun Tzu would have loved the current (and, for that matter, past several decades') strategy of the PRC and Russia. For the PRC, a de facto confederation with Russia constitutes a new incarnation of the Yuan Dynasty, but this time around, a dynasty with Han elites as its Eastern node. For Russia, this time around, they are an equal, not a vassal state, to a Far Eastern great power.

It is an interesting excercise to start with an assumption that the much lauded late 50s through early 70s "Sino Soviet Split" was a massive smoke screen and not bona fide. Assume this, and revisit each major event with any dependence on or relationship to the "split" accordingly. Such events are many and continue to the present day. Of particular note, in this regard, are geopolitics in South East Asia. If the Sino-Soviet Split was a ruse, then quite literally, everything you may have learned about Southeast Asian geopolitics since the 1950s is wrong!

Moving forward, consider the ramification of the world's largest combined military troop strength combined with the world's largest arsenal, when Russian and Chinese forces are coordinated or combined. The mother of all Axes .....

As one starts to read this work, one must keep in mind that it begins from a point of bias. While the reasearch and sholarship put into this work are beyond reproach, it cannot also be denied that it begins from an anti-China stance. With all that said, I will summarize the work without pointing out every case of bias.

In the United States the debate on national security has been focused almost solely on the Global War on Terrorism, yet this does not represent the single most relevant long-term threat to US national security. The gathering power of the People's Republic of China and their recent strategic entente with Russia represent a real, if ignored, threat to American security. Indeed, since the PRC decided to open its economy to foreign investment and trading it can be said that the US has turned a blind eye to a worrisome pattern of human rights abuses and political repression so that it can have access to a billion potential consumers. Under the naïve assumption that an open economy will in turn produce political results, the US and other Democracies have funded (through an ungodly trade imbalance with China) the modernization of conventional Chinese forces and the buildup of one of the world's largest tactical and strategic, nuclear forces.

Dr. Menges presents an abbreviated history of political reform and repression in the former Soviet Union, current Russia and China. He explores the relationships of these two nations with each other and with the United States, coming to the conclusion that (with the fall of Soviet Russia and communism in Eastern Europe, and the subsequent rise of an economic and military giant in China) the strategic partnership forming between these two nations can lead to relapse of reform in Russia, a more aggressive PRC, and the isolation of the US from its Asian allies. He then presents a realist solution to America's emerging problem, citing the need for a realistic relationship with China and one that encourages further steps towards full democracy in Russia. The evidence he presents is quite hard to refute by any estimation.

In Russia and Eastern Europe Dr. Menges shows us how the smallest inkling of reform can start a fire that spreads throughout the region. Gorbachev's policies of opening the economy and limited political debate and elections led to real and permanent change. Once the people had a taste of actual freedom, the dissolution of the USSR was not long in coming. It was at this time that Menges demonstrates where US policy did not reach out enough to help the fledgling Democracy. After the failed coup attempt in 1991 Yeltsin led his country through successful, Democratic elections, but the result of the elections of the 90's were many wins for the Russian Communist Party and the ultra-nationalist party, along with the pro-Democratic party. Although no longer the sole repository of power, the Russian Communist Party maintained a press advantage with hundreds of regional newspapers and vast resources accumulated during its decades of power. Yeltsin and his reformers were forced to deal with the emerging robber-barons of the Russian economy if they would have any funding or friendly press. Being in collusion with the new financial giants of Russia left an aura of corruption over the Yeltsin administration, and left many of the Russian people distrustful of democracy and capitalism. Menges argues that had the US and other Democracies used programs like the National Endowment for Democracy to fund the fledgling Democratic political parties and unions forming in Russia in the early 90's many of Yeltsin's problems could have been avoided. By only giving aid and forgiving loans without tying them to measurable, democratic reforms the US missed a chance and continues to this day to miss chances to bring about true Democracy in Russia.

Menges shows us that with China the US has had a very fantastical policy for several administrations now. When China decided that it was in its interests to open itself to foreign trade and investment in 1978 it did so to modernize its economy and military, not to spur on political reform. Continually, Western nations have misled themselves into believing that China is going to become less aggressive and more free. Although there was very limited local elections held in the early 1980's, these were squashed quickly when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) saw what some limited debate could start in Eastern Europe. Since the massacre in Tiananmen Square in 1989 the CCP has been sure to let no vestiges of political liberalization into the PRC; Further, with the fall of the USSR, China has continually named the US as its main enemy, and has implemented real policy aimed at curbing the gulf of advances that once separated the two nations. China has used its tremendous economic success to advance its military. China continually buys advanced weapons systems from the cash-strapped Russia, and has built a nuclear arsenal capable of hitting the territorial US, while at the same time being labeled by the CIA as the world's foremost supplier of WMD technology. China has provided regimes hostile to the US (Iran, N Korea, and Sadamm's Iraq) and Pakistan with the means to develop nuclear weapons and missile technology. In addition to this, in the 1990's China had stolen the most advanced US nuclear warhead technology, setting their nuclear program leap-years ahead of where it was.

In spite of all this, and his own 1993 Executive Order against it, then President Clinton removed the restrictions from granting China most favored nation trade status. In his own words, "Will we do more to advance the cause of human rights if China is isolated or of it is engaged...?" Throughout the 1990's the US/China relationship was characterized by the US conceding to China while getting nothing in return except hollow promises of non-proliferation and human rights. In that time China cracked down on freedom of religion in its borders and exported nuclear technology out of its borders. In addition, China has taken the dominant role in its relationship with Russia. Under President Putin, Russia has begun to take foreign policy stands with China, even participating in war games in 2001 which had Russia going so far as to strike US Asian forces with nuclear weapons in a US/China war over Taiwan.

Menges' realist solution comes in the way of policy. This is a growing problem, not an unfixable one. We must have a real China policy he tells us. Almost 40% of Chinese exports are to the US, this gives us considerable trading leverage with them. By using our sovereign right to bring our economic policy into harmony with our political policy, we could exert tremendous pressure on China to stop proliferating and to respect basic human rights. Russia too is dependant on US aid and trade. We need to encourage more freedom of press, and tie our benefits in Russia to democratic reforms. Further, Menges tells us, that we need to really fund the pro-Democracy parties in Russia and movements in China. He even goes as far as to say that funding of exiled Chinese democrats should allow them to form a government in exile. Most importantly, he tells us that we need to tell the truth about US intentions and those of China. Democracies need not hide what they want to do. The US has no territorial or hegemonic fantasies, yet China has littoral disputes with several neighbors. Being silent and becoming isolated has been the US's biggest mistake in its China policy. Being supplanted from the UN human rights council in favor of Sudan should illustrate how important being vocal is. The most important thing we can take away from Menges' work is that the US is in the business of human rights and freedom. Forsaking these for economics is counter to our own national security.

If one thinks that this is just another example of unreasonable paranoia about China--THINK AGAIN. This is written by the same gentleman who was very instrumental in successfully bringing down the Berlin Wall of the Cold War and knows how to deal with foreign affairs. One can clearly see that when reading this book, Dr. Menges is not a "China Basher" in any sense, but lays out a practical structure on how both sides can prevent a conflict with one another. Also, Dr. Menges presents the information in a non-biased manner in pointing out flaws that both Bush and Clinton have done to make the China Threat so grave. Go ahead and purchase the book. You will be pleasantly surprised at how researched it is.

The book is good and may actually be true (the author's theories seem believable), but a little too much doom and gloom for me. I had to put it down and move on to happy thoughts.

I'm a leading Sinologist in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and I have read few books as bellicose and biased as this one in my whole career as scholar. His assumptions, theories and conclusions are flawed. I don't believe this guy has ever been to the Middle Kingdom. He didn't even seem to have talked to serious scholars when writing the book - there is only abstract intel background. I dare to say that this book is a serious menace to American and Chinese Civilizations since it may influence American policymakers (I'm so glad I live in Brazil). This book is NOT SERIOUS; IRRESPONSIBLE; and DANGEROUS.

read "The Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party" at www.english.epochtimes.com. The Nine Commentaries is a series of articles which explores the history of the CCP. Since its publication in November 2004, over 2 million people have resigned from Party. See for yourself the truth behind the CCP.