Customer Reviews

China Shakes the World: A Titan's Rise and Troubled Future -- and the Challenge for America

5 star:		(43)
4 star:		(18)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

In 2005, the Financial Times instigated its Business Book of the Year award. Last year's winner was Thomas Friedman's "The World Is Flat", which is still in the best sellers lists 16 months after its release (and deservedly so). This year, James Kynge (in a prior life a reporter at the Financial Times) wins the award with this book.

In "China Shakes the World: A Titan's Rise and Troubled Future--and the Challege for America" (270 pages), Kynge spends the first part of the book bringing us a vivid picture of the awakening economic giant that China is becoming, and things will only get more vivid from here on. Interesting tidbits that the author brings us include that the architecture of the once-historic (and now revitalized) city of Chongqing is patterned after Chicago, itself once the fastest growing city; or that suicides among young rural women in China rank as one of its greatest social ills (500 per day, and 56 percent of the world's femal suicides occur in China). After going into a thorough anaylsis of the Italian textile industry's problems, Kynge makes the dry observation that "the simple, unpalatable truth is that in many areas of manufacturing, European companies cannot compete in the long run, no matter what countermeasures they or the EU may take".

As for China's "technology gap", Kynge observes that "the potent lure of the 1.3 billion person market, no matter how illusory it may be, has helped China to leapfrog some of the technology barriers that had stymied several of the Southeast Asian 'tiger' economies in the 80s and 90s". In the second part of the book, the author exposes some of the problems China faces. Corruption exists at every level, the gray and black economies play a large role in everyday life, and these factors have resulted in the "collapse of social trust". In the final chapter, Kynge has a lot to say about the "waichi" (friendship) concept in China (hint: it's not what ours is).

In all, this book is outstanding from beginning to end, and absolutely worth buying. Anything we can do to understand the challenge tha China presents is recommended, and this book certainly contributes to the debate.

James Kynge, Financial Times bureau chief in Beijing, discusses not only the challenges faced by America in this excellent new book, but those faced by China itself. One of these challenges is the enormous demographic and economic growth that China has experienced in the last 20 years. Today there are 40 cities with populations of over a million and another 53 with populations between 500,000 and a million. The city of Chongking is growing by about 300,000 a year. In 2005, 400 million people were urban and by 2050 another 600 to 700 million will be urbanized. The accompanying challenge is sustaining the 10% annual economic rate to support this population surge.

China has probably broken every record in the history of economic development and Kynge goes over many of the statistics that other China-watchers have already enumerated. What is unique about this book is that it gives equal time to the dark underside of this story. Front and center is the problem of pollution and environmental degradation. Of the 20 most polluted cities in the world, 16 can be found in China. A majority of the largest cities - 400 of the 668 largest - are experiencing water shortages. By 2050, two-thirds of China's ice field will have melted due to global warming. China is already the second largest producer of greenhouse gases after the US. The challenge will be growing without doing irreparable damage to the environment.

China a major and growing importer of natural resources and driving up global commodity prices. With their growing appetite for raw materials such as lumber, many of the world's rainforests in Indonesia, Myanmar, Central Africa, and Brazil are being logged - illegaly - to be sold in China. An area of rainforest about the size of Belgium disappears every year. Kynge's anecdote about missing manhole covers in surrounding countries illustrates the demand for steel. And no one should be surprised that the recent increase in global oil prices is a result of Chinese demand.

Kynge points out that as a developing country, not quite yet a superpower, and as a not fully capitalistic country, since the government still controls many of the levers of the economy; China has been able to evade superpower responsibility. In the case of Iran, China has been very reticent about halting nuclear development, only a reluctant supporter of sanctions for fear of disrupting their oil supply. Likewise, in the case of Sudan, China has looked the other way while ethnic cleansing is being conducted in Darfur. Worse yet, China is powerful enough as a manufacturer and lender to prevent anyone else from intervening as well, the US included.

China's growing size and influence will be one of the greatest challenges faced by the US and the rest of the world in the new century. In what Kynge calls the "compression of developmental time," Chinese workers are using the latest high-tech manufacturing technology and the most modern infrastructure, yet the average industial wage is only about $.50 an hour. Neither the West nor other countries can compete with this combination. How long this can be sustained is an open question. Kynge points out that they have an unbeatable advantage at the moment but that it cannot last.

China's rise has inspired fear at least since the time of Napoleon who originally uttered the phrase about China shaking the world. Kynge tells us that most of the Chinese he knows wish nothing more than to make a better life for themselves and do not see China as a superpower, let alone a threat to the world order. I agree, the Chinese are more aware of thei shortcomings and also more aware that superpower status is still elusive. Kynge is good at articulating the obstacles that the Chinese still face as they modernize their economy. In Napoleon's time China represented about one-third of the world's economy as opposed to 5% today. If they are going to achieve their former market share they still have a whole lot of shakin' to do.

James Kynge's 'China Shakes the World: A Titan's Rise and Troubled Future -- and the Challenge for America' is a completely authoritative and comprehensive study based upon extensive and reliable research of what has become industrialist China. Author Kynge does an outstanding job in presenting internal and external global issues China faces today, and how its needs combined with its resources, or lack of them, will direct China in the future. Kynge reviews how China's problems with its environmental resources, a severe pollution that is beginning to cripple its core, government corruption that actually has become part of the norm, a legal system that makes sacrifice to human rights and rights of freedom for its citizens, a Gestapo-like police force, and a media that bows to censorship all together are crutches that will force China to rely on global trade, and so, global cooperation. The author is also diligent in showing the mass resources and capability of China's manufacturing facilities, and why there is no end in sight to there economic boom. Clearly there is a prosperous balance that has developed between China and the United States, and China and Western Europe. Kynge presents the dynamic issues of this complex web in a way that is most educational, backed with unquestionable foundational data, reader friendly, and compelling . . .

I have lived in the US for 15 years and come to learn this. There is so many differences and misunderstandings between us, arguments and conflicts are inevitable in the years of globalization. While I give credit to the author for presenting all the issues in China, Mr. Kynge gave no perspectives or recommendations to either side. In contrast, Mrs. Meredith took a very positive approach, in her book 'The elephant and the dragon', by pointing out what the US government should do to mitigate the crisis. Mr. Kynge's attitude was pessimist and negative (e.g., the ending). The book gives misguidance to the readers especially for those who do not really know China. It may come from the author's personal experience and belief, but I want to tell him that living in China for 20 years and speaking fluent mandarin do not mean you truly understand the people and culture.

Recently there are many books talking about the rise of China and a genuine concern/conclusion/impression is China's 'Political instability' and its 'Military threat to the world'. To my opinion, the only 'Political instability' for the sake of people has to come from the gradual and peaceful self reform within the Chinese system under the influence/pressure from the west. Democracy has to be built upon a certain level of wealth of the society. Do you care whom to vote if you're worrying next meal for your family? Did the Russian people get a good democratic benefit after the collapse of their communism? To understand if China poses military treat to other nations, simply look back to the history. And a better question would be who has really been posing military threat to the world now?

First, I congratulate James Kynge on winning the FT/Goldman Sachs Business Book Award of the Year 2006. Among the five short-listed titles, China business in undoubtedly the most important topic and Kynge has addressed it in a beautiful way. Beautiful in a sense that even the general reader will find the book entertaining because of the way the author weaves the stories in the process of presenting China's impact on the world.

Given the sophisticated nature of this topic, Kynge deserves a five-star rating for beautifully setting the China scene for the 21st century.

But, like other practising business people who are involved in doing business in China, I feel that the task of dealing with the China challenge remains hugely difficult because Kynge did not attempt to offer any advice on how to think as well as what to do in order to succeed in China.

Recently, I also bought a copy of Dr Wei Wang' book The China Executive: Marrying Western and Chinese Strengths to Generate Profitability from Your Investment in China, which is exactly what I have been looking for to complement China Shakes the World.

Having revealed the nature of the China challenge, The China Executive provides a roadmap to success in China. Packed with pictures, examples and above all wisdom, the book offers huge practical value.

At the moment, I am guided by the book to turn around some of my company's poorly-performed businesses in China.

In short, to understand the business implications of China in the age of globalisation, read China Shakes the World; to learn how to do business with China, read The China Executive.

China Shakes the World is a brief anecdotal survey of China's rise as a great economic power. I took three major themes from the book:

- Many of the Chinese government's current policies are forced upon it. China's people have come to expect sustained high growth rates, and a failure to meet this expectation would have severe consequences for China's rulers. To encourage high growth rates, and because they are not democratically accountable, China's leaders simply ignore the adverse consequences of rapid growth, such as environmental damage. Yet the long-term consequences are inescapable. In the realm of foreign policy, China's most urgent need is access to natural resources. This need forces China to engage with some unsavory regimes and use its influence in the United Nations to protect them from international pressure.

- Much of China's current economic strength is the result of starting from a low base: while China has been at least a regional power for millennia, it has not done a good job of providing for its people. As a result, its rural population in particular is willing to undergo almost any hardship to escape grinding poverty. China's rapid economic growth can also be explained, in part, as a reaction to the loosening of artificial restraints on growth: e.g., totalitarian controls that prohibited any type of private enterprise until 1978 and China's isolation from the rest of the world during much of its history.

- China is pursuing the development strategy pioneered by Japan and the Asian tigers of climbing the technology ladder from relatively undemanding manufactures that rely on cheap labor (e.g., textiles) to more capital-intensive manufactures, specifically targeting machine tool manufacturing as a strategic industry. Because of China's extremely inexpensive, disciplined, and well-educated work force, and because its manufacturers emphasize market share over profit, there is little that the West can do to compete with China in many manufacturing sectors.

On these points, I found author James Krynge, a Financial Times reporter, to be convincing and reasonably entertaining. I found him to be less so when he indulges in some Lou Dobbs-style populism in decrying the effect of China's manufacturing prowess on U.S. manufacturers.

While James Kynge's book won't change the paradigm for how we understand China, it does offer some useful insights into the confluence of globalization and China's rise. As a reporter, Kynge relies heavily on anecdotes and stories, which make the book more palpable for those looking to get an overview of what China's growth and influence will mean for the world. The book is at its best when it tries to capture what China's rise has meant for individuals, from textile workers in Prato, Italy to a girl with a stolen identity in Zoucheng, China. On the other hand, because Kynge is trying to convey the contradictions inherent in this phenomenon, the question of what it all means gets lost. One giant piece missing from this story is what those with the power to exert influence on policy, markets, and economic or legal systems think about China's rise. China's stability depends on the ability of its leaders to continue to deliver the goodies of high levels of economic growth. All of China's domestic and international moves must be understood in this light.
The organization of the book is somewhat clumsy and misguided. For example, many of the chapters stray far off course, wandering in unrelated tangentials that detract from the arguments posited at the outset. For example, a chapter on the "Population Paradox" spends most of its time dealing with intellectual property rights. Likewise, a chapter on the "Collapse of Social Trust" digresses into a history of the Lenovo Company. Of greater import, however, if the overall argument, which seeks to amplify alarmist concerns. The first half of the book argues that China's rise will shake all corners of the globe, fundamentally altering at least the financial and economic system as presently constituted. The second half then argues that China's rise is built on shaky foundations. If Kynge truly believes that China's standing is precarious, should we really worry about how far its influence will spread? On the other hand, he could be arguing that China's potential collapse would be all the more devastating (both for China and the World) precisely because of how far it has risen.
The same story could be told in reverse: first talk of the tensions and contradictions festering in China today, and then discuss what China has - notwithstanding the aforementioned difficulties - been able to accomplish over the last three decades.
The book's final sentence offers the reader a dose of welcome realism notably absent from the overall tone of Kynge's writing: "China is perhaps too much wedded to the world, too deeply insinuated into its organizations and treaties, and too dependent on others to bite the hands that feed it." I couldn't agree more.

I have been going to and living in China for the last 26 years of my life. James Kynge's book, "China Shakes the World," is by far the clearest introduction to and explanation of the economic, political and social transformation -- with all the incumbent challenges -- occurring in China at the present time. This book should be read not only by businessmen, but also by anyone involved in China policy and anyone interested in China. It is accessible and, more important, makes complicated things understandable. It is subtle and non-ideological; and it is fair. I highly recommend it.

From the previous reviewers' comments, it is fair to say that there is controversy as to why this book has won the FT's 2006 Business Book Award.

I feel that the controversy stems from the name of the award rather than the book itself. It is a BUSINESS book award, and yet:

(1) For business people, whether practising or potential, you won't find any ideas and tools that can help you succeed in business with China;

(2) For economists, you won't find many thoroughly-researched hard data and facts about the scale and depth of the Chinese economy (well, there are some useful data and facts in the book but, with no apparent structure, such as chapter and section headings, to organize them, you have to read the whole book to dig out what is useful to you);

(3) Even when you are a general reader, reading this book does not help you understand the nature of China business, not to mention prepare you to engage in business with China.

But precisely because the book offers none of the above, it has won the award: it raises the world's awareness of China in a GRIPPING way.

Given the growing numbers of books on China that are being published but the inherently sophisticated nature of the subject (China being so many things that are intertwined so much that as soon as you adopt an analytical approach, something essential will be lost), I have found that it is difficult to complete reading one chapter of most such books - you quickly get lost or bored. Yet, I quickly finished reading China Shakes the World. What I have learnt from the book: China is the topic of the 21st century and everybody needs to make a start to understand China in some way.

Why a 4-star rating? While everything about China has beautifully been said through stories, the author (and the editor) finds that he has to use a diagram on page 18 - the only diagram in the whole book - to illustrate the name card of a Chinese owner of "a hole-in-the-wall noodle restaurant"!!! Surely, this name card is not the most important piece of information about China. In a certain sense, if China Shakes the World, this diagram, in my view, shakes the book off a 5-star mark!

To be more helpful, I also recommend business people like me The China Executive, which is an outstanding book because it has everything you will need to succeed in business in China or rather the China era of business. And because of the profound connection that the author has successfully made between the West and China, I predict that sooner or later this book will become the next business classic.

James Kynge analyzes and illustrates brilliantly the emergence of China as a major geopolitical power. He shows that the drastic shift in economic policies under Deng came from rural farmers who used creatively the concept `collective' to found private capitalist companies. The result is now a schizophrenic one party communist State with a capitalist economy. Its social stability can only be maintained with fast economic growth and job creation for its enormous population created by Mao's demographic policy.
The actual industrialization process causes massive population and gender shifts (urbanization resulting in a higher status for women), colossal energy demands (one Italy every year) and huge environmental problems (water, air). In a one party State, corruption and nepotism (with stolen identities) cannot be eradicated and provoke a declining trust in government.
Economically, corporations are mainly concerned with market share, not profits. They continue to (over) produce for the next surge in demand after every dip. They are also beginning to build consumer loyalty by branding their own products.
Internationally, the Chinese voracity created energy and commodities price surges worldwide. The end is not in sight. On the other hand, the bulk of the profits made with China's low cost factory army (no welfare) goes into the pockets of Western retail giants and their shareholders, leaving only 10 to 15 % for their Chinese counterparts. In the meantime, the deindustrialization of the Western world continues with massive job losses in the textile, car, computer and even the service industry.
Overall, however, China's economic development continues to benefit enormously world trade, notwithstanding the regularly surfacing accusations of protectionism, currency manipulation and rampant piracy. Politically, the problem of Taiwan is still not solved.
Mencius''ren' (benevolence) is not a basic ingredient of Chinese foreign policy, but the author believes that ultimately pragmatism and flexibility will have the upper hand.

This book is a must read for all those who want to understand the world we live in.